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Prediction comparison

30-34 Male AG Sprint

04.06.2023 Madrid ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Championships Madrid

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.06.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 5/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 9.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 9.1 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error12.0
Mean bike-speed error38.93 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history9
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
0 / 1 András Czigány
HUN
+0 s
G0 / G1
 14:02
Show details
Prediction details: András Czigány

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 43.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -43.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:02 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:33 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 14:02 (3:20 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Jakub Brzóska
POL
+58 s
G0 / G1
 17:01
Show details
Prediction details: Jakub Brzóska

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time:
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (2 people)
Speed: 43.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -43.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:01 (4:02 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 14:37 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 17:01 (4:02 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3 Joris Aerden
BEL
+102 s
G0 / G2
 17:21
Show details
Prediction details: Joris Aerden

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +102 s
Time:
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -42.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:21 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:52 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 17:21 (4:07 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Andy Shepherd
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Andy Shepherd

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Nick Ansell
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Nick Ansell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:14 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Ritchie Durrant
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Ritchie Durrant

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:57 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Chris Day
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Day

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:40 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Marian Kraemer
GER
+102 s
G0 / G3
 18:00
Show details
Prediction details: Marian Kraemer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +102 s
Time:
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.05 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -40.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (4:16 / km)
Historical basis: 4:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:00 (4:16 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Benjamin Rushton
GBR
+176 s
G0 / G3
 20:39
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamin Rushton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +176 s
Time:
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 42.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -41.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:39 (4:54 / km)
Historical basis: 4:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:07 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 20:39 (4:54 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Adam Clark
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G5
Show details
Prediction details: Adam Clark

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:57 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Ryan Hart
GBR
+145 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Hart

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +145 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 41.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -41.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:31 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Kane Pierce
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Kane Pierce

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:09 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Simon Cherain
BEL
+0 s
G0 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Cherain

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 42.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -42.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Miguel Sancho Martin
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Miguel Sancho Martin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:00 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Glenn Mitchell
GBR
+135 s
G0 / G10
 14:19
Show details
Prediction details: Glenn Mitchell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +135 s
Time:
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 36.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -36.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 14:19 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:58 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 14:19 (3:24 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Ashley Jeggo
GBR
+224 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Ashley Jeggo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +224 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -39.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:39 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 17 Thomas Lammens
BEL
+249 s
G0 / G7
 18:09
Show details
Prediction details: Thomas Lammens

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +249 s
Time:
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -39.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:09 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:57 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 18:09 (4:19 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 18 Chris Fenn
GBR
+0 s
G0 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Fenn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 19 Juan Antonio Arcones Higueras
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Juan Antonio Arcones Higueras

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (2 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -38.54 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:17 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 20 Patrick Zimmer
GER
+249 s
G0 / G11
Show details
Prediction details: Patrick Zimmer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +249 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -34.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 21 Sergio Sanz Montero
ESP
+0 s
G0 / G12
Show details
Prediction details: Sergio Sanz Montero

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 35.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:00 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 22 Akın Korkmaz
TUR
+491 s
G0 / G13
Show details
Prediction details: Akın Korkmaz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +491 s
Time:
Pace:

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 22.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -22.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:13 ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: –
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.