Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

35-39 Male AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 30.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.1
Mean swim error124.1 s
Mean bike-speed error22.60 km/h
Correct bike groups0/8
No history2
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Details
1 / 10 Albert Sarda Gimeno
ESP
+258 s
+217 s
G4 / G9
 34:27
26:39
 1:09:01
Show details
Prediction details: Albert Sarda Gimeno

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +258 s
Time: 21:37
Pace: 2:05 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +217 s
Fehler: 41.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 52.0 s
Gap behind: 63.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 12.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 28.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:27 (5:45 / km)
Historical basis: 5:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:39 (4:27 / km)
Error: +7:48 / +1:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:37 (2:05 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 34:27 (5:45 / km)
Total: 1:09:01
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:23
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
About 254.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Nicolas Raybaud
FRA
+0 s
+71 s
G1 / G3
 41:44
20:26
 1:11:48
Show details
Prediction details: Nicolas Raybaud

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:19
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: -71.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 160.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 17.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 23.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:44 (6:57 / km)
Historical basis: 6:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:26 (3:24 / km)
Error: +21:18 / +3:33 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:48
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:19 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:04 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 41:44 (6:57 / km)
Total: 1:11:48
3 / 2 Gaetano Olla
ITA
+0 s
+56 s
G1 / G2
 41:52
21:42
 1:11:56
Show details
Prediction details: Gaetano Olla

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:19
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +56 s
Fehler: -56.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 18.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:52 (6:59 / km)
Historical basis: 7:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.34 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:42 (3:37 / km)
Error: +20:10 / +3:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:11:56
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:19 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:04 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 41:52 (6:59 / km)
Total: 1:11:56
4 / 9 Perica Kišićek
CRO
+754 s
+286 s
G6 / G8
 47:15
25:39
 1:30:05
Show details
Prediction details: Perica Kišićek

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +754 s
Time: 29:53
Pace: 2:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +286 s
Fehler: 468.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 346.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 16.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 24.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:15 (7:52 / km)
Historical basis: 7:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:39 (4:17 / km)
Error: +21:36 / +3:36 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:05
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 29:53 (2:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 47:15 (7:52 / km)
Total: 1:30:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:23
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
About 750.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Fabio Galassi
ITA
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G1
20:35
Show details
Prediction details: Fabio Galassi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:19
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 18.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:35 (3:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 17:19 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 4 Leonardo Ferrari
ITA
+206 s
+166 s
G3 / G4
22:29
Show details
Prediction details: Leonardo Ferrari

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +206 s
Time: 20:45
Pace: 2:00 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +166 s
Fehler: 40.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 46.0 s
Gap behind: 52.0 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 17.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 23.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:29 (3:45 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:45 (2:00 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:23
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
About 202.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 Davide Zecchi
ITA
+0 s
+108 s
G0 / G4
23:53
Show details
Prediction details: Davide Zecchi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:19
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +108 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 17.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:53 (3:59 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 17:19 (1:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Claudio Galliani
ITA
+160 s
+76 s
G2 / G5
25:31
Show details
Prediction details: Claudio Galliani

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +160 s
Time: 19:59
Pace: 1:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: 84.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 160.0 s
Gap behind: 46.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 16.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 24.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:31 (4:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 19:59 (1:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:23
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
About 156.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Rocco Righetti
ITA
+321 s
+121 s
G5 / G6
25:47
Show details
Prediction details: Rocco Righetti

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +321 s
Time: 22:40
Pace: 2:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +121 s
Fehler: 200.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 63.0 s
Gap behind: 87.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 16.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:47 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:40 (2:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:25 (34.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:23
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
About 317.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Euan Adams
GBR
+408 s
+375 s
G5 / G7
26:02
Show details
Prediction details: Euan Adams

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +408 s
Time: 24:07
Pace: 2:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +375 s
Fehler: 33.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 87.0 s
Gap behind: 346.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 16.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:02 (4:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 24:07 (2:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:25 (34.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 17:23
Pace: 1:40 / 100 m
About 404.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.