Prediction comparison

25-29 Male AG

23.09.2022 Bilbao ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2022 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Bilbao - Bizkaia

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 23.09.2022 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.3

Mean swim error46.7 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history4

				Details
0 / 1	Téo Katgely FRA	+0 s +1 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Téo Katgely Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: -1.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:43 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	William Atkinson GBR	+3 s +41 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: William Atkinson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +3 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: -38.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Axel De Poorter FRA	+45 s +45 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Axel De Poorter Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +45 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +45 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:10 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Oliver Thorogood GBR	+92 s +84 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Thorogood Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +92 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +84 s Fehler: 8.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Sam Barratt GBR	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Sam Barratt Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Jakub Brzóska POL	+47 s +58 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Jakub Brzóska Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +47 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +58 s Fehler: -11.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Pierre Delmotte FRA	+63 s +131 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Pierre Delmotte Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +63 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +131 s Fehler: -68.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:48 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Jose Carlos Lopez Ruiz ESP	+16 s +119 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Jose Carlos Lopez Ruiz Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +119 s Fehler: -103.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Victor Royo Calavera ESP	+0 s +128 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Victor Royo Calavera Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +128 s Fehler: -128.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Benjamin Rushton GBR	+151 s +195 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Benjamin Rushton Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +151 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +195 s Fehler: -44.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 19:01 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Valerio Chinea Mirzoyan ESP	+9 s +110 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Valerio Chinea Mirzoyan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +9 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +110 s Fehler: -101.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:57 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Michał Kostro POL	+0 s +146 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Michał Kostro Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +146 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:53 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Fernando Bueno Pascual ESP	+95 s +114 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Fernando Bueno Pascual Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +95 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +114 s Fehler: -19.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:56 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14	Javier Barba Santano ESP	+96 s +57 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Javier Barba Santano Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: -14 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +96 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +57 s Fehler: 39.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:16 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15	Rubén Marugán Renedo ESP	+0 s +183 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Rubén Marugán Renedo Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 15 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +183 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:56 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16	Alistair Thomson GBR	+0 s +296 s	Bike DNF	Show details Prediction details: Alistair Thomson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +296 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:28 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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