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Predicition
Prediction comparison

Asian Elite Women

26.03.2011 Chiangsaen district, Chiangrai Province THA
Race information and calculation basis
2011 Mekong River ASTC Aquathlon Asian Championships

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.03.2011 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.5
Mean swim error105.2 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history2
Details
0 / 1 Lea Coline Langit
PHI
+46 s
+0 s
Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Lea Coline Langit

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 46.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 22:19 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Long Hoi
MAC
+138 s
+74 s
Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Long Hoi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +138 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: 64.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 21:09 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Luo Yi Louis Chang
TPE
+145 s
+8 s
Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Luo Yi Louis Chang

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +145 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 137.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 22:16 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Leanne Szeto Shiu Yan
HKG
+115 s
+8 s
Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Leanne Szeto Shiu Yan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +115 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 107.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 22:58 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Joyce Cheung Ting Yan
HKG
+192 s
+75 s
Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Joyce Cheung Ting Yan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +192 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: 117.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 22:38 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Mattika Maneekaew
THA
+502 s
+342 s
Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Mattika Maneekaew

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +502 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +342 s
Fehler: 160.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 24:34 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Vahiiova Zuhra
UZB
+0 s
+406 s
Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Vahiiova Zuhra

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +406 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: 24:09 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Sarinlavam Somboonchan
THA
+0 s
Bike DNF
Show details
Prediction details: Sarinlavam Somboonchan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances

Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
To the end of cycling (group time):
Run:
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.