Prediction comparison

30-34 Female AG

25.08.2023 Menen BEL

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Menen

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.08.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 46.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error5.6

Mean swim error88.1 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history5

					Details
0 / 1	Sarah Osborne GBR	+100 s +42 s	Bike DNF	17:48 20:37	Show details Prediction details: Sarah Osborne Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +100 s Time: 17:53 Pace: 1:47 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 57.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Historical basis: 3:34 / km Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:37 (4:07 / km) Error: −2:49 / −0:34 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 17:53 (1:47 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Laura Wilby GBR	+0 s +21 s	Bike DNF	20:43	Show details Prediction details: Laura Wilby Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:13 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +21 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 20:43 (4:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:13 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Stephanie Millin GBR	+137 s +0 s	Bike DNF	16:36 21:12	Show details Prediction details: Stephanie Millin Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +137 s Time: 18:30 Pace: 1:51 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 136.7 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km) Historical basis: 3:19 / km Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:12 (4:14 / km) Error: −4:36 / −0:55 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 18:30 (1:51 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:36 (3:19 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Tatjana Kortmann GER	+55 s +20 s	Bike DNF	21:38	Show details Prediction details: Tatjana Kortmann Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 17:08 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +20 s Fehler: 35.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:38 (4:20 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:08 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Nicky Savill GBR	+159 s +144 s	Bike DNF	18:47 19:37	Show details Prediction details: Nicky Savill Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +159 s Time: 18:52 Pace: 1:53 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +144 s Fehler: 15.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:45 / km Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 18:52 (1:53 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Naomi Reynolds GBR	+54 s +9 s	Bike DNF	23:18	Show details Prediction details: Naomi Reynolds Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +54 s Time: 17:07 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +9 s Fehler: 45.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:18 (4:40 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:07 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Becky Owen GBR	+224 s +136 s	Bike DNF	22:21 21:50	Show details Prediction details: Becky Owen Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +224 s Time: 19:57 Pace: 2:00 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +136 s Fehler: 88.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:21 (4:28 / km) Historical basis: 4:32 / km Best comparable pace: 4:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.55 %, Sicherheit 1 % Ergebnis Lauf: 21:50 (4:22 / km) Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:57 (2:00 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:21 (4:28 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Natasha Perks GBR	+170 s +183 s	Bike DNF	20:55 20:44	Show details Prediction details: Natasha Perks Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +170 s Time: 19:03 Pace: 1:54 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +183 s Fehler: -13.3 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km) Historical basis: 4:11 / km Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 24 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:44 (4:09 / km) Error: +0:11 / +0:02 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 19:03 (1:54 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 20:55 (4:11 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Kate Webb GBR	+0 s +52 s	Bike DNF	23:23	Show details Prediction details: Kate Webb Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:13 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +52 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:23 (4:41 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:13 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Tasha Chandler GBR	+0 s +185 s	Bike DNF	22:23	Show details Prediction details: Tasha Chandler Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:13 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +185 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 22:23 (4:29 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:13 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Sophie Hunt GBR	+55 s +369 s	Bike DNF	22:09 20:22	Show details Prediction details: Sophie Hunt Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +55 s Time: 17:08 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +369 s Fehler: -314.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 22:09 (4:26 / km) Historical basis: 4:26 / km Best comparable pace: 4:26 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 23 % Ergebnis Lauf: 20:22 (4:04 / km) Error: +1:47 / +0:21 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 17:08 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 22:09 (4:26 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12	Emma Colwill GBR	+0 s +313 s	Bike DNF	21:59	Show details Prediction details: Emma Colwill Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 12 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:13 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +313 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 21:59 (4:24 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:13 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13	Sophie Cheesman GBR	+0 s +329 s	Bike DNF	23:41	Show details Prediction details: Sophie Cheesman Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 13 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:13 Pace: 1:37 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +329 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 23:41 (4:44 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:13 (1:37 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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