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PTVI Women

12.03.2023 Sarasota USA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Americas Triathlon Para Championships Sarasota

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 12.03.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.8
Mean swim error104.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.49 km/h
Correct bike groups1/4
No history0
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Details
1 / 4 Deborah Chucoski B3
USA
+147 s
+165 s
G2 / G3
 24:01
24:52
 57:40
Show details
Prediction details: Deborah Chucoski B3

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +147 s
Time: 15:54
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +165 s
Fehler: -18.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 123.7 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:01 (4:48 / km)
Historical basis: 4:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:52 (4:58 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 57:40
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 15:54 (2:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:12 (35.2 km/h)
Run: 24:01 (4:48 / km)
Total: 57:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:54
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 119.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Leticia Freitas B1
BRA
+151 s
+85 s
G3 / G4
 24:41
23:00
 1:01:03
Show details
Prediction details: Leticia Freitas B1

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +151 s
Time: 15:58
Pace: 2:09 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 66.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 144.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 24:41 (4:56 / km)
Historical basis: 4:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:00 (4:36 / km)
Error: +1:41 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:01:03
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:58 (2:09 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:27 (32.5 km/h)
Run: 24:41 (4:56 / km)
Total: 1:01:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:54
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 124.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 McClain Hermes B1
USA
+295 s
+0 s
G3 / G2
24:24
Show details
Prediction details: McClain Hermes B1

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +295 s
Time: 18:22
Pace: 2:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 295.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 144.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:24 (4:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 18:22 (2:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:27 (32.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:54
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 268.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +26.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Jessica Tuomela B1
CAN
+23 s
+62 s
G1 / G1
correct
28:43
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Tuomela B1

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 13:50
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: -39.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 123.7 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:43 (5:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 13:50 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:09 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable