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Elite Women

26.02.2023 Maselspoort RSA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Africa Triathlon Cup Maselspoort

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 26.02.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 31/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 21.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 42.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error4.1
Mean swim error37.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.49 km/h
Correct bike groups6/13
No history1
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Details
1 / 2 Shanae Williams
RSA
+21 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:51
18:43
 51:38
Show details
Prediction details: Shanae Williams

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 21.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.3 s
Gap behind: 10.9 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 51:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:15 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Total: 51:38
2 / 1 Barbara De Koning
NED
+16 s
+1 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:33
18:19
 52:20
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 15.0 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 60 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.3 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 52:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:15 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Total: 52:20
3 / 3 Tanja Stroschneider
AUT
+32 s
+16 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:00
18:48
 52:47
Show details
Prediction details: Tanja Stroschneider

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 16.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.9 s
Gap behind: 8.0 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:15 (36.1 km/h)
Run: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Total: 52:47
4 / 4 Hannah Newman
RSA
+52 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 19:10
19:13
 53:50
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Newman

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 38.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.04 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 38.9 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:13 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 53:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:48 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Total: 53:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 16.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Marit Van Den Berg
NED
+46 s
+38 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:18
19:48
 53:58
Show details
Prediction details: Marit Van Den Berg

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:32
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 8.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:48 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 53:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:32 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:48 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Total: 53:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 20.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6 Bridget Theunissen
RSA
+40 s
+26 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:28
20:33
 54:08
Show details
Prediction details: Bridget Theunissen

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 7–10
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +40 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 14.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.0 s
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 34.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 23 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Error: −1:05 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 54:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:48 (35.6 km/h)
Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Total: 54:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 15 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Anika Visser
RSA
+91 s
+82 s
G3 / G3
correct 		21:11
20:37
 56:59
Show details
Prediction details: Anika Visser

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 11–12
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +91 s
Time: 11:17
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: 9.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 38.9 s
Gap behind: 32.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.47 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:11 (4:14 / km)
Historical basis: 4:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:37 (4:07 / km)
Error: +0:34 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 56:59
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:17 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:43 (35.1 km/h)
Run: 21:11 (4:14 / km)
Total: 56:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 55.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +35.8 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 13 Julie Staub
MRI
+131 s
+187 s
G4 / G5
 19:31
20:40
 59:56
Show details
Prediction details: Julie Staub

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 11–12
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +131 s
Time: 11:57
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +187 s
Fehler: -56.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 24.2 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:40 (4:08 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 59:56
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:57 (1:36 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:37 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Total: 59:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 105.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.2 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 10 Thana Groenewald
RSA
+155 s
+129 s
G4 / G3
 25:24
21:56
 1:05:49
Show details
Prediction details: Thana Groenewald

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +155 s
Time: 12:21
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +129 s
Fehler: 26.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 24.2 s
Gap behind: 72.8 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -3.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:24 (5:05 / km)
Historical basis: 5:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:56 (4:23 / km)
Error: +3:28 / +0:42 / km
Overall prediction: 1:05:49
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:21 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:37 (31.7 km/h)
Run: 25:24 (5:05 / km)
Total: 1:05:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 119.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Vicky Van Der Merwe
RSA
+228 s
+59 s
G4 / G3
20:11
Show details
Prediction details: Vicky Van Der Merwe

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +228 s
Time: 13:34
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 169.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 72.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:34 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 36:37 (31.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 191.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Emma O'Brien
IRL
+0 s
+66 s
G0 / G4
18:46
Show details
Prediction details: Emma O'Brien

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 32.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Jayme-Sue Vermaas
RSA
+51 s
+15 s
G2 / G3
22:18
Show details
Prediction details: Jayme-Sue Vermaas

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 36.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:18 (4:28 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:48 (35.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 14.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Pragnya Mohan
IND
+123 s
+103 s
G3 / G4
20:56
Show details
Prediction details: Pragnya Mohan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +123 s
Time: 11:49
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +103 s
Fehler: 20.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 32.0 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:56 (4:11 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:49 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:43 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 87.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 Mia Van Der Veen
RSA
+125 s
+184 s
G3 / G6
24:47
Show details
Prediction details: Mia Van Der Veen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +125 s
Time: 11:51
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +184 s
Fehler: -59.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 29.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:47 (4:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:51 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:43 (35.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 88.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +36.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.