Prediction comparison

Semifinal 1 Elite Women

07.07.2018 Tiszaujvaros HUN

Race information and calculation basis

2018 Tiszaujvaros ITU Triathlon World Cup

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 07.07.2018 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 52.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error10.0

Mean swim error10.5 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Emma Jeffcoat AUS	+0 s +0 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Emma Jeffcoat Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 7 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Zsófia Kovács HUN	+17 s +5 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Zsófia Kovács Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +17 s Time: Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 12.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 10 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Anabel Knoll GER	+19 s +9 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Anabel Knoll Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 10.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Alessia Orla ITA	+13 s +5 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Alessia Orla Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 8.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 9 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Tamsyn Moana-Veale AUS	+15 s +17 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Tamsyn Moana-Veale Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +15 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +17 s Fehler: -2.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:16 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Sara Vilic AUT	+29 s +2 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Sara Vilic Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +29 s Time: Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +2 s Fehler: 27.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (5 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	India Lee GBR	+37 s +22 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: India Lee Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +22 s Fehler: 15.0 s H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 11 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Audrey Merle FRA	+32 s +32 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Audrey Merle Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +32 s Time: Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +32 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Luisa Baptista BRA	+36 s +24 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Luisa Baptista Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +24 s Fehler: 12.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Jasmin Weber SUI	+48 s +31 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Jasmin Weber Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +31 s Fehler: 17.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:53 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Alicja Ulatowska POL	+10 s +15 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Alicja Ulatowska Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +15 s Fehler: -5.0 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (6 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:17 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Erica Hawley BER	+38 s +37 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Erica Hawley Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +37 s Fehler: 1.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (4 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:41 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Nanami Nakayama JPN	+13 s +42 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Nanami Nakayama Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +13 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -29.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (4 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Madalena Amaral Almeida POR	+42 s +49 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Madalena Amaral Almeida Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +49 s Fehler: -7.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (4 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:50 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15	Noam Fishman ISR	+40 s +45 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Noam Fishman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: -5.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (4 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:07 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16	Camila Alonso Aradas ESP	+63 s +66 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Camila Alonso Aradas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -3.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17	Rachel Pearson USA	+61 s +87 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Rachel Pearson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +87 s Fehler: -26.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18	Marion Kim Mangrobang PHI	+40 s +46 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Marion Kim Mangrobang Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: -18 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -6.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:36 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19	Dóra Fuchs HUN	+52 s +66 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Dóra Fuchs Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 19 Deviation: -19 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +52 s Time: Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +66 s Fehler: -14.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 2 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (4 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:02 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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