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25-29 Male AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 27/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 14.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 28.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.8
Mean swim error170.6 s
Mean bike-speed error18.43 km/h
Correct bike groups2/5
No history2
Within the 80% range14.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Petr Cmunt
CZE
+296 s
+317 s
G2 / G2
correct 		40:53
20:24
 1:16:05
Show details
Prediction details: Petr Cmunt

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +296 s
Time: 22:33
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +317 s
Fehler: -21.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 266.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 20.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:53 (6:49 / km)
Historical basis: 6:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:24 (3:24 / km)
Error: +20:29 / +3:25 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:05
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:33 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 40:53 (6:49 / km)
Total: 1:16:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 22:27
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
About 5.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +290.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 6 Andrea Bruno
ITA
+0 s
+244 s
G1 / G5
 51:25
27:00
 1:26:24
Show details
Prediction details: Andrea Bruno

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +244 s
Fehler: -244.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 30.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 16.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:25 (8:34 / km)
Historical basis: 8:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.70 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:00 (4:30 / km)
Error: +24:25 / +4:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:24
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:37 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:29 (35.0 km/h)
Run: 51:25 (8:34 / km)
Total: 1:26:24
0 / 1 Diego Ras
ITA
+0 s
+104 s
G0 / G2
20:23
Show details
Prediction details: Diego Ras

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +104 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 18.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:23 (3:24 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 17:37 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 2 Afonso Garcia
POR
+30 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct
21:47
Show details
Prediction details: Afonso Garcia

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 18:07
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 30.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 30.0 s
Gap behind: 266.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 18.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:47 (3:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:07 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:29 (35.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 4 Hannes Spahn
GER
+0 s
+109 s
G1 / G3
21:06
Show details
Prediction details: Hannes Spahn

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +109 s
Fehler: -109.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 99 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 18.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:06 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:37 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:29 (35.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5 Matteo Quaquarelli
ITA
+0 s
+244 s
G0 / G4
23:39
Show details
Prediction details: Matteo Quaquarelli

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +244 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 17.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:39 (3:57 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 17:37 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Philipp Blohm
GER
+0 s
+449 s
G1 / G6
21:45
Show details
Prediction details: Philipp Blohm

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:37
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +449 s
Fehler: -449.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 15.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:45 (3:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 17:37 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:29 (35.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable