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40-44 Male AG

26.11.2022 Abu Dhabi UAE
Race information and calculation basis
2022 World Triathlon Age-Group Aquabike Championships Abu Dhabi

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.11.2022 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error11.3 s
Correct bike groups2/2
No history8
Within the 80% range100.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Thomas Winkelmann
GER
+18 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		2:37:11 2:37:29
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Winkelmann

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 22:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 18.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 183.5 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:37:11 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 2:37:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 2:37:11 (4:02 / km)
Total: 2:37:29
2 / 2 Victor Sánchez García
ESP
+202 s
+206 s
G2 / G2
correct 		2:42:33 2:45:55
Show details
Prediction details: Victor Sánchez García

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +202 s
Time: 25:07
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +206 s
Fehler: -4.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Gap ahead: 183.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 2:42:33 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 2:45:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 25:07 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 2:42:33 (4:10 / km)
Total: 2:45:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 22:07
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
About 179.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Rafał Korulczyk
POL
+0 s
+305 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Rafał Korulczyk

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:45
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +305 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 21:45 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Jared Gentile
USA
+0 s
+302 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Jared Gentile

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:45
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +302 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 21:45 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Cleyton Souza
USA
+0 s
+329 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Cleyton Souza

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:45
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +329 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 21:45 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Ferguson Richard
NZL
+0 s
+272 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Ferguson Richard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:45
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +272 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 21:45 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Brendan Cronin
IRL
+0 s
+289 s
G0 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Brendan Cronin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:45
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +289 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 21:45 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Rafał Piotrowski
POL
+0 s
+431 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Rafał Piotrowski

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:45
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +431 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 21:45 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Matthew Pilbeam
AUS
+0 s
+736 s
G0 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Pilbeam

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:45
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +736 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 21:45 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Darren Coombes
IRL
+0 s
+1131 s
G0 / G10
Show details
Prediction details: Darren Coombes

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:45
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1131 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 21:45 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.