Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Elite Women

05.11.2023 Lac Tunis TUN
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Africa Triathlon Cup Les Berges du Lac - Tunis

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.11.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 55/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 69.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.7
Mean swim error23.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.43 km/h
Correct bike groups5/13
No history0
Within the 80% range53.8 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Roksana Slupek
POL
+25 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 17:00
18:51
 53:36
Show details
Prediction details: Roksana Slupek

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 24.6 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.93 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:51 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 53:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:11 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: 53:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
2 / 6 Carlotta Bonacina
ITA
+31 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:19
20:14
 53:43
Show details
Prediction details: Carlotta Bonacina

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 19.7 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:14 (4:03 / km)
Error: −2:55 / −0:35 / km
Overall prediction: 53:43
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:54 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Total: 53:43
3 / 7 Adelaide Anna Badini Confalonieri
ITA
+12 s
+17 s
G2 / G1
 17:41
21:09
 54:17
Show details
Prediction details: Adelaide Anna Badini Confalonieri

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -5.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 6.7 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:09 (4:14 / km)
Error: −3:28 / −0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 54:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:11 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 54:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 4.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +7.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Tjasa Vrtacic
SLO
+23 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 17:41
19:45
 54:17
Show details
Prediction details: Tjasa Vrtacic

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 3–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:13
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Error: −2:04 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 54:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:11 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 54:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 2.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +20.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Alessia Orla
ITA
+25 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 17:43
19:34
 54:19
Show details
Prediction details: Alessia Orla

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 22.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.88 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Error: −1:51 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 54:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:11 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 17:43 (3:33 / km)
Total: 54:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 5.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +18.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 10 Julia Bröcker
GER
+35 s
+37 s
G3 / G3
correct 		17:20
20:00
 54:21
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Bröcker

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -2.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Error: −2:40 / −0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 54:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:26 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Total: 54:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 2 Katharina Möller
GER
+35 s
+19 s
G3 / G1
 18:01
19:22
 55:02
Show details
Prediction details: Katharina Möller

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 15.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 11.5 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:22 (3:52 / km)
Error: −1:21 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 55:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:26 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 55:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 0.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +34.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 5 Franka Rust
GER
+68 s
+25 s
G4 / G1
 17:21
19:57
 55:24
Show details
Prediction details: Franka Rust

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 93 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 10:58
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 42.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 40 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 21.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:57 (3:59 / km)
Error: −2:36 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 55:24
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:58 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:17 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Total: 55:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
About 25.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +42.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 8 Anna Zehnder
SUI
+69 s
+22 s
G4 / G2
 17:42
20:15
 55:45
Show details
Prediction details: Anna Zehnder

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 69 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 10:59
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 46.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 37.5 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Error: −2:33 / −0:31 / km
Overall prediction: 55:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:59 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:17 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Total: 55:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 40 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 11 Denise Cavallini
ITA
+18 s
+14 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:00
20:55
 56:36
Show details
Prediction details: Denise Cavallini

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–12
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.7 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.90 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:55 (4:11 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 56:36
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:11 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 20:00 (4:00 / km)
Total: 56:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
11 / 12 Imene Maldji
ALG
+46 s
+40 s
G4 / G4
correct 		19:31
21:58
 57:34
Show details
Prediction details: Imene Maldji

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 10–13
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 6.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.5 s
Gap behind: 21.1 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:58 (4:24 / km)
Error: −2:27 / −0:29 / km
Overall prediction: 57:34
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:17 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Total: 57:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 17.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Adriana Hornova
CZE
+112 s
+87 s
G5 / G5
correct 		19:07
23:53
 59:34
Show details
Prediction details: Adriana Hornova

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +112 s
Time: 11:42
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +87 s
Fehler: 25.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.02 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:53 (4:47 / km)
Error: −4:46 / −0:57 / km
Overall prediction: 59:34
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:42 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 38:35 (35.5 km/h)
Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Total: 59:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 83.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +28.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Elizabeth Carr
IRL
+106 s
+24 s
G4 / G3
19:54
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Carr

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +106 s
Time: 11:36
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 82.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 37.5 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 11:36 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:17 (37.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 91.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.