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65-69 Male AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 33/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 25.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 62.5 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.1
Mean swim error92.3 s
Mean bike-speed error20.42 km/h
Correct bike groups3/8
No history0
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Tino Bettoni
ITA
+82 s
+23 s
G1 / G1
correct 		36:23
29:08
 55:24
Show details
Prediction details: Tino Bettoni

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +82 s
Time: 19:29
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 59.0 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 114.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 15.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 25.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:23 (6:04 / km)
Historical basis: 5:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:08 (4:51 / km)
Error: +7:15 / +1:12 / km
Overall prediction: 55:24
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:29 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:39 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 36:23 (6:04 / km)
Total: 55:24
2 / 3 Stefano Piolanti
ITA
+396 s
+277 s
G3 / G3
correct 		34:21
27:46
 1:02:39
Show details
Prediction details: Stefano Piolanti

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +396 s
Time: 24:43
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +277 s
Fehler: 119.3 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 89.3 s
Gap behind: 52.7 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 14.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:21 (5:43 / km)
Historical basis: 5:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:46 (4:38 / km)
Error: +6:35 / +1:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:02:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:43 (2:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:58 (34.4 km/h)
Run: 34:21 (5:43 / km)
Total: 1:02:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 310.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1 Gerhard Schlüter
GER
+196 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct 		52:55
25:41
 1:19:34
Show details
Prediction details: Gerhard Schlüter

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +196 s
Time: 21:23
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 196.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 114.0 s
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 14.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 52:55 (8:49 / km)
Historical basis: 8:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 8:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 1.16 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 25:41 (4:17 / km)
Error: +27:14 / +4:32 / km
Overall prediction: 1:19:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:23 (2:03 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 21:32 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 52:55 (8:49 / km)
Total: 1:19:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 110.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 4 Nicholas Farnell
GBR
+240 s
+283 s
G2 / G4
 54:59
29:08
 1:21:38
Show details
Prediction details: Nicholas Farnell

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +240 s
Time: 22:07
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +283 s
Fehler: -43.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 34.5 s
Gap behind: 67.5 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 14.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 17.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:59 (9:10 / km)
Historical basis: 9:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:08 (4:51 / km)
Error: +25:51 / +4:18 / km
Overall prediction: 1:21:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 22:07 (2:08 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 21:32 (31.5 km/h)
Run: 54:59 (9:10 / km)
Total: 1:21:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 153.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 5 Karsten Olsen
DEN
+560 s
+399 s
G3 / G5
 54:19
28:21
 1:22:37
Show details
Prediction details: Karsten Olsen

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +560 s
Time: 27:27
Pace: 2:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +399 s
Fehler: 161.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 111.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 13.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 54:19 (9:03 / km)
Historical basis: 9:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 28:21 (4:44 / km)
Error: +25:58 / +4:20 / km
Overall prediction: 1:22:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 27:27 (2:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:58 (34.4 km/h)
Run: 54:19 (9:03 / km)
Total: 1:22:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 474.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Josef Huber
GER
+307 s
+260 s
G2 / G6
35:00
Show details
Prediction details: Josef Huber

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +307 s
Time: 23:14
Pace: 2:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +260 s
Fehler: 47.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 67.5 s
Gap behind: 89.3 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 13.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 18.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:00 (5:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 23:14 (2:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 21:32 (31.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 221.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 David Thompson
GBR
+449 s
+402 s
G3 / G8
37:01
Show details
Prediction details: David Thompson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +449 s
Time: 25:36
Pace: 2:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +402 s
Fehler: 47.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 52.7 s
Gap behind: 111.4 s
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 11.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 23.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:01 (6:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 25:36 (2:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 18:58 (34.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 363.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Malcolm Harrison
GBR
+205 s
+140 s
G2 / G7
41:46
Show details
Prediction details: Malcolm Harrison

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +205 s
Time: 21:32
Pace: 2:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +140 s
Fehler: 65.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 34.5 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 10.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 20.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:46 (6:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:32 (2:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 21:32 (31.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:53 / 100 m
About 119.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +85.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.