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Predicition
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Prediction comparison

35-39 Male AG

25.08.2023 Menen BEL
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Menen

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.08.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 37.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.7
Mean swim error39.8 s
Correct bike groups0/0
No history3
Details
0 / 1 Sören Sanders
BEL
+0 s
+20 s
 Bike DNF
18:30
Show details
Prediction details: Sören Sanders

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:22
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:22 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 David Wilby
GBR
+107 s
+81 s
 Bike DNF
17:25
Show details
Prediction details: David Wilby

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +107 s
Time: 17:09
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: 26.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:09 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Calum Clark
GBR
+113 s
+84 s
 Bike DNF
17:35
Show details
Prediction details: Calum Clark

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +113 s
Time: 17:15
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: 29.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:35 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:15 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Shaun Challis
GBR
+10 s
+0 s
 Bike DNF 19:01
19:40
Show details
Prediction details: Shaun Challis

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 15:32
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:40 (3:56 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:32 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 19:01 (3:48 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Jonathan Webb
GBR
+70 s
+82 s
 Bike DNF 17:16
18:32
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Webb

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 16:32
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: -12.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: −1:16 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:32 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 17:16 (3:27 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Oliver Anthony
GBR
+0 s
+153 s
 Bike DNF
17:56
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Anthony

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:22
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +153 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:56 (3:35 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:22 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Robert George Wakefield
GBR
+55 s
+116 s
 Bike DNF 17:52
18:52
Show details
Prediction details: Robert George Wakefield

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 16:17
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +116 s
Fehler: -61.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:00 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 16:17 (1:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 17:52 (3:34 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Richard Waldron
GBR
+267 s
+354 s
 Bike DNF
16:39
Show details
Prediction details: Richard Waldron

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +267 s
Time: 19:49
Pace: 1:59 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +354 s
Fehler: -87.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 19:49 (1:59 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Andrew Lovelock
GBR
+223 s
+229 s
 Bike DNF 19:32
19:29
Show details
Prediction details: Andrew Lovelock

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +223 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +229 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:05 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Craig Armour
GBR
+185 s
+226 s
 Bike DNF
19:30
Show details
Prediction details: Craig Armour

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +185 s
Time: 18:27
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +226 s
Fehler: -41.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:30 (3:54 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 18:27 (1:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Adam Marsland
GBR
+211 s
+191 s
 Bike DNF 19:37
20:05
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Marsland

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +211 s
Time: 18:53
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +191 s
Fehler: 20.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:05 (4:01 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 18:53 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Karl Wakeman
GBR
+74 s
+158 s
 Bike DNF
21:11
Show details
Prediction details: Karl Wakeman

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 16:36
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +158 s
Fehler: -84.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:11 (4:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 16:36 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Pierpaolo Sidoti
ITA
+168 s
+195 s
 Bike DNF
20:47
Show details
Prediction details: Pierpaolo Sidoti

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +168 s
Time: 18:10
Pace: 1:49 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +195 s
Fehler: -27.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:47 (4:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:10 (1:49 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Matthew Garside
GBR
+217 s
+290 s
 Bike DNF 23:26
19:34
Show details
Prediction details: Matthew Garside

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +217 s
Time: 18:59
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +290 s
Fehler: -73.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 23:26 (4:41 / km)
Historical basis: 4:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Error: +3:52 / +0:46 / km
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 18:59 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 23:26 (4:41 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Michael Robinson
GBR
+215 s
+257 s
 Bike DNF
20:34
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Robinson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +215 s
Time: 18:57
Pace: 1:54 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +257 s
Fehler: -42.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:34 (4:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 18:57 (1:54 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Piers Cardon
GBR
+0 s
+24 s
 Bike DNF
24:27
Show details
Prediction details: Piers Cardon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:22
Pace: 1:32 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:27 (4:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:22 (1:32 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.