Prediction comparison

Elite Men

11.02.2023 La Guaira VEN

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Americas Triathlon Cup La Guaira

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 11.02.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Swim distance in metres

Bike distance in metres

Run distance in metres

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 8/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 15.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 61.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.0

Mean swim error33.6 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

					Details
0 / 1	Rodrigo Gonzalez Lopez MEX	+41 s +50 s	G0 / G1	32:26	Show details Prediction details: Rodrigo Gonzalez Lopez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +50 s Fehler: -9.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 33 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 25 % Ergebnis Lauf: 34:20 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 32:26 (3:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Irving Perez MEX	+25 s +0 s	G0 / G1	35:00	Show details Prediction details: Irving Perez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +25 s Time: Pace: 1:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 25.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:33 / km Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.24 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:42 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 35:00 (3:30 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Ramón Armando Matute ECU	+7 s +1 s	G0 / G1	34:44	Show details Prediction details: Ramón Armando Matute Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +7 s Time: Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1 s Fehler: 6.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 34:44 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 11 % Ergebnis Lauf: 35:56 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:44 (3:28 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero COL	+30 s +48 s	G0 / G1	34:00	Show details Prediction details: Carlos Javier Quinchara Forero Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +30 s Time: Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +48 s Fehler: -18.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 18 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 34:00 (3:24 / km) Historical basis: 3:22 / km Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 36:49 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:00 (3:24 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Gabriel Terán Carvajal ECU	+21 s +44 s	G0 / G1	34:28	Show details Prediction details: Gabriel Terán Carvajal Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +21 s Time: Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +44 s Fehler: -23.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.13 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:25 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:28 (3:27 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Federico Scarabino URU	+40 s +46 s	G0 / G1		Show details Prediction details: Federico Scarabino Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +46 s Fehler: -6.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 37:47 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Gültigin Er TUR	+19 s +40 s	G0 / G2	38:48	Show details Prediction details: Gültigin Er Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +19 s Time: Pace: 1:14 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +40 s Fehler: -21.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 38:48 (3:53 / km) Historical basis: 3:54 / km Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 38:00 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 38:48 (3:53 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Luis Miguel Velasquez Ramos VEN	+41 s +42 s	G0 / G1	34:29	Show details Prediction details: Luis Miguel Velasquez Ramos Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: Pace: 1:15 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: -1.0 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 13 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (7 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 34:29 (3:27 / km) Historical basis: 3:27 / km Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 9 % Ergebnis Lauf: 40:12 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:29 (3:27 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Yhousman David Perdomo Peña VEN	+26 s +39 s	G0 / G3		Show details Prediction details: Yhousman David Perdomo Peña Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: -13.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 37:10 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Thomas Castañeda Maldonado ARG	+36 s +79 s	G0 / G4	34:48	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Castañeda Maldonado Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +36 s Time: Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +79 s Fehler: -43.0 s H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 22 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: 34:48 (3:29 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 14 % Ergebnis Lauf: 37:00 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 34:48 (3:29 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Alejandro Rodriguez Diez CUB	+26 s +117 s	G0 / G5		Show details Prediction details: Alejandro Rodriguez Diez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +26 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +117 s Fehler: -91.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 39:07 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Samuel Abraham Piña Barco VEN	+50 s +65 s	G0 / G6		Show details Prediction details: Samuel Abraham Piña Barco Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: -12 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +50 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +65 s Fehler: -15.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 44:32 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Gian Franco Mario Farnetano VEN	+70 s +236 s	G0 / G7		Show details Prediction details: Gian Franco Mario Farnetano Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +70 s Time: Pace: Ergebnisabstand: +236 s Fehler: -166.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 0.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 50:51 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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