Prediction comparison

16-19 Male AG

25.08.2023 Menen BEL

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Menen

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.08.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 23.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error7.3

Mean swim error88.6 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history7

					Details
0 / 1	Lucas De Santos Fraile ESP	+111 s +3 s	Bike DNF	17:31 17:21	Show details Prediction details: Lucas De Santos Fraile Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +111 s Time: 15:46 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +3 s Fehler: 108.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Historical basis: 3:30 / km Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:21 (3:28 / km) Error: +0:10 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 15:46 (1:35 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:31 (3:30 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Gilles Vanhaelen BEL	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF	17:26	Show details Prediction details: Gilles Vanhaelen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Théo Voogd BEL	+0 s +11 s	Bike DNF	17:37	Show details Prediction details: Théo Voogd Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +11 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (3:31 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Joshua Johnson GBR	+0 s +5 s	Bike DNF	18:57	Show details Prediction details: Joshua Johnson Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +5 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Spencer Bateman GBR	+85 s +81 s	Bike DNF	20:22 17:52	Show details Prediction details: Spencer Bateman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +85 s Time: 15:20 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +81 s Fehler: 4.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km) Historical basis: 4:04 / km Best comparable pace: 4:04 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km) Error: +2:30 / +0:30 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: 15:20 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:22 (4:04 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Gauthier Van Durme BEL	+0 s +21 s	Bike DNF	18:57	Show details Prediction details: Gauthier Van Durme Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 (3:47 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Cole Reid GBR	+48 s +35 s	Bike DNF	19:37 19:53	Show details Prediction details: Cole Reid Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +48 s Time: 14:43 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +35 s Fehler: 13.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (3:59 / km) Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 14:43 (1:28 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Maxwell Buchanan GBR	+0 s +124 s	Bike DNF	18:33	Show details Prediction details: Maxwell Buchanan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +124 s Fehler: -124.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 13:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Louis Demars BEL	+0 s +14 s	Bike DNF	20:40	Show details Prediction details: Louis Demars Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +14 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:40 (4:08 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Matthew Lightfoot GBR	+150 s +126 s	Bike DNF	18:23 19:14	Show details Prediction details: Matthew Lightfoot Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +150 s Time: 16:25 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +126 s Fehler: 24.1 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Historical basis: 3:41 / km Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 12 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:14 (3:51 / km) Error: −0:51 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 16:25 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:23 (3:41 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Alejandro De Santos Arribas ESP	+0 s +198 s	Bike DNF	18:29	Show details Prediction details: Alejandro De Santos Arribas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +198 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:29 (3:42 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Justin Bressac FRA	+0 s +188 s	Bike DNF	21:05	Show details Prediction details: Justin Bressac Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +188 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:05 (4:13 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 13:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Liam Tupling GBR	+0 s +258 s	Bike DNF	20:15	Show details Prediction details: Liam Tupling Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: -13 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 13:55 Pace: 1:24 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +258 s Fehler: -258.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (4:03 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 13:55 (1:24 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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