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Elite Men

11.06.2023 Chinchiná COL
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Americas Triathlon Cup Chinchiná

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.06.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 49/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 58.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 70.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error18.9
Mean swim error17.3 s
Mean bike-speed error9.62 km/h
Correct bike groups9/36
No history5
Within the 80% range46.3 %
Details
1 / 19 Felipe Santiago Ladino Herrera
COL
+61 s
+77 s
G3 / G4
 0:01 29:23
Show details
Prediction details: Felipe Santiago Ladino Herrera

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 13–26
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 9:00
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -16.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 4 (8 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 0:01 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:59 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 29:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:00 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 0:01 (4:13 / km)
Total: 29:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 17.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Felix Duchampt
ROU
+52 s
+44 s
G2 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Felix Duchampt

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–21
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 8:51
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 8.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 72 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:53 / km)
Historical basis: 1:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:43 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:51 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 8.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Vitalii Vorontsov
UKR
+42 s
+50 s
G1 / G1
correct
Show details
Prediction details: Vitalii Vorontsov

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–18
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -7.8 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:54 / km)
Historical basis: 1:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:35 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:41 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 3 Andree Buc
CHI
+51 s
+42 s
G2 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Andree Buc

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–26
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 8:50
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 8.6 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:41 / km)
Historical basis: 1:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:32 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:05 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:50 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 7.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero
COL
+42 s
+34 s
G1 / G1
correct
Show details
Prediction details: Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–23
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 8:41
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:10 / km)
Historical basis: 2:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:09 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:41 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5 Andres Barrionuevo
ECU
+48 s
+40 s
G2 / G1
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Barrionuevo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–17
Top-10 probability: 44 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 8:47
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 7.8 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -1.90 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:04 / km)
Historical basis: 2:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:47 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 4.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Brian Moya
COL
+36 s
+46 s
G1 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Brian Moya

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–15
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 8:35
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -9.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:00 / km)
Historical basis: 2:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:35 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7 Flavio Morandini
ARG
+33 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct
Show details
Prediction details: Flavio Morandini

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 8:32
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 19.3 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:05 / km)
Historical basis: 2:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:32 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 8 Juan Giraldo Gomez
COL
+75 s
+59 s
G3 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Giraldo Gomez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–30
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: 15.9 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 85 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.1 s
Gap behind: 6.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:47 / km)
Historical basis: 1:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 31.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Roee Zoarets
ISR
+50 s
+48 s
G2 / G2
correct
Show details
Prediction details: Roee Zoarets

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–25
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +50 s
Time: 8:49
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 2.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 43 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:02 / km)
Historical basis: 2:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:57 / km
Trend: −0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:49 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10 Carter Stuhlmacher
USA
+34 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct
Show details
Prediction details: Carter Stuhlmacher

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 8:33
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 34.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 1.09 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 35.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:50 / km)
Historical basis: 1:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:04 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 8:33 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 11 Arturo Guzmán Medina
COL
+53 s
+52 s
G2 / G2
correct
Show details
Prediction details: Arturo Guzmán Medina

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–31
Top-10 probability: 41 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 8:52
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +52 s
Fehler: 1.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:52 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 9.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Hugo Mario Ruiz Dimate
COL
+56 s
+44 s
G2 / G2
correct
Show details
Prediction details: Hugo Mario Ruiz Dimate

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–27
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 8:55
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 12.0 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:03 / km)
Historical basis: 2:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:55 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 12.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 13 Edgar Andrés Bermúdez Muñoz
COL
+59 s
+40 s
G3 / G2
Show details
Prediction details: Edgar Andrés Bermúdez Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 18–27
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 8:58
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 19.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:04 / km)
Historical basis: 2:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:04 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:58 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 15.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 Andres Gras
CHI
+65 s
+54 s
G3 / G3
correct
Show details
Prediction details: Andres Gras

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 19–29
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 9:04
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 11.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 66 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:50 / km)
Historical basis: 1:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:47 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:04 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 21.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 15 Ibrahim Alucin
ARG
+45 s
+33 s
G2 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Ibrahim Alucin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 11.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:09 / km)
Historical basis: 2:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:45 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 1.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16 Ivan Anzaldo
ARG
+43 s
+57 s
G1 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Anzaldo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–24
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -13.6 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 4 (8 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:42 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:42 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 17 Esteban Tibocha
COL
+66 s
+42 s
G3 / G3
correct
Show details
Prediction details: Esteban Tibocha

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–32
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 9:05
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 24.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.51 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:45 / km)
Historical basis: 1:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:44 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:05 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 22.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 18 João Teixeira Alvares
BRA
+57 s
+56 s
G2 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: João Teixeira Alvares

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 16–28
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: 0.8 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:47 / km)
Historical basis: 1:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:22 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 13.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 20 Pablo Herrera
CRC
+39 s
+38 s
G1 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Pablo Herrera

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 8:38
Pace: 1:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 0.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 4 (8 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:51 / km)
Historical basis: 1:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:38 (1:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 21 Valentino Agnelli
ARG
+57 s
+43 s
G2 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Valentino Agnelli

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–29
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 8:56
Pace: 1:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 14.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 52 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 4 (8 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.51 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:19 / km)
Historical basis: 2:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:58 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:56 (1:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 13.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Connor Oats
USA
+131 s
+117 s
G5 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Connor Oats

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 35–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +131 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +117 s
Fehler: 14.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -1.95 %, Sicherheit 36 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 39.2 s
Gap behind: 101.7 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:05 / km)
Historical basis: 2:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:40 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:44 (40.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 87.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Tiago Muñoz
ARG
+92 s
+61 s
G4 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Tiago Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 30–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -23

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: 31.1 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 39 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.9 s
Gap behind: 39.2 s
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:54 / km)
Historical basis: 1:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:19 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 48.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 24 Brener Valencia Nuñez
PER
+62 s
+53 s
G3 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Brener Valencia Nuñez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–30
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 9:01
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +53 s
Fehler: 8.5 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.74 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:13 / km)
Historical basis: 2:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:01 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 18 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25 Jacobo Rios
COL
+47 s
+49 s
G2 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Jacobo Rios

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–24
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (8 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 3.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26 Bejamin Espinoza Fuente
CHI
+69 s
+72 s
G3 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Bejamin Espinoza Fuente

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 28–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: -3.2 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 6.1 s
Result: Group 4 (8 people)
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:11 / km)
Historical basis: 2:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:49 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:08 (42.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 25.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 27 Benjamín Adriazola
CHI
+30 s
+77 s
G1 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamín Adriazola

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–16
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 8:29
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: -47.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 80 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.3 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:53 / km)
Historical basis: 1:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:29 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 28 Cristóbal Baeza Muñoz
CHI
+30 s
+64 s
G1 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Cristóbal Baeza Muñoz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–26
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -28

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 8:29
Pace: 1:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -34.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:56 / km)
Historical basis: 1:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:49 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:29 (1:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 29 Hernando Serna Cordoba
COL
+81 s
+74 s
G4 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Hernando Serna Cordoba

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 31–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: 7.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.4 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 37.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 30 Thomas Cano Guzman
COL
+45 s
+69 s
G2 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Cano Guzman

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -30

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 8:44
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: -24.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 6 (3 people)
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 11.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:36 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 8:44 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 1.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 31 David Aguirre Cardenas
COL
+0 s
+60 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: David Aguirre Cardenas

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 37–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 7:59
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (8 people)
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:59 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 7:59 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 32 Allan Naranjo Avendaño
CRC
+49 s
+66 s
G2 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Allan Naranjo Avendaño

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–32
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -32

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 8:48
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -16.9 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 2.45 %, Sicherheit 74 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:55 / km)
Historical basis: 1:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:08 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:48 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 5.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 33 Santiago Cano Cardona
COL
+0 s
+72 s
G0 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Santiago Cano Cardona

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 38–38
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 7:59
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:03 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 7:59 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 34 Reese Vannerson
USA
+25 s
+47 s
G1 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Reese Vannerson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 8:24
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -22.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.0 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 4 (8 people)
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: (1:59 / km)
Historical basis: 1:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 1:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:04 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:24 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 35 Rafael Martinez
DOM
+23 s
+57 s
G1 / G12
Show details
Prediction details: Rafael Martinez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–19
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -35

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 8:22
Pace: 1:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: -34.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 44.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.0 s
Result: Group 12 (2 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 14.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:30 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:22 (1:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 26:56 (44.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 36 Angel David Cruz Hoyos
COL
+0 s
+71 s
G0 / G10
Show details
Prediction details: Angel David Cruz Hoyos

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 39–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 7:59
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:36 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 7:59 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 37 Cristopher Alexander Cardenas Jimenez
VEN
+47 s
+45 s
G2 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Cristopher Alexander Cardenas Jimenez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–25
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -37

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 8:46
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 1.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 44.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 30.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 13.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:05 / km)
Historical basis: 2:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:54 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 8:46 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:01 (44.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 3.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 38 Juan Camilo Salazar Cardona
COL
+0 s
+126 s
G0 / G12
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Camilo Salazar Cardona

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 40–40
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 7:59
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +126 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (2 people)
Speed: 31.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:32 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 7:59 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 39 Juan Jose Cadavid
COL
+233 s
+105 s
G6 / G11
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Jose Cadavid

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 36–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -39

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +233 s
Time: 11:52
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +105 s
Fehler: 128.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 101.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 9.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:58 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:52 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:43
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 189.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 40 Fabian Roman
PUR
+85 s
+87 s
G4 / G13
Show details
Prediction details: Fabian Roman

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 32–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -40

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 9:24
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +87 s
Fehler: -1.8 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 6.9 s
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 12.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: (2:15 / km)
Historical basis: 2:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:05 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:24 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:54 (41.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 8:42
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
About 41.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +43.5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 41 Tomas andres Leguizamon
COL
+0 s
+136 s
G0 / G14
Show details
Prediction details: Tomas andres Leguizamon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 41–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 41
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 7:59
Pace: 1:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +136 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 28.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:33 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 7:59 (1:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.