Prediction comparison

PTVI Men

03.06.2023 Madrid ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Europe Triathlon Championships Madrid

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 03.06.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 0/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 63.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error6.0

Mean bike-speed error40.97 km/h

Correct bike groups0/0

No history0

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Details
0 / 1	Antoine Perel B1 FRA	+139 s	G0 / G3	17:38	Show details Prediction details: Antoine Perel B1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +139 s Time: Pace: 1:38 / 100 m H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 42.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -42.88 km/h Running and total Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km) Historical basis: 3:32 / km Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:51 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:38 (3:32 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2	Dave Ellis B3 GBR	+0 s	G0 / G1	16:15	Show details Prediction details: Dave Ellis B3 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 2 Deviation: -2 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:20 / 100 m H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 43.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -43.21 km/h Running and total Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Historical basis: 3:15 / km Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:00 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 16:15 (3:15 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 3	Thibaut Rigaudeau B3 FRA	+40 s	G0 / G1	17:22	Show details Prediction details: Thibaut Rigaudeau B3 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 3 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: Pace: 1:25 / 100 m H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 43.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -43.93 km/h Running and total Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:04 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:22 (3:28 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4	Héctor Catalá Laparra B2 ESP	+43 s	G0 / G2	17:35	Show details Prediction details: Héctor Catalá Laparra B2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +43 s Time: Pace: 1:25 / 100 m H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 43.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -43.57 km/h Running and total Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Historical basis: 3:31 / km Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 17:02 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:35 (3:31 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Lazar Filipovic B1 SRB	+1 s	G0 / G4		Show details Prediction details: Lazar Filipovic B1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +1 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 41.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -41.11 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 16:49 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Donnacha Mc Carthy B1 IRL	+168 s	G0 / G6	19:17	Show details Prediction details: Donnacha Mc Carthy B1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +168 s Time: Pace: 1:42 / 100 m H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -40.55 km/h Running and total Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Historical basis: 3:51 / km Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:17 (3:51 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7	Łukasz Wietecki B3 POL	+74 s	G0 / G5		Show details Prediction details: Łukasz Wietecki B3 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 7 Deviation: -7 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +74 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 40.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -40.47 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8	Jose Luis García Serrano B1 ESP	+86 s	G0 / G8		Show details Prediction details: Jose Luis García Serrano B1 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +86 s Time: Pace: Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 39.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -39.63 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9	Oscar Kelly B3 GBR	+41 s	G0 / G7	17:18	Show details Prediction details: Oscar Kelly B3 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 9 Deviation: -9 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +41 s Time: Pace: 1:25 / 100 m H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 38.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -38.21 km/h Running and total Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km) Historical basis: 3:28 / km Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 16:59 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 17:18 (3:28 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10	Rafael Cabello Sanchez B2 ESP	+0 s	G0 / G9	19:37	Show details Prediction details: Rafael Cabello Sanchez B2 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: Pace: 1:52 / 100 m Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 38.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -38.75 km/h Running and total Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Ergebnis Lauf: 18:22 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:37 (3:55 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11	Gerasimos Lignos B3 GRE	+40 s	G0 / G10	19:34	Show details Prediction details: Gerasimos Lignos B3 Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: – Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 11 Deviation: -11 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +40 s Time: Pace: 1:25 / 100 m H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 16 % Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 10 (1 people) Speed: 38.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -38.32 km/h Running and total Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km) Historical basis: 3:55 / km Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 29 % Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: – To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km) Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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