Prediction comparison

U23 Men

25.08.2023 Menen BEL

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Europe Triathlon Aquathlon Championships Menen

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 25.08.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 25/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 62.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.2

Mean swim error20.1 s

Correct bike groups0/0

No history2

					Details
0 / 1	Márton Kropkó HUN	+0 s +0 s	Bike DNF	16:14 15:50	Show details Prediction details: Márton Kropkó Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.71 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -1.12 %, Sicherheit 36 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:50 (3:10 / km) Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:14 (3:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Hugo Winock FRA	+6 s +8 s	Bike DNF	15:45	Show details Prediction details: Hugo Winock Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +6 s Time: 12:06 Pace: 1:13 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: -2.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 15:45 (3:09 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:06 (1:13 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Alexander Bozhilov BUL	+44 s +27 s	Bike DNF	15:30 15:49	Show details Prediction details: Alexander Bozhilov Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +44 s Time: 12:44 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +27 s Fehler: 17.1 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 37 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km) Historical basis: 3:08 / km Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km Trend: −0:03 / km Comparable races: 4 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 40 % Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km) Error: −0:19 / −0:04 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:44 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 15:30 (3:06 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Ul Denša SLO	+84 s +30 s	Bike DNF	16:08 16:34	Show details Prediction details: Ul Denša Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +84 s Time: 13:24 Pace: 1:20 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +30 s Fehler: 53.5 s H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.81 %, Sicherheit 38 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km) Historical basis: 3:17 / km Best comparable pace: 3:11 / km Trend: −0:04 / km Comparable races: 5 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 39 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:34 (3:19 / km) Error: −0:26 / −0:05 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 13:24 (1:20 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:08 (3:14 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Thomas Cardona FRA	+0 s +39 s	Bike DNF	16:39	Show details Prediction details: Thomas Cardona Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +39 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:20 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Dupuis Rémi FRA	+0 s +8 s	Bike DNF	17:50	Show details Prediction details: Dupuis Rémi Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 12:00 Pace: 1:12 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:34 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 12:00 (1:12 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Sem Lazaroms NED	+57 s +42 s	Bike DNF	17:38 18:28	Show details Prediction details: Sem Lazaroms Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +57 s Time: 12:57 Pace: 1:18 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +42 s Fehler: 15.3 s H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.56 %, Sicherheit 32 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 3 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 35 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:28 (3:42 / km) Error: −0:50 / −0:10 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:57 (1:18 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Ostap Heviak UKR	+35 s +68 s	Bike DNF	18:47 19:15	Show details Prediction details: Ostap Heviak Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +35 s Time: 12:35 Pace: 1:16 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +68 s Fehler: -32.8 s H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.56 %, Sicherheit 5 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Bike split not completed Running and total Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Historical basis: 3:47 / km Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 5 % Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (3:51 / km) Error: −0:28 / −0:06 / km Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 12:35 (1:16 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 18:47 (3:45 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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Running and total

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Running and total