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60-64 Male AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 25/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 9.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 27.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.5
Mean swim error129.7 s
Mean bike-speed error19.32 km/h
Correct bike groups1/10
No history1
Within the 80% range45.5 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 8 Simon Osborne
GBR
+77 s
+68 s
G1 / G6
 36:38
29:15
 1:02:41
Show details
Prediction details: Simon Osborne

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 18:59
Pace: 1:50 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: 9.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.98 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 68.0 s
Gap behind: 33.0 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 13.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:38 (6:06 / km)
Historical basis: 5:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:15 (4:53 / km)
Error: +7:23 / +1:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 18:59 (1:50 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 36:38 (6:06 / km)
Total: 1:02:41
2 / 1 Janko Železnikar
SLO
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G2
 47:53
24:45
 1:13:56
Show details
Prediction details: Janko Železnikar

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:42
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 15.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:53 (7:59 / km)
Historical basis: 7:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 7:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:45 (4:08 / km)
Error: +23:08 / +3:51 / km
Overall prediction: 1:13:56
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:42 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 47:53 (7:59 / km)
Total: 1:13:56
3 / 2 Joachim Rathbauer
AUT
+145 s
+25 s
G1 / G1
correct 		50:23
26:15
 1:16:26
Show details
Prediction details: Joachim Rathbauer

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +145 s
Time: 20:07
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 119.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.7 s
Gap behind: 141.3 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 15.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 50:23 (8:24 / km)
Historical basis: 8:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 26:15 (4:23 / km)
Error: +24:08 / +4:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:07 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: 50:23 (8:24 / km)
Total: 1:16:26
0 / 3 Paolo Bertini
ITA
+352 s
+170 s
G1 / G4
24:38
Show details
Prediction details: Paolo Bertini

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +352 s
Time: 23:34
Pace: 2:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +170 s
Fehler: 182.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 66.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 15.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:38 (4:06 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 23:34 (2:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 4 Mark Waaijenberg
NED
+110 s
+75 s
G1 / G5
24:03
Show details
Prediction details: Mark Waaijenberg

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +110 s
Time: 19:32
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +75 s
Fehler: 35.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.0 s
Gap behind: 34.7 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 14.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 24:03 (4:01 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:32 (1:53 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5 Ercole Paroli
ITA
+286 s
+202 s
G1 / G3
27:18
Show details
Prediction details: Ercole Paroli

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +286 s
Time: 22:28
Pace: 2:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +202 s
Fehler: 84.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 44 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 141.3 s
Gap behind: 66.0 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 15.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:18 (4:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 22:28 (2:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 6 Jens Kjærgaard
DEN
+9 s
+40 s
G1 / G5
28:21
Show details
Prediction details: Jens Kjærgaard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 17:51
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -31.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 68.0 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 14.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:21 (4:44 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 17:51 (1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7 Giorgio Alberti
ITA
+0 s
+179 s
G1 / G6
25:49
Show details
Prediction details: Giorgio Alberti

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:42
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +179 s
Fehler: -179.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 6 (2 people)
Speed: 14.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 19.42 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:49 (4:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:42 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 9 Paolo Maurizio Carpi
ITA
+0 s
+316 s
G0 / G7
28:07
Show details
Prediction details: Paolo Maurizio Carpi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:42
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +316 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 14.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:07 (4:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 17:42 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Carmelo De Simone
ITA
+0 s
+221 s
G1 / G8
35:00
Show details
Prediction details: Carmelo De Simone

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:42
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +221 s
Fehler: -221.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 98 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 12.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:00 (5:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 17:42 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 11 Gianni Alessio
ITA
+0 s
+436 s
G1 / G9
31:45
Show details
Prediction details: Gianni Alessio

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 17:42
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +436 s
Fehler: -436.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 11.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 22.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:45 (5:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 17:42 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 20:11 (33.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable