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Elite Women

28.05.2023 Osaka JPN
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Asia Triathlon Cup Osaka

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 28.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 60.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.8
Mean swim error20.0 s
Mean bike-speed error1.31 km/h
Correct bike groups4/24
No history1
Within the 80% range44.0 %
Details
1 / 4 Manami Hayashi
JPN
+41 s
+22 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:23
18:11
 49:22
Show details
Prediction details: Manami Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–6
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: 18.6 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.58 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.38 %, Sicherheit 99 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 49:22
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Total: 49:22
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 23.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 12 Reika Shiraishi
JPN
+32 s
+38 s
G2 / G3
 18:19
18:41
 50:18
Show details
Prediction details: Reika Shiraishi

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–10
Top-10 probability: 91 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:41 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:18
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:19 (3:40 / km)
Total: 50:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 15 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Sarika Nakayama
JPN
+32 s
+5 s
G2 / G1
 18:40
19:18
 50:39
Show details
Prediction details: Sarika Nakayama

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–12
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 26.7 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 50:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Total: 50:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 14.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 3 Miyu Sakai
JPN
+41 s
+4 s
G2 / G1
 18:48
18:40
 50:47
Show details
Prediction details: Miyu Sakai

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–16
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 36.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 5.2 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 97 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:40 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:47
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 50:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 24 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 19 Erika Tanno
JPN
+34 s
+38 s
G2 / G3
 18:54
19:17
 50:53
Show details
Prediction details: Erika Tanno

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 49 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -4.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.57 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:17 (3:51 / km)
Error: −0:23 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Total: 50:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 16.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 2 Yuka Sato
JPN
+21 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 18:57
18:16
 50:56
Show details
Prediction details: Yuka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:41
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 19.3 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 75 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 50:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:41 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Total: 50:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 4.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 1 Niina Kishimoto
JPN
+27 s
+6 s
G2 / G1
 19:03
17:52
 51:02
Show details
Prediction details: Niina Kishimoto

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–14
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:50 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:11 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 51:02
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Total: 51:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 10.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 14 Kanade Sugiura
JPN
+66 s
+55 s
G4 / G4
correct 		17:59
18:08
 51:14
Show details
Prediction details: Kanade Sugiura

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +66 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 11.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 4.6 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:14
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 51:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 49.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 6 Ayame Hayashi
JPN
+46 s
+30 s
G3 / G2
 18:11
18:22
 51:23
Show details
Prediction details: Ayame Hayashi

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 16.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 (3:40 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:23
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:23 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:11 (3:38 / km)
Total: 51:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 29.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 18 Charlotte Hall
HKG
+63 s
+47 s
G4 / G3
 18:23
19:18
 51:38
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Hall

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 16.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:18 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:55 / −0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 51:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km)
Total: 51:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 46.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 10 Minori Ikeno
JPN
+19 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 19:46
20:13
 51:45
Show details
Prediction details: Minori Ikeno

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 23 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 18.8 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 1 (5 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 63 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:13 (4:03 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 19:46 (3:57 / km)
Total: 51:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 1.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 5 Chisato Nakajima
JPN
+46 s
+28 s
G3 / G2
 18:48
18:15
 52:00
Show details
Prediction details: Chisato Nakajima

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 4–21
Top-10 probability: 45 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 18.1 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.2 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:23 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Total: 52:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 29.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 11 Yoshiko Sato
JPN
+48 s
+31 s
G3 / G2
 18:53
19:33
 52:05
Show details
Prediction details: Yoshiko Sato

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 6–19
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 17.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 1.31 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 52:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:23 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Total: 52:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 31.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 17 Hinaka Masuda
JPN
+58 s
+29 s
G4 / G2
 18:52
20:06
 52:07
Show details
Prediction details: Hinaka Masuda

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 10–17
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 28.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.3 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:06 (4:01 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 52:07
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 10:18 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Total: 52:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 40.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 23 Zoe Metais
HKG
+36 s
+45 s
G2 / G3
 20:10
20:11
 52:09
Show details
Prediction details: Zoe Metais

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–21
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -8.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 4.4 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:01 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 52:09
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:18 (38.4 km/h)
Run: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Total: 52:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 13 Himeka Sato
JPN
+71 s
+31 s
G4 / G2
 18:56
19:36
 52:11
Show details
Prediction details: Himeka Sato

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–20
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 40.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -1.36 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.6 s
Gap behind: 9.1 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 1.05 %, Sicherheit 39 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:36 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:40 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 52:11
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 18:56 (3:47 / km)
Total: 52:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 54.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 16 Long Hoi
MAC
+61 s
+47 s
G4 / G3
 19:15
18:54
 52:30
Show details
Prediction details: Long Hoi

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–21
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 13.9 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:04 (37.4 km/h)
Run: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Total: 52:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 44 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 8 Mako Hiraizumi
JPN
+49 s
+39 s
G3 / G2
 19:58
18:57
 53:10
Show details
Prediction details: Mako Hiraizumi

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 16–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 10.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 1.08 %, Sicherheit 49 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 8.3 s
Result: Group 2 (7 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 49 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 53:10
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:23 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Total: 53:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 32.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 24 Wing To Cho
HKG
+48 s
+39 s
G3 / G3
correct 		20:27
22:33
 53:39
Show details
Prediction details: Wing To Cho

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 16–22
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 9.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (5 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:33 (4:31 / km)
Error: −2:06 / −0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 53:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:23 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 20:27 (4:05 / km)
Total: 53:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 31.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 15 Alina Khakimova
UZB
+80 s
+72 s
G5 / G4
 19:33
18:15
 54:50
Show details
Prediction details: Alina Khakimova

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 18–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +72 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 92 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 84 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 54:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:36 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 19:33 (3:55 / km)
Total: 54:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 63.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 22 Amara Rae
NZL
+101 s
+58 s
G5 / G3
 20:09
19:29
 55:26
Show details
Prediction details: Amara Rae

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 23–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +101 s
Time: 11:01
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 43.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.88 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 55:26
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:01 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:36 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 20:09 (4:02 / km)
Total: 55:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 84.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 9 Fumika Matsumoto
JPN
+82 s
+57 s
G5 / G3
 22:35
18:17
 57:52
Show details
Prediction details: Fumika Matsumoto

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 24–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 25.2 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.17 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 12.8 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:35 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 (3:39 / km)
Error: +4:18 / +0:52 / km
Overall prediction: 57:52
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:36 (36.0 km/h)
Run: 22:35 (4:31 / km)
Total: 57:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 65.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 20 Irina Juldibina
UZB
+13 s
+46 s
G1 / G3
19:20
Show details
Prediction details: Irina Juldibina

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:33
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -33.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 3 (9 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:33 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 21 Nao Hitotsumatsu
JPN
+0 s
+58 s
G0 / G4
18:55
Show details
Prediction details: Nao Hitotsumatsu

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (3 people)
Speed: 35.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:20 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 25 Karen Mizuki
JPN
+95 s
+66 s
G5 / G5
correct
20:29
Show details
Prediction details: Karen Mizuki

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +95 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 29.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.8 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:29 (4:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:36 (36.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
About 78.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +16.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.