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70-74 Male AG

10.09.2023 Riva del Garda ITA
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cross Championships Riva del Garda-Trentino

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 10.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 33/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 25.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 75.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error100.0 s
Mean bike-speed error25.39 km/h
Correct bike groups1/4
No history0
Within the 80% range25.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Corrado Capelli
ITA
+154 s
+13 s
G2 / G1
 42:50
31:23
 1:03:03
Show details
Prediction details: Corrado Capelli

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +154 s
Time: 23:45
Pace: 2:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: 141.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 154.0 s
Gap behind: 47.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 12.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 27.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 42:50 (7:08 / km)
Historical basis: 6:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 31:23 (5:14 / km)
Error: +11:27 / +1:55 / km
Overall prediction: 1:03:03
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:45 (2:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:39 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 42:50 (7:08 / km)
Total: 1:03:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 21:15
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
About 150.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 2 Michele Vanzi
ITA
+0 s
+0 s
G1 / G3
 58:57
27:35
 1:16:29
Show details
Prediction details: Michele Vanzi

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:11
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 11.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 29.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 58:57 (9:50 / km)
Historical basis: 9:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 9:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 1.94 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 27:35 (4:36 / km)
Error: +31:22 / +5:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:16:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:11 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:32 (40.7 km/h)
Run: 58:57 (9:50 / km)
Total: 1:16:29
3 / 4 Colin Hunt
GBR
+201 s
+311 s
G3 / G3
correct 		56:03
30:44
 1:23:29
Show details
Prediction details: Colin Hunt

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +201 s
Time: 24:32
Pace: 2:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +311 s
Fehler: -110.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 47.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 12.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 16.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 56:03 (9:20 / km)
Historical basis: 9:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:44 (5:07 / km)
Error: +25:19 / +4:13 / km
Overall prediction: 1:23:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 24:32 (2:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 24:05 (29.6 km/h)
Run: 56:03 (9:20 / km)
Total: 1:23:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 21:15
Pace: 2:03 / 100 m
About 197.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Giancarlo Pittoni
ITA
+0 s
+149 s
G1 / G2
30:54
Show details
Prediction details: Giancarlo Pittoni

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 21:11
Pace: 2:02 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +149 s
Fehler: -149.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 154.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 12.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 27.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:54 (5:09 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 21:11 (2:02 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 17:32 (40.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable