Prediction comparison

70-74 Female AG

22.10.2012 Auckland NZL

Race information and calculation basis

2012 Barfoot and Thompson Age-Group Triathlon World Championships Auckland

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.10.2012 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.8

Mean swim error433.8 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Elizabeth Brackett USA	+164 s +338 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Elizabeth Brackett Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +164 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +338 s Fehler: -174.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:05:47 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Sibyl Jacobson USA	+0 s +470 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Sibyl Jacobson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +470 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:02:16 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Peggy Mcdowell-Cramer USA	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Peggy Mcdowell-Cramer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:17:12 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Graciela Val USA	+80 s +863 s	G0 / G5	Show details Prediction details: Graciela Val Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +80 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +863 s Fehler: -783.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:14:04 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Lois Leon USA	+148 s +794 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Lois Leon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +148 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +794 s Fehler: -646.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:23:19 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Valma Lambert AUS	+0 s +566 s	G0 / G6	Show details Prediction details: Valma Lambert Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +566 s Fehler: -566.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 1:25:40 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total