Prediction comparison

55-59 Male AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA

Race information and calculation basis

2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 26/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 12.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 62.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.0

Mean swim error112.3 s

Mean bike-speed error23.96 km/h

Correct bike groups0/7

No history1

Within the 80% range0.0 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 6	Eddi Turi FRA	+257 s +142 s	G5 / G6	33:21 27:11	1:07:53	Show details Prediction details: Eddi Turi Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +257 s Time: 20:18 Pace: 1:57 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +142 s Fehler: 114.8 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 5 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 56.8 s Gap behind: 79.2 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 14.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 26.33 km/h Running and total Run: 33:21 (5:34 / km) Historical basis: 5:25 / km Best comparable pace: 5:25 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 6 % Ergebnis Lauf: 27:11 (4:32 / km) Error: +6:10 / +1:02 / km Overall prediction: 1:07:53 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 20:18 (1:57 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h) Run: 33:21 (5:34 / km) Total: 1:07:53 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:13 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m About 184.9 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +71.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2	Massimiliano Donati ITA	+169 s +112 s	G3 / G2	44:50 23:47	1:17:55	Show details Prediction details: Massimiliano Donati Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +169 s Time: 18:50 Pace: 1:49 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +112 s Fehler: 57.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 % Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 54.0 s Gap behind: 31.0 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 16.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 23.74 km/h Running and total Run: 44:50 (7:28 / km) Historical basis: 7:40 / km Best comparable pace: 4:50 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 2 H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 13 % Ergebnis Lauf: 23:47 (3:58 / km) Error: +21:03 / +3:30 / km Overall prediction: 1:17:55 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 18:50 (1:49 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h) Run: 44:50 (7:28 / km) Total: 1:17:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:13 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m About 97.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +71.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Alessandro De Cillia ITA	+336 s +89 s	G6 / G3	46:15 24:16	1:22:07	Show details Prediction details: Alessandro De Cillia Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +336 s Time: 21:37 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +89 s Fehler: 247.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 6 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 79.2 s Gap behind: 49.5 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 16.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 24.13 km/h Running and total Run: 46:15 (7:42 / km) Historical basis: 7:40 / km Best comparable pace: 7:40 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 24:16 (4:03 / km) Error: +21:59 / +3:40 / km Overall prediction: 1:22:07 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 21:37 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h) Run: 46:15 (7:42 / km) Total: 1:22:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:13 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m About 264.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +71.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 5	Urban Scheld GER	+68 s +6 s	G1 / G5	52:51 26:44	1:24:15	Show details Prediction details: Urban Scheld Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +68 s Time: 17:09 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +6 s Fehler: 62.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 47.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 14.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 26.38 km/h Running and total Run: 52:51 (8:48 / km) Historical basis: 8:57 / km Best comparable pace: 8:57 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.54 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 26:44 (4:27 / km) Error: +26:07 / +4:21 / km Overall prediction: 1:24:15 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:09 (1:39 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h) Run: 52:51 (8:48 / km) Total: 1:24:15
5 / 8	Steven Covey GBR	+386 s +389 s	G7 / G8	53:59 28:40	1:40:07	Show details Prediction details: Steven Covey Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +386 s Time: 22:27 Pace: 2:10 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +389 s Fehler: -3.5 s Cycling Prediction: Group 7 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 30.8 km/h Gap ahead: 49.5 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 11.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 18.94 km/h Running and total Run: 53:59 (9:00 / km) Historical basis: 8:55 / km Best comparable pace: 8:55 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 8 % Ergebnis Lauf: 28:40 (4:47 / km) Error: +25:19 / +4:13 / km Overall prediction: 1:40:07 Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 22:27 (2:10 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 39:43 (30.8 km/h) Run: 53:59 (9:00 / km) Total: 1:40:07 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:13 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m About 313.6 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +71.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1	Claudio Luccardini ITA	+200 s +13 s	G4 / G1	24:01		Show details Prediction details: Claudio Luccardini Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +200 s Time: 19:21 Pace: 1:52 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +13 s Fehler: 187.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 31.0 s Gap behind: 56.8 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 17.6 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 22.83 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 24:01 (4:00 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 19:21 (1:52 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:13 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m About 128.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +71.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	Walter Roda ITA	+115 s +0 s	G2 / G4	28:46		Show details Prediction details: Walter Roda Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +115 s Time: 17:56 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 115.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 40.5 km/h Gap ahead: 47.0 s Gap behind: 54.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 15.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 25.35 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 28:46 (4:48 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 17:56 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 30:16 (40.5 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 17:13 Pace: 1:39 / 100 m About 43.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +71.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7	Ján Štesko SVK	+0 s +298 s	G0 / G7	26:46		Show details Prediction details: Ján Štesko Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 16:01 Pace: 1:32 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +298 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 14.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: 26:46 (4:28 / km) Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 16:01 (1:32 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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