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50-54 Male AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 25/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 10.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 70.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.3
Mean swim error167.8 s
Mean bike-speed error21.67 km/h
Correct bike groups1/10
No history0
Within the 80% range20.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 3 Uli Lüttel
GER
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G5
 23:33
22:23
 53:29
Show details
Prediction details: Uli Lüttel

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:49
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 14.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 26.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:33 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:23 (3:44 / km)
Error: +1:10 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 53:29
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 13:49 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:56 (40.9 km/h)
Run: 23:33 (3:56 / km)
Total: 53:29
2 / 2 Georg Harbauer
GER
+34 s
+70 s
G2 / G2
correct 		31:48
25:15
 1:12:50
Show details
Prediction details: Georg Harbauer

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 14:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: -36.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.0 s
Gap behind: 36.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 15.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: 31:48 (5:18 / km)
Historical basis: 5:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.26 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:15 (4:13 / km)
Error: +6:33 / +1:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:12:50
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:30 (34.2 km/h)
Run: 31:48 (5:18 / km)
Total: 1:12:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:53
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 30.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 7 Frank Linde
GER
+0 s
+382 s
G1 / G6
 49:26
27:22
 1:19:22
Show details
Prediction details: Frank Linde

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:49
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +382 s
Fehler: -382.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 89 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 15.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 25.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 49:26 (8:14 / km)
Historical basis: 8:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:22 (4:34 / km)
Error: +22:04 / +3:41 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:22
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 13:49 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:56 (40.9 km/h)
Run: 49:26 (8:14 / km)
Total: 1:19:22
4 / 4 Marco Gallesio
ITA
+87 s
+239 s
G2 / G3
 38:25
27:15
 1:19:27
Show details
Prediction details: Marco Gallesio

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 15:16
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +239 s
Fehler: -152.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.6 s
Gap behind: 177.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 15.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.41 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:25 (6:24 / km)
Historical basis: 6:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.26 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:15 (4:33 / km)
Error: +11:10 / +1:52 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:27
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 15:16 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:30 (34.2 km/h)
Run: 38:25 (6:24 / km)
Total: 1:19:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:53
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 82.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 8 Christophe Bourjon
FRA
+264 s
+393 s
G2 / G8
 43:51
27:00
 1:24:53
Show details
Prediction details: Christophe Bourjon

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +264 s
Time: 18:13
Pace: 1:45 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +393 s
Fehler: -129.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 177.1 s
Gap behind: 52.3 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 14.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:51 (7:19 / km)
Historical basis: 7:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.26 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:00 (4:30 / km)
Error: +16:51 / +2:49 / km
Overall prediction: 1:24:53
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 18:13 (1:45 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:30 (34.2 km/h)
Run: 43:51 (7:19 / km)
Total: 1:24:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:53
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 259.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 1 Michele Bellemo
ITA
+70 s
+141 s
G2 / G1
 44:44
23:03
 1:25:46
Show details
Prediction details: Michele Bellemo

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +70 s
Time: 14:59
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +141 s
Fehler: -71.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 36.0 s
Gap behind: 16.6 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 16.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:44 (7:27 / km)
Historical basis: 7:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:03 (3:51 / km)
Error: +21:41 / +3:37 / km
Overall prediction: 1:25:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 14:59 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:30 (34.2 km/h)
Run: 44:44 (7:27 / km)
Total: 1:25:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:53
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 66.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 10 Lorenzo Palladino
ITA
+0 s
+757 s
G1 / G10
 56:40
31:05
 1:26:36
Show details
Prediction details: Lorenzo Palladino

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 9–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 13:49
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +757 s
Fehler: -757.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 84 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 34.0 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 13.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 27.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 56:40 (9:27 / km)
Historical basis: 9:16 / km
Best comparable pace: 9:16 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 1.93 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:05 (5:11 / km)
Error: +25:35 / +4:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:26:36
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 13:49 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:56 (40.9 km/h)
Run: 56:40 (9:27 / km)
Total: 1:26:36
8 / 6 Simon Clarke
GBR
+572 s
+634 s
G3 / G7
 44:13
23:25
 1:27:14
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Clarke

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 9–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +572 s
Time: 23:21
Pace: 2:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +634 s
Fehler: -62.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 240.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 15.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 21.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 44:13 (7:22 / km)
Historical basis: 7:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.85 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:25 (3:54 / km)
Error: +20:48 / +3:28 / km
Overall prediction: 1:27:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:21 (2:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:29 (36.6 km/h)
Run: 44:13 (7:22 / km)
Total: 1:27:14
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:53
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 568.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 5 Alessandro Sellone
ITA
+316 s
+351 s
G2 / G4
26:51
Show details
Prediction details: Alessandro Sellone

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +316 s
Time: 19:05
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +351 s
Fehler: -35.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 52.3 s
Gap behind: 16.0 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 16.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:51 (4:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 19:05 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:30 (34.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:53
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 312.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 9 Olaf Christians
GBR
+332 s
+385 s
G2 / G9
29:35
Show details
Prediction details: Olaf Christians

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +332 s
Time: 19:21
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +385 s
Fehler: -53.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 34.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.0 s
Gap behind: 240.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 12.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 21.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:35 (4:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 19:21 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 35:30 (34.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 13:53
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 328.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.