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Elite Women

15.10.2023 Alanya TUR
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cup Alanya

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 15.10.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 49/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 58.8 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 88.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.7
Mean swim error16.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.53 km/h
Correct bike groups8/51
No history0
Within the 80% range35.3 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 7 Beatrice Mallozzi
ITA
+46 s
+54 s
G4 / G2
 17:55
17:29
 50:00
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Mallozzi

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–21
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -8.5 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.20 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.83 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:55 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.33 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:29 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:26 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 17:55 (3:28 / km)
Total: 50:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 41.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 5 María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero
ESP
+37 s
+35 s
G3 / G1
 17:59
18:02
 50:03
Show details
Prediction details: María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:02 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:29 / km)
Total: 50:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 32.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 9 Iona Miller
GBR
+37 s
+27 s
G3 / G1
 18:11
18:24
 50:15
Show details
Prediction details: Iona Miller

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–17
Top-10 probability: 70 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:05
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 54 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:11 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:24 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:05 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 18:11 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 32.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 2 Tilly Anema
GBR
+8 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 18:27
17:30
 50:15
Show details
Prediction details: Tilly Anema

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 7.7 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.54 %, Sicherheit 51 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 50 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:27 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:30 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:57 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 50:15
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:27 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 3.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 11 Celia Merle
FRA
+14 s
+23 s
G2 / G1
 18:29
18:27
 50:17
Show details
Prediction details: Celia Merle

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 60 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: -8.6 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.78 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 33 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:27 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 50:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 10.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 4 Sophie Alden
GBR
+9 s
+3 s
G2 / G1
 18:32
18:03
 50:20
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Alden

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–15
Top-10 probability: 63 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:37
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 6.3 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:32 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 31 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:03 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 50:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:37 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:32 (3:35 / km)
Total: 50:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 5.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 1 Julia Bröcker
GER
+34 s
+42 s
G3 / G1
 18:19
17:26
 50:23
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Bröcker

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 5–14
Top-10 probability: 58 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -7.6 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:19 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:26 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 50:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 18:19 (3:32 / km)
Total: 50:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 30.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 22 Robin Dreijling
NED
+18 s
+63 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:44
18:25
 50:32
Show details
Prediction details: Robin Dreijling

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–18
Top-10 probability: 33 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: -45.1 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.59 %, Sicherheit 53 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 4.1 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:44 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:44 (3:37 / km)
Total: 50:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 14 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 3 Rebecca Beti
SUI
+38 s
+38 s
G3 / G1
 18:31
17:43
 50:35
Show details
Prediction details: Rebecca Beti

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–22
Top-10 probability: 29 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: 0.2 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:31 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 50:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 18:31 (3:35 / km)
Total: 50:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 14 Adelaide Anna Badini Confalonieri
ITA
+16 s
+55 s
G2 / G2
correct 		18:50
17:52
 50:38
Show details
Prediction details: Adelaide Anna Badini Confalonieri

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–20
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -39.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.02 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.37 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:50 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:52 (3:27 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 50:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:50 (3:38 / km)
Total: 50:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 26 Józefina Młynarska
POL
+36 s
+59 s
G3 / G2
 18:35
18:37
 50:39
Show details
Prediction details: Józefina Młynarska

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–27
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -22.6 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 66 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:37 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 50:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:35 / km)
Total: 50:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 32.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 36 Finja Schierl
GER
+30 s
+26 s
G3 / G5
 18:36
18:34
 50:40
Show details
Prediction details: Finja Schierl

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 3.5 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 52 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.6 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:36 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.35 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 50:40
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 18:36 (3:36 / km)
Total: 50:40
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 25.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 40 Aniek Mars
NED
+34 s
+64 s
G3 / G7
 18:40
18:54
 50:44
Show details
Prediction details: Aniek Mars

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 8–29
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 40
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -30.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.07 %, Sicherheit 18 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 7 (4 people)
Speed: 37.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:40 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:14 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 18:40 (3:36 / km)
Total: 50:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 29.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 20 Paula Del Pozo Borrachero
ESP
+55 s
+55 s
G4 / G2
 18:40
18:18
 50:45
Show details
Prediction details: Paula Del Pozo Borrachero

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 11–31
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -0.4 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur -0.66 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:40 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 78 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:18 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 18:40 (3:36 / km)
Total: 50:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 50.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 18 Carina Reicht
AUT
+67 s
+76 s
G5 / G4
 17:39
17:18
 50:51
Show details
Prediction details: Carina Reicht

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 5–29
Top-10 probability: 43 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -9.2 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:39 (3:25 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.17 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 17:39 (3:25 / km)
Total: 50:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 62.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 23 Katharina Möller
GER
+32 s
+50 s
G3 / G2
 18:53
18:16
 50:57
Show details
Prediction details: Katharina Möller

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–27
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -17.6 s
H2H: 31 Gegner:innen, 50 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:53 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:16 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 18:53 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 28.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 29 Lea Marchal
FRA
+0 s
+2 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:38
19:38
 50:57
Show details
Prediction details: Lea Marchal

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–28
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: -2.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.60 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:38 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:38 (3:48 / km)
Error: +0:00 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 50:57
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:19 (38.9 km/h)
Run: 19:38 (3:48 / km)
Total: 50:57
18 / 12 Carlotta Bonacina
ITA
+10 s
+34 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:14
17:50
 51:02
Show details
Prediction details: Carlotta Bonacina

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–24
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +34 s
Fehler: -24.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:14 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:50 (3:27 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 51:02
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:14 (3:43 / km)
Total: 51:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 28 Nora Romina Nádas
HUN
+16 s
+20 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:15
18:46
 51:03
Show details
Prediction details: Nora Romina Nádas

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 15–27
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -4.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 35 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:15 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.55 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:38 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 51:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:15 (3:43 / km)
Total: 51:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 11.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 10 Myral Greco
ITA
+10 s
+28 s
G2 / G1
 19:17
18:23
 51:05
Show details
Prediction details: Myral Greco

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 12–25
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: -17.6 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 53 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:17 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:23 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 51:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:17 (3:44 / km)
Total: 51:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 6.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 17 Francesca Crestani
ITA
+57 s
+58 s
G4 / G2
 19:03
18:14
 51:08
Show details
Prediction details: Francesca Crestani

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 19–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -1.5 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:03 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:49 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 51:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 19:03 (3:41 / km)
Total: 51:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 52.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 38 Ellie White
GBR
+12 s
+20 s
G2 / G6
 19:25
18:35
 51:13
Show details
Prediction details: Ellie White

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 17–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 38
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -8.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 10 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 38 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:25 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.67 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:35 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 51:13
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:30 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:25 (3:45 / km)
Total: 51:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 7.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 15 Pia Wolf
GER
+39 s
+26 s
G3 / G1
 19:14
18:36
 51:18
Show details
Prediction details: Pia Wolf

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 12.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:14 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:36 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:18
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 19:14 (3:43 / km)
Total: 51:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 8 Chiara Lobba
ITA
+69 s
+43 s
G5 / G2
 18:14
17:24
 51:26
Show details
Prediction details: Chiara Lobba

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 10–28
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 10:37
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 25.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur 0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 5.1 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:24 (3:22 / km)
Error: +0:50 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 51:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:37 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:31 / km)
Total: 51:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 64.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 6 Appoline Foltz
FRA
+30 s
+25 s
G3 / G1
 19:25
18:10
 51:29
Show details
Prediction details: Appoline Foltz

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 20–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 9:58
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 30 Gegner:innen, 41 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:25 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:10 (3:31 / km)
Error: +1:15 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 51:29
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:58 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 19:25 (3:45 / km)
Total: 51:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 26 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 27 Clara Carlquist
DEN
+38 s
+58 s
G3 / G2
 19:30
18:39
 51:34
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Carlquist

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 23–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -19.7 s
H2H: 29 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:30 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:39 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 51:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 19:30 (3:46 / km)
Total: 51:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 35 Isabel Sterr
GER
+43 s
+61 s
G4 / G4
correct 		19:33
19:11
 51:38
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel Sterr

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 25–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +61 s
Fehler: -17.9 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.09 %, Sicherheit 46 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.01 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:33 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:11 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:22 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 19:33 (3:47 / km)
Total: 51:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 39.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 13 Céline Kaiser
GER
+46 s
+55 s
G4 / G2
 19:39
17:47
 51:44
Show details
Prediction details: Céline Kaiser

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 28–39
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -9.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:39 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -1.89 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:26 / km)
Error: +1:52 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 51:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 19:39 (3:48 / km)
Total: 51:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 42 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 21 Annabel Morton
GBR
+36 s
+32 s
G3 / G3
correct 		19:46
17:43
 51:50
Show details
Prediction details: Annabel Morton

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 24–38
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 21
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 3.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 16 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:46 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 14 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:43 (3:25 / km)
Error: +2:03 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 51:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 19:46 (3:49 / km)
Total: 51:50
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 31.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 50 Noémi Van der Kaaij
SUI
+38 s
+80 s
G3 / G8
 19:49
21:22
 51:53
Show details
Prediction details: Noémi Van der Kaaij

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 27–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 50
Deviation: -20

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +80 s
Fehler: -42.0 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 8 (7 people)
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:49 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:22 (4:08 / km)
Error: −1:33 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 51:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 19:49 (3:50 / km)
Total: 51:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 39 Désirée Gmür
SUI
+56 s
+63 s
G4 / G4
correct 		19:59
20:11
 52:04
Show details
Prediction details: Désirée Gmür

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 34–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 39
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +63 s
Fehler: -7.5 s
H2H: 28 Gegner:innen, 46 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:59 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:11 (3:54 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:04
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 19:59 (3:52 / km)
Total: 52:04
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 51.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
32 / 33 Alzbeta Hruskova
CZE
+56 s
+55 s
G4 / G2
 20:02
20:01
 52:07
Show details
Prediction details: Alzbeta Hruskova

Placement

Prediction: 32
80% range: 25–46
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 0.7 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:02 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.16 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:01 (3:52 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 52:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 20:02 (3:52 / km)
Total: 52:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 51.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
33 / 42 Leana Bissig
SUI
+61 s
+79 s
G5 / G7
 19:00
19:12
 52:12
Show details
Prediction details: Leana Bissig

Placement

Prediction: 33
80% range: 18–38
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 42
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: -18.3 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 53 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 7 (4 people)
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.64 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:00 (3:40 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:33 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:12 (3:43 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 19:00 (3:40 / km)
Total: 52:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 56.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
34 / 25 Maria Alzaga Criado
ESP
+44 s
+43 s
G4 / G1
 20:10
19:10
 52:15
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Alzaga Criado

Placement

Prediction: 34
80% range: 33–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 1.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -1.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:10 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 74 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:10 (3:42 / km)
Error: +1:00 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:15
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 20:10 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 40.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
35 / 32 Borbála Sarcia
HUN
+74 s
+39 s
G5 / G2
 19:20
19:17
 52:32
Show details
Prediction details: Borbála Sarcia

Placement

Prediction: 35
80% range: 29–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:42
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 34.8 s
H2H: 27 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.1 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:20 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:17 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:32
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:42 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 19:20 (3:44 / km)
Total: 52:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 69.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
36 / 44 Irmak Şereflioğlu
TUR
+48 s
+89 s
G4 / G8
 20:30
18:32
 52:35
Show details
Prediction details: Irmak Şereflioğlu

Placement

Prediction: 36
80% range: 36–43
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 44
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +89 s
Fehler: -40.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 8 (7 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:30 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:35 / km)
Error: +1:58 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 52:35
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 20:30 (3:58 / km)
Total: 52:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 44.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
37 / 34 Alice Riebler
ITA
+80 s
+78 s
G5 / G4
 19:25
19:13
 52:37
Show details
Prediction details: Alice Riebler

Placement

Prediction: 37
80% range: 33–41
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +80 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 26 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 12.9 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:25 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:44 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.41 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:13 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:37
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 19:25 (3:45 / km)
Total: 52:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 75.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
38 / 37 Lizzy Edge
GBR
+23 s
+65 s
G3 / G4
 20:42
19:41
 52:46
Show details
Prediction details: Lizzy Edge

Placement

Prediction: 38
80% range: 33–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +65 s
Fehler: -42.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 6.6 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:42 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:41 (3:48 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:46
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 20:42 (4:00 / km)
Total: 52:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 19 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
39 / 45 Pauline De Groof
BEL
+75 s
+96 s
G5 / G8
 19:35
18:42
 52:47
Show details
Prediction details: Pauline De Groof

Placement

Prediction: 39
80% range: 36–42
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 45
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +96 s
Fehler: -20.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 8 (7 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.92 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:35 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 67 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 52:47
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 19:35 (3:47 / km)
Total: 52:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 71.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
40 / 46 Loanne Duvoisin
SUI
+51 s
+134 s
G4 / G8
 21:41
18:54
 53:46
Show details
Prediction details: Loanne Duvoisin

Placement

Prediction: 40
80% range: 43–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 46
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +134 s
Fehler: -82.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 8 (7 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:41 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:11 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:39 / km)
Error: +2:47 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 53:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: 21:41 (4:11 / km)
Total: 53:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 47.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
41 / 49 Iva Pavlovic
SRB
+59 s
+79 s
G5 / G8
 20:46
20:44
 53:58
Show details
Prediction details: Iva Pavlovic

Placement

Prediction: 41
80% range: 40–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 49
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +79 s
Fehler: -19.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 34 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 8 (7 people)
Speed: 35.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:46 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:44 (4:00 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 53:58
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 20:46 (4:01 / km)
Total: 53:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 55.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
42 / 47 Lotte Vandekerckhove
BEL
+95 s
+90 s
G6 / G8
 19:45
19:05
 54:11
Show details
Prediction details: Lotte Vandekerckhove

Placement

Prediction: 42
80% range: 37–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 47
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +95 s
Time: 11:03
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +90 s
Fehler: 5.1 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (7 people)
Speed: 36.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.96 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:45 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.21 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:05 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 54:11
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:03 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:50 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 19:45 (3:49 / km)
Total: 54:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 91.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
43 / 16 Kim Van 't Verlaat
NED
+63 s
+41 s
G5 / G1
 21:05
18:51
 54:17
Show details
Prediction details: Kim Van 't Verlaat

Placement

Prediction: 43
80% range: 41–49
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 10:31
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 22.1 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur 0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:05 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:51 (3:39 / km)
Error: +2:14 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 54:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:31 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 21:05 (4:04 / km)
Total: 54:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 59.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
44 / 48 Lana Gavrilović
SRB
+39 s
+49 s
G3 / G7
 22:13
21:53
 54:17
Show details
Prediction details: Lana Gavrilović

Placement

Prediction: 44
80% range: 44–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 48
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: -10.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 7 (4 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:13 (4:18 / km)
Historical basis: 4:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 79 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:53 (4:14 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 54:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 22:13 (4:18 / km)
Total: 54:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 34.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
45 / 51 Cemre Civelek
TUR
+62 s
+88 s
G5 / G9
 21:22
19:46
 54:34
Show details
Prediction details: Cemre Civelek

Placement

Prediction: 45
80% range: 44–48
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 51
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:30
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: -26.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:22 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:46 (3:49 / km)
Error: +1:36 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 54:34
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:30 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:53 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 21:22 (4:08 / km)
Total: 54:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 58 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
46 / 43 Martha Calton-Seal
GBR
+36 s
+78 s
G3 / G7
 22:39
19:44
 54:43
Show details
Prediction details: Martha Calton-Seal

Placement

Prediction: 46
80% range: 47–50
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 43
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: -42.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 7 (4 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:39 (4:22 / km)
Historical basis: 4:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 10 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:44 (3:49 / km)
Error: +2:55 / +0:34 / km
Overall prediction: 54:43
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 22:39 (4:22 / km)
Total: 54:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 31.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
47 / 30 Özlenen İpek Günad
TUR
+36 s
+60 s
G3 / G2
 23:22
18:54
 55:26
Show details
Prediction details: Özlenen İpek Günad

Placement

Prediction: 47
80% range: 49–51
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: -24.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.79 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:22 (4:31 / km)
Historical basis: 4:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.97 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:54 (3:39 / km)
Error: +4:28 / +0:52 / km
Overall prediction: 55:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 23:22 (4:31 / km)
Total: 55:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 31.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
48 / 41 Amalia Maria Singuran
ROU
+33 s
+30 s
G3 / G2
 23:34
21:28
 55:38
Show details
Prediction details: Amalia Maria Singuran

Placement

Prediction: 48
80% range: 44–51
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 41
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 14 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:34 (4:33 / km)
Historical basis: 4:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -1.99 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:28 (4:09 / km)
Error: +2:06 / +0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 55:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: 23:34 (4:33 / km)
Total: 55:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 28.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 19 Léna Vaillier-Francois
FRA
+22 s
+37 s
G3 / G1
18:58
Show details
Prediction details: Léna Vaillier-Francois

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -19

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 9:50
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -15.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.1 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (14 people)
Speed: 40.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.94 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:58 (3:40 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:50 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:25 (38.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 18.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 24 Franka Rust
GER
+92 s
+78 s
G6 / G4
17:33
Show details
Prediction details: Franka Rust

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -24

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +92 s
Time: 11:00
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +78 s
Fehler: 14.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.9 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 4 (6 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.31 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:33 (3:23 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:00 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:50 (37.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 88.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 31 Sophie Gießmann
GER
+53 s
+55 s
G4 / G2
18:56
Show details
Prediction details: Sophie Gießmann

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:21
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: -2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (11 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (17 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:56 (3:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:21 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:09 (39.1 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:32
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
About 49.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.