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Prediction comparison

25-29 Male AG

25.08.2023 Menen BEL
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Menen

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.08.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 50.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.0
Mean swim error49.0 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history3
Details
0 / 1 Téo Katgely
FRA
+21 s
+0 s
 Bike DNF 16:19
16:57
Show details
Prediction details: Téo Katgely

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 14:14
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:14 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Arno Lambrecht
BEL
+1 s
+45 s
 Bike DNF
16:23
Show details
Prediction details: Arno Lambrecht

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 13:54
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: -44.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:23 (3:17 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:54 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Oliver Thorogood
GBR
+97 s
+32 s
 Bike DNF 15:54
16:56
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Thorogood

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +97 s
Time: 15:30
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 64.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: −1:02 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 15:30 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 15:54 (3:11 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Ruben Vandamme
BEL
+96 s
+39 s
 Bike DNF
16:56
Show details
Prediction details: Ruben Vandamme

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +96 s
Time: 15:29
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 57.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:29 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Maxime Tasset
FRA
+19 s
+5 s
 Bike DNF 16:49
18:00
Show details
Prediction details: Maxime Tasset

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 14:12
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +5 s
Fehler: 13.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Error: −1:11 / −0:14 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:12 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 16:49 (3:22 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Benjamin Sommerville
GBR
+81 s
+54 s
 Bike DNF 18:15
18:13
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamin Sommerville

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 15:14
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 26.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:14 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Julien Vanbellaiengh
BEL
+68 s
+31 s
 Bike DNF 20:51
18:44
Show details
Prediction details: Julien Vanbellaiengh

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 15:01
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 37.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.48 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 1 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Error: +2:07 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 15:01 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 20:51 (4:10 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Darren Van Maanen
NED
+17 s
+34 s
 Bike DNF
19:30
Show details
Prediction details: Darren Van Maanen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 14:10
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -17.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 14:10 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Pierre Terlinden-Ruhl
BEL
+0 s
+135 s
 Bike DNF
18:42
Show details
Prediction details: Pierre Terlinden-Ruhl

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +135 s
Fehler: -135.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 13:53 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Lewis Tuck
GBR
+150 s
+121 s
 Bike DNF 18:15
18:45
Show details
Prediction details: Lewis Tuck

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +150 s
Time: 16:23
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +121 s
Fehler: 28.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:45 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 16:23 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:15 (3:39 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Jamie Pullinger
GBR
+288 s
+193 s
 Bike DNF 17:05
17:39
Show details
Prediction details: Jamie Pullinger

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +288 s
Time: 18:41
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +193 s
Fehler: 94.6 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Error: −0:34 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 18:41 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 17:05 (3:25 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Robert Eveson
GBR
+0 s
+248 s
 Bike DNF
18:33
Show details
Prediction details: Robert Eveson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +248 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:53 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Krzysztof Dubiński
POL
+0 s
+266 s
 Bike DNF
18:43
Show details
Prediction details: Krzysztof Dubiński

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +266 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:53 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Dylan Mitchard
GBR
+0 s
+348 s
 Bike DNF
17:52
Show details
Prediction details: Dylan Mitchard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:53
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +348 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 13:53 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.