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Prediction comparison

40-44 Male AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 31/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 22.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 22.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.0
Mean swim error70.5 s
Mean bike-speed error23.29 km/h
Correct bike groups2/5
No history4
Within the 80% range11.1 %
Details
1 / 1 Carlo Gattavecchia
ITA
+0 s
+96 s
G1 / G1
correct 		42:02
21:32
 1:12:18
Show details
Prediction details: Carlo Gattavecchia

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: -96.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 49.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 18.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:02 (7:00 / km)
Historical basis: 7:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:32 (3:35 / km)
Error: +20:30 / +3:25 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:18
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 15:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 42:02 (7:00 / km)
Total: 1:12:18
2 / 3 Frank Reimann
GER
+134 s
+95 s
G3 / G3
correct 		42:43
22:00
 1:15:13
Show details
Prediction details: Frank Reimann

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +134 s
Time: 17:44
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +95 s
Fehler: 39.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 85.0 s
Gap behind: 32.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 17.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:43 (7:07 / km)
Historical basis: 7:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:00 (3:40 / km)
Error: +20:43 / +3:27 / km
Overall prediction: 1:15:13
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 17:44 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 42:43 (7:07 / km)
Total: 1:15:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:34
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 130.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 6 Stuart Nash
GBR
+167 s
+279 s
G4 / G5
 43:55
23:10
 1:16:57
Show details
Prediction details: Stuart Nash

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +167 s
Time: 18:17
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +279 s
Fehler: -112.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 32.7 s
Gap behind: 15.3 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 17.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 23.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:55 (7:19 / km)
Historical basis: 7:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.44 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:10 (3:52 / km)
Error: +20:45 / +3:28 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:17 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 43:55 (7:19 / km)
Total: 1:16:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:34
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 162.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Alessio Cappa
ITA
+182 s
+126 s
G5 / G2
21:56
Show details
Prediction details: Alessio Cappa

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +182 s
Time: 18:32
Pace: 1:47 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +126 s
Fehler: 56.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 15.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 17.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:56 (3:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 18:32 (1:47 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:34
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 178.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Michael Stroi
AUT
+0 s
+272 s
G0 / G4
22:01
Show details
Prediction details: Michael Stroi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +272 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 17.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:01 (3:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Guillaume Roissard
FRA
+0 s
+288 s
G0 / G6
22:26
Show details
Prediction details: Guillaume Roissard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +288 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 16.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:26 (3:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Mattia Lorenzo Borra
ITA
+0 s
+138 s
G0 / G7
26:37
Show details
Prediction details: Mattia Lorenzo Borra

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +138 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 16.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:37 (4:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Daniele Baggio
ITA
+0 s
+291 s
G0 / G8
26:56
Show details
Prediction details: Daniele Baggio

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 15:30
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +291 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 15.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:56 (4:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 15:30 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Stefano Scarinci
ITA
+49 s
+0 s
G2 / G9
28:15
Show details
Prediction details: Stefano Scarinci

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 16:19
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 49.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 49.0 s
Gap behind: 85.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 14.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 25.90 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:15 (4:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 16:19 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 15:34
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 45.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.