Prediction comparison

U23 Men

26.09.2021 Molveno, Trentino, IT ITA

Race information and calculation basis

2021 Europe Triathlon XTERRA Cross Championships Dolomiti Paganella

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.09.2021 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error9.0

Mean swim error90.9 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history1

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Felix Forissier FRA	+47 s +8 s	G0 / G1	Show details Prediction details: Felix Forissier Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 39.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 34:45 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Jens Emil Sloth Nielsen DEN	+258 s +184 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Jens Emil Sloth Nielsen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +258 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +184 s Fehler: 74.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 37:24 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Federico Spinazzé ITA	+65 s +71 s	G0 / G2	Show details Prediction details: Federico Spinazzé Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +65 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +71 s Fehler: -6.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:19 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Will Crudgington GBR	+23 s +5 s	G0 / G3	Show details Prediction details: Will Crudgington Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 18.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:35 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Corentin Lefer FRA	+36 s +86 s	G0 / G5	Show details Prediction details: Corentin Lefer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +86 s Fehler: -50.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:36 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Lucas Goené NED	+87 s +4 s	G0 / G4	Show details Prediction details: Lucas Goené Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +87 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 83.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 43:31 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Colin Fleming NED	+61 s +137 s	G0 / G8	Show details Prediction details: Colin Fleming Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +61 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +137 s Fehler: -76.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:29 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Thibault Gire FRA	+132 s +231 s	G0 / G9	Show details Prediction details: Thibault Gire Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +132 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +231 s Fehler: -99.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:05 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Aaron Coppens BEL	+0 s +103 s	G0 / G7	Show details Prediction details: Aaron Coppens Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +103 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 43:02 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Peter Zacik SVK	+59 s +58 s	G0 / G6	Show details Prediction details: Peter Zacik Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +59 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: 1.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 45:41 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Paris Fellmann LUX	+402 s +401 s	G0 / G11	Show details Prediction details: Paris Fellmann Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +402 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +401 s Fehler: 1.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 11 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 40:18 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Quirijn Waaijenberg NED	+83 s +188 s	G0 / G11	Show details Prediction details: Quirijn Waaijenberg Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +83 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +188 s Fehler: -105.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 11 (2 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 42:08 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Hugo Bourjon FRA	+0 s +385 s	G0 / G10	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Bourjon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +385 s Fehler: -385.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:12 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Lewis Williams GBR	+196 s +279 s	G0 / G12	Show details Prediction details: Lewis Williams Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +196 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +279 s Fehler: -83.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 12 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:40 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15	Matus Kozlovsky SVK	+77 s +110 s	G0 / G13	Show details Prediction details: Matus Kozlovsky Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: -15 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +77 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +110 s Fehler: -33.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 13 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 38:25 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16	Hugo Jan Bosscher NED	+42 s +0 s	G0 / G15	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Jan Bosscher Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: -16 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +42 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 42.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 15 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 41:30 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17	Marek Cumpelik CZE	+0 s +360 s	G0 / G14	Show details Prediction details: Marek Cumpelik Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 17 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +360 s Fehler: -360.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 14 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 52:34 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

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