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Predicition
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Prediction comparison

30-34 Male AG

25.08.2023 Menen BEL
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Menen

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.08.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 46.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.8
Mean swim error45.7 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history2
Details
0 / 1 Axel De Poorter
FRA
+42 s
+18 s
 Bike DNF 16:47
16:56
Show details
Prediction details: Axel De Poorter

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 15:53
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 23.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:56 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:53 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 16:47 (3:21 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Robin Sottiau
BEL
+0 s
+0 s
 Bike DNF
18:12
Show details
Prediction details: Robin Sottiau

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:11
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:12 (3:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:11 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Alejandro Romero Perez de Tudela
ESP
+58 s
+16 s
 Bike DNF 18:43
18:21
Show details
Prediction details: Alejandro Romero Perez de Tudela

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 16:09
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 42.0 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:21 (3:40 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 16:09 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:43 (3:45 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 João Manuel Rodrigues
POR
+99 s
+63 s
 Bike DNF
18:35
Show details
Prediction details: João Manuel Rodrigues

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +99 s
Time: 16:50
Pace: 1:41 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: 36.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 16:50 (1:41 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Glenn Mitchell
GBR
+118 s
+108 s
 Bike DNF 17:00
17:52
Show details
Prediction details: Glenn Mitchell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +118 s
Time: 17:09
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +108 s
Fehler: 9.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:09 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 17:00 (3:24 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Markus Orgill
GBR
+82 s
+73 s
 Bike DNF
18:46
Show details
Prediction details: Markus Orgill

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 16:33
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +73 s
Fehler: 9.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 16:33 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Paqui Kévin
FRA
+0 s
+14 s
 Bike DNF
19:59
Show details
Prediction details: Paqui Kévin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:11
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:59 (4:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:11 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Andy Shepherd
GBR
+0 s
+131 s
 Bike DNF
19:37
Show details
Prediction details: Andy Shepherd

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:11
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +131 s
Fehler: -131.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:11 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Daniel Regan
GBR
+207 s
+185 s
 Bike DNF 19:20
19:28
Show details
Prediction details: Daniel Regan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +207 s
Time: 18:38
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +185 s
Fehler: 21.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 18:38 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Nick Flanagan
IRL
+238 s
+185 s
 Bike DNF 21:14
20:08
Show details
Prediction details: Nick Flanagan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +238 s
Time: 19:09
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +185 s
Fehler: 52.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 21:14 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:08 (4:02 / km)
Error: +1:06 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 19:09 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 21:14 (4:15 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Clinton Lowe
GBR
+157 s
+160 s
 Bike DNF
20:18
Show details
Prediction details: Clinton Lowe

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +157 s
Time: 17:48
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +160 s
Fehler: -3.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:18 (4:04 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:48 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Michiel Vanreyten
BEL
+0 s
+216 s
 Bike DNF
21:54
Show details
Prediction details: Michiel Vanreyten

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:11
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +216 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:54 (4:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:11 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Rene Schrottner
AUT
+311 s
+415 s
 Bike DNF
19:51
Show details
Prediction details: Rene Schrottner

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +311 s
Time: 20:22
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +415 s
Fehler: -104.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:51 (3:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:22 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Andreas Adamides
CYP
+323 s
+409 s
 Bike DNF 19:23
20:11
Show details
Prediction details: Andreas Adamides

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +323 s
Time: 20:34
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +409 s
Fehler: -86.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:11 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:48 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 20:34 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Shane Skillin
GBR
+324 s
+248 s
 Bike DNF 24:02
23:53
Show details
Prediction details: Shane Skillin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +324 s
Time: 20:35
Pace: 2:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +248 s
Fehler: 75.6 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 24:02 (4:48 / km)
Historical basis: 4:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 35 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:53 (4:47 / km)
Error: +0:09 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 20:35 (2:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 24:02 (4:48 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.