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50-54 Female AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.8
Mean swim error215.0 s
Mean bike-speed error20.99 km/h
Correct bike groups1/5
No history1
Within the 80% range16.7 %
Details
1 / 3 Emmanuelle Massonnat
FRA
+171 s
+65 s
G1 / G3
 34:29
28:41
 1:13:22
Show details
Prediction details: Emmanuelle Massonnat

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +171 s
Time: 23:08
Pace: 2:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: 106.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 171.0 s
Gap behind: 173.0 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 12.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 21.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:29 (5:45 / km)
Historical basis: 5:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:41 (4:47 / km)
Error: +5:48 / +0:58 / km
Overall prediction: 1:13:22
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:08 (2:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (34.0 km/h)
Run: 34:29 (5:45 / km)
Total: 1:13:22
2 / 2 Patrizia Dorsi
ITA
+0 s
+281 s
G1 / G2
 51:50
26:31
 1:30:43
Show details
Prediction details: Patrizia Dorsi

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 20:17
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +281 s
Fehler: -281.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 13.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 51:50 (8:38 / km)
Historical basis: 8:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:31 (4:25 / km)
Error: +25:19 / +4:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:30:43
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 20:17 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (34.0 km/h)
Run: 51:50 (8:38 / km)
Total: 1:30:43
0 / 1 Tiziana Squizzato
ITA
+0 s
+86 s
G1 / G1
correct
27:06
Show details
Prediction details: Tiziana Squizzato

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 20:17
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: -86.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 171.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 13.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:06 (4:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 20:17 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (34.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 4 Marina Biemmi
ITA
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G3
30:57
Show details
Prediction details: Marina Biemmi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 20:17
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 12.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:57 (5:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 20:17 (1:57 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Mel Wardle
GBR
+344 s
+136 s
G1 / G4
31:22
Show details
Prediction details: Mel Wardle

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +344 s
Time: 26:01
Pace: 2:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +136 s
Fehler: 208.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 86 %
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 173.0 s
Gap behind: 134.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 11.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:22 (5:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 26:01 (2:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:09 (34.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 6 Fiona Day
GBR
+478 s
+84 s
G2 / G5
30:39
Show details
Prediction details: Fiona Day

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +478 s
Time: 28:15
Pace: 2:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +84 s
Fehler: 394.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 134.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 11.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:39 (5:07 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 28:15 (2:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 39:32 (31.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 20:21
Pace: 1:57 / 100 m
About 474.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.