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Prediction comparison

Semifinal 1 Junior Women

07.07.2018 Tiszaujvaros HUN
Race information and calculation basis
2018 Tiszaujvaros ETU Triathlon Junior European Cup

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.07.2018 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error10.6
Mean swim error17.9 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history2
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 Pia Totschnig
AUT
+40 s
+38 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Pia Totschnig

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:00 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Dorka Putnóczki
HUN
+2 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Dorka Putnóczki

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +2 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:28 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Fanni Soós
HUN
+53 s
+40 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Fanni Soós

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 13.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:14 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Kristina Jesenska
SVK
+17 s
+18 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Kristina Jesenska

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -1.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:20 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Ellie Hoitink
AUS
+30 s
+42 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Ellie Hoitink

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -12.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:25 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Hagar Cohen Kalif
ISR
+44 s
+12 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Hagar Cohen Kalif

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 32.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:46 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Dorottya Petrov
HUN
+44 s
+17 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Dorottya Petrov

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 27.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:31 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Samantha Whitting
AUS
+45 s
+33 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Samantha Whitting

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 12.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:37 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Anikó Botka
HUN
+42 s
+11 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Anikó Botka

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 31.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:51 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Bree Thistlethwait
AUS
+21 s
+13 s
G0 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Bree Thistlethwait

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 8.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (3 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:17 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Tjasa Vrtacic
SLO
+11 s
+48 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Tjasa Vrtacic

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: -37.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:40 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Anna Tóth
HUN
+10 s
+15 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Tóth

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: -5.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:16 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Elisa Terrinoni
ITA
+0 s
+9 s
G0 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Elisa Terrinoni

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (9 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:20 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Adrienn Hangya
HUN
+69 s
+53 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Adrienn Hangya

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 16.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 11:58 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Ashleigh Irvine-Smith
RSA
+39 s
+46 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Ashleigh Irvine-Smith

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -7.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:32 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Klaudia Petters
POL
+76 s
+52 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Klaudia Petters

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +76 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 24.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 12:05 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Anna Fricska
HUN
+0 s
+33 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Fricska

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:08 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Ho Yan Lo
HKG
+32 s
+39 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Ho Yan Lo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -7.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:02 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19 Ivana Granosa
CRO
+14 s
+34 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Ivana Granosa

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -20.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (5 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:14 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20 Wing To Cho
HKG
+40 s
+43 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Wing To Cho

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: -3.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:56 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21 Rozina Luca Laczkó
HUN
+158 s
+77 s
G0 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Rozina Luca Laczkó

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +158 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 81.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 13:25 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.