Prediction comparison

Elite Women

21.04.2018 Rabat MAR

Race information and calculation basis

2018 Rabat ATU Triathlon African Championships and YOG Qualifier

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 21.04.2018 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 40.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.0

Mean swim error101.0 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

				Details
0 / 1	Gillian Sanders RSA	+43 s +0 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Gillian Sanders Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 43.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:39 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Anel Radford RSA	+17 s +3 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Anel Radford Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 14.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:54 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Shanae Williams RSA	+17 s +5 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Shanae Williams Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 12.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 45:40 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Jayme-Sue Vermaas RSA	+48 s +171 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Jayme-Sue Vermaas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +171 s Fehler: -123.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 48:06 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Ece Calp TUR	+99 s +412 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Ece Calp Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +99 s Time: Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +412 s Fehler: -313.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 46:56 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total

Placement

Swimming

Cycling

Running and total