Prediction comparison

Elite Men

01.04.2023 Troutbeck ZIM

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Africa Triathlon Cup Troutbeck

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.04.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 52/100 niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 63.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 89.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.2

Mean swim error25.9 s

Mean bike-speed error4.38 km/h

Correct bike groups4/19

No history0

Within the 80% range52.6 %

						Details
1 / 1	James Edgar IRL	+10 s +4 s	G1 / G1 correct	15:49 15:43	46:44	Show details Prediction details: James Edgar Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +10 s Time: 9:10 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +4 s Fehler: 5.8 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 89 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 56 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.4 s Gap behind: 4.4 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.36 km/h Running and total Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:10 / km Best comparable pace: 3:10 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 83 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km) Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km Overall prediction: 46:44 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:10 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:37 (39.9 km/h) Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km) Total: 46:44
2 / 10	Michał Oliwa POL	+18 s +11 s	G1 / G5	15:54 17:37	46:49	Show details Prediction details: Michał Oliwa Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–9 Top-10 probability: 99 % Result: 10 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +18 s Time: 9:18 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 6.7 s H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 65 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 43 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 2.1 s Gap behind: 5.4 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 32.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 7.40 km/h Running and total Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 60 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (3:31 / km) Error: −1:43 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 46:49 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:18 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:37 (39.9 km/h) Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km) Total: 46:49
3 / 5	Tyler Smith BER	+14 s +35 s	G1 / G2	15:57 16:38	46:52	Show details Prediction details: Tyler Smith Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 3–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +14 s Time: 9:14 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: -20.8 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 60 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.4 s Gap behind: 1.4 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 35.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.35 km/h Running and total Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km) Historical basis: 3:11 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:38 (3:20 / km) Error: −0:41 / −0:08 / km Overall prediction: 46:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:37 (39.9 km/h) Run: 15:57 (3:11 / km) Total: 46:52
4 / 6	Martin Demuth CZE	+7 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	16:11 17:26	47:06	Show details Prediction details: Martin Demuth Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 4–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: 9:07 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 7.4 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 78 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 2.4 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 35.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.52 km/h Running and total Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: −0:02 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km) Error: −1:15 / −0:15 / km Overall prediction: 47:06 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:37 (39.9 km/h) Run: 16:11 (3:14 / km) Total: 47:06
5 / 4	Ayan Beisenbayev KAZ	+23 s +43 s	G2 / G2 correct	15:19 16:29	47:27	Show details Prediction details: Ayan Beisenbayev Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 3–10 Top-10 probability: 93 % Result: 4 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +23 s Time: 9:23 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -19.9 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 25 % Speed: 38.4 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.4 s Gap behind: 4.2 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.86 km/h Running and total Run: 15:19 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:07 / km Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 7 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:29 (3:18 / km) Error: −1:10 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 47:27 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 31:45 (38.4 km/h) Run: 15:19 (3:04 / km) Total: 47:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 1.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 8	Temirlan Temirov KAZ	+16 s +40 s	G1 / G3	16:48 17:40	47:43	Show details Prediction details: Temirlan Temirov Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 3–14 Top-10 probability: 64 % Result: 8 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +16 s Time: 9:16 Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -24.4 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (5 people) Gruppe 1: 61 % Speed: 39.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.4 s Gap behind: 2.1 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 34.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.63 km/h Running and total Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km) Historical basis: 3:23 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 (3:32 / km) Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: 47:43 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:37 (39.9 km/h) Run: 16:48 (3:22 / km) Total: 47:43
7 / 7	Vitalii Vorontsov UKR	+38 s +47 s	G4 / G4 correct	15:22 16:24	48:11	Show details Prediction details: Vitalii Vorontsov Placement Prediction: 7 80% range: 3–12 Top-10 probability: 84 % Result: 7 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +47 s Fehler: -9.0 s H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 1.34 %, Sicherheit 41 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.6 s Gap behind: 0.4 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 34.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.90 km/h Running and total Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km) Historical basis: 3:05 / km Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 47 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:24 (3:17 / km) Error: −1:02 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 48:11 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.9 km/h) Run: 15:22 (3:04 / km) Total: 48:11 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 16.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 3	Jorge Alarcon Familiar MEX	+37 s +43 s	G4 / G2	15:40 16:23	48:29	Show details Prediction details: Jorge Alarcon Familiar Placement Prediction: 8 80% range: 6–12 Top-10 probability: 66 % Result: 3 Deviation: 5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +43 s Fehler: -5.9 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 3 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.7 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 2 (3 people) Speed: 35.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.36 km/h Running and total Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:23 (3:17 / km) Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km Overall prediction: 48:29 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.9 km/h) Run: 15:40 (3:08 / km) Total: 48:29 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 15.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 11	Oliver Janny AUT	+34 s +46 s	G4 / G5	16:03 17:45	48:52	Show details Prediction details: Oliver Janny Placement Prediction: 9 80% range: 7–12 Top-10 probability: 39 % Result: 11 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -11.9 s H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 11 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 6.8 s Gap behind: 0.3 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 32.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.02 km/h Running and total Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km) Historical basis: 3:12 / km Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km) Error: −1:42 / −0:20 / km Overall prediction: 48:52 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.9 km/h) Run: 16:03 (3:13 / km) Total: 48:52 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 12.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 19	Mohanad Elshafei EGY	+37 s +53 s	G4 / G11	16:15 20:16	49:04	Show details Prediction details: Mohanad Elshafei Placement Prediction: 10 80% range: 10–14 Top-10 probability: 16 % Result: 19 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +37 s Time: 9:37 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +53 s Fehler: -15.6 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 0.6 s Result: Group 11 (1 people) Speed: 28.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 9.53 km/h Running and total Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:14 / km Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 98 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:16 (4:03 / km) Error: −4:01 / −0:48 / km Overall prediction: 49:04 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.9 km/h) Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Total: 49:04 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 15.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 2	Dylan Nortje RSA	+27 s +41 s	G3 / G1	16:44 16:12	49:15	Show details Prediction details: Dylan Nortje Placement Prediction: 11 80% range: 9–14 Top-10 probability: 34 % Result: 2 Deviation: 9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 9:27 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +41 s Fehler: -13.7 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 14 % Speed: 38.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 4.2 s Gap behind: 6.8 s Result: Group 1 (3 people) Speed: 36.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.01 km/h Running and total Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km) Historical basis: 3:24 / km Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -1.52 %, Sicherheit 94 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:12 (3:14 / km) Error: +0:32 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: 49:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (38.1 km/h) Run: 16:44 (3:21 / km) Total: 49:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 5.7 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 9	Murat Zhaken KAZ	+35 s +55 s	G4 / G5	16:35 17:35	49:24	Show details Prediction details: Murat Zhaken Placement Prediction: 12 80% range: 11–14 Top-10 probability: 4 % Result: 9 Deviation: 3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 9:35 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -19.6 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 89 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 1.0 s Gap behind: 1.7 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 33.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.81 km/h Running and total Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:18 / km Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 89 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km Overall prediction: 49:24 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.9 km/h) Run: 16:35 (3:19 / km) Total: 49:24 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 13.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 14	Jean Gael Laurent L`entete MRI	+38 s +50 s	G4 / G7	17:48 18:56	50:37	Show details Prediction details: Jean Gael Laurent L`entete Placement Prediction: 13 80% range: 14–17 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 14 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +38 s Time: 9:38 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: -11.6 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.4 s Gap behind: 9.6 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 32.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.83 km/h Running and total Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:47 / km) Error: −1:08 / −0:14 / km Overall prediction: 50:37 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.9 km/h) Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Total: 50:37 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 16.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 12	Noah Künz AUT	+34 s +55 s	G4 / G5	18:46 17:51	51:35	Show details Prediction details: Noah Künz Placement Prediction: 14 80% range: 14–18 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: 2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +34 s Time: 9:34 Pace: 1:17 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: -20.6 s H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 % Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 8 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.3 s Gap behind: 1.0 s Result: Group 5 (4 people) Speed: 33.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.90 km/h Running and total Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:46 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 87 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km) Error: +0:55 / +0:11 / km Overall prediction: 51:35 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:34 (1:17 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.9 km/h) Run: 18:46 (3:45 / km) Total: 51:35 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 12.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 15	Seifeddine Selmi TUN	+64 s +101 s	G5 / G8	17:04 18:10	55:51	Show details Prediction details: Seifeddine Selmi Placement Prediction: 15 80% range: 14–19 Top-10 probability: 3 % Result: 15 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +64 s Time: 10:04 Pace: 1:21 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +101 s Fehler: -37.3 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.10 %, Sicherheit 8 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.3 s Gap behind: 9.0 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 32.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.21 km/h Running and total Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km) Historical basis: 3:26 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (3:38 / km) Error: −1:06 / −0:13 / km Overall prediction: 55:51 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:43 (32.2 km/h) Run: 17:04 (3:25 / km) Total: 55:51 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 42.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 18	Oussama Berrouane ALG	+53 s +61 s	G5 / G9	17:55 19:24	56:42	Show details Prediction details: Oussama Berrouane Placement Prediction: 16 80% range: 16–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 18 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +53 s Time: 9:53 Pace: 1:19 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +61 s Fehler: -7.6 s H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 89 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.2 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 5.4 s Gap behind: 10.3 s Result: Group 9 (3 people) Speed: 31.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.89 km/h Running and total Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 89 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:24 (3:53 / km) Error: −1:29 / −0:18 / km Overall prediction: 56:42 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:53 (1:19 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 37:43 (32.2 km/h) Run: 17:55 (3:35 / km) Total: 56:42 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:21 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 31.8 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16	Siefeldeen Ismail EGY	+214 s +55 s	G6 / G9	15:48 17:33	1:02:17	Show details Prediction details: Siefeldeen Ismail Placement Prediction: 17 80% range: 16–19 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 16 Deviation: 1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +214 s Time: 12:34 Pace: 1:41 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +55 s Fehler: 158.9 s H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 42 % Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 141.2 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (3 people) Speed: 31.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.31 km/h Running and total Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Historical basis: 3:09 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 99 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:31 / km) Error: −1:45 / −0:21 / km Overall prediction: 1:02:17 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:34 (1:41 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 42:55 (27.0 km/h) Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km) Total: 1:02:17 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 192.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13	Matthew Greer RSA	+48 s +107 s	G4 / G9	17:31		Show details Prediction details: Matthew Greer Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 9:48 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +107 s Fehler: -59.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (8 people) Gruppe 1: 13 % Speed: 37.9 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.6 s Gap behind: 5.4 s Result: Group 9 (3 people) Speed: 31.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 6.02 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 32:01 (37.9 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 26.4 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17	Eloi Adjavon TOG	+73 s +109 s	G6 / G10	18:37		Show details Prediction details: Eloi Adjavon Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 17 Deviation: -17 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +73 s Time: 10:13 Pace: 1:22 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +109 s Fehler: -36.3 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 27.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 9.0 s Gap behind: 141.2 s Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 31.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -4.27 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:37 (3:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 10:13 (1:22 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 42:55 (27.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 9:22 Pace: 1:15 / 100 m About 51.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +21.6 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

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