Prediction comparison

PTS2 Men

12.03.2023 Sarasota USA

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Sarasota

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.03.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 25.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error3.0

Mean swim error124.8 s

Mean bike-speed error4.21 km/h

Correct bike groups3/5

No history3

Within the 80% range25.0 %

						Details
1 / 2	Mohamed Lahna USA	+106 s +123 s	G2 / G2 correct	22:51 22:32	55:12	Show details Prediction details: Mohamed Lahna Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +106 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +123 s Fehler: -17.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 35.9 km/h Gap ahead: 106.0 s Gap behind: 45.9 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 36.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.35 km/h Running and total Run: 22:51 (4:34 / km) Historical basis: 4:34 / km Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:32 (4:30 / km) Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km Overall prediction: 55:12 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:55 (1:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:35 (35.9 km/h) Run: 22:51 (4:34 / km) Total: 55:12 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:13 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m About 102.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3	Adam Popp USA	+152 s +261 s	G3 / G3 correct	21:50 22:00	58:59	Show details Prediction details: Adam Popp Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +152 s Time: 14:41 Pace: 1:59 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +261 s Fehler: -109.1 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 45.9 s Gap behind: 218.1 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 34.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -2.16 km/h Running and total Run: 21:50 (4:22 / km) Historical basis: 4:22 / km Best comparable pace: 4:22 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 22:00 (4:24 / km) Error: −0:10 / −0:02 / km Overall prediction: 58:59 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 14:41 (1:59 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:59 (31.8 km/h) Run: 21:50 (4:22 / km) Total: 58:59 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:13 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m About 148 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1	Mark Barr USA	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	21:21		Show details Prediction details: Mark Barr Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:09 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 89 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 34.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.84 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:21 (4:16 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:09 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 4	Kyle Stepp USA	+0 s +273 s	G0 / G4	26:49		Show details Prediction details: Kyle Stepp Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:09 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +273 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 30.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:49 (5:22 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:09 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Cahin Perez USA	+370 s +444 s	G3 / G5	24:54		Show details Prediction details: Cahin Perez Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +370 s Time: 18:19 Pace: 2:29 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +444 s Fehler: -74.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 31.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 218.1 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 30.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:54 (4:59 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 18:19 (2:29 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:59 (31.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 12:13 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m About 366.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6	Jorge Torres-Hinojoza USA	+0 s +268 s	G0 / G6	24:59		Show details Prediction details: Jorge Torres-Hinojoza Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:09 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +268 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 28.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:59 (5:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:09 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Diego Alfonso Lares García MEX	+0 s +424 s	G1 / G7	29:15		Show details Prediction details: Diego Alfonso Lares García Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:09 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +424 s Fehler: -424.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 88 % Speed: 40.7 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 106.0 s Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 29.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 11.74 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 29:15 (5:51 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 12:09 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 26:58 (40.7 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 8	Prince Mahboubian USA	+0 s +318 s	G0 / G8	36:26		Show details Prediction details: Prince Mahboubian Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:09 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +318 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 26.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 36:26 (7:17 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:09 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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