Prediction comparison
65-69 Female AG
10.09.2023
Riva del Garda
ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
20/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error2.0
Mean swim error231.0 s
Mean bike-speed error9.59 km/h
Correct bike groups0/0
No history0
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 / 1 |
Luisella Iabichella
ITA
|
+0 s
+82 s
|
G0 / G1
|
33:17
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +82 s
Fehler: -82.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 11.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -11.59 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 33:17 (5:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 2 |
Rossella Carletti
ITA
|
+380 s
+0 s
|
G0 / G2
|
32:43
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +380 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 380.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 8.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -8.42 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 32:43 (5:27 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|
|
| 0 / 3 |
Michela Mazzarelli
ITA
|
+429 s
+198 s
|
G0 / G3
|
41:11
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: –
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +429 s
Time:
Pace:
Ergebnisabstand: +198 s
Fehler: 231.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 8.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -8.75 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:11 (6:52 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
–
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|