Zum Inhalt springen
Performance Workspace
Predicition
Live data
Prediction comparison

Elite Women

08.10.2023 Ceuta ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cup and Mediterranean Championships Ceuta

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 08.10.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 50/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 59.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 83.8 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.0
Mean swim error16.3 s
Mean bike-speed error0.99 km/h
Correct bike groups13/36
No history1
Within the 80% range43.2 %
Details
1 / 2 Cecilia Santamaria Surroca
ESP
+20 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:11
16:54
 50:13
Show details
Prediction details: Cecilia Santamaria Surroca

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 6–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 10:07
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 1.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 47 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 76 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:54 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:17 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:07 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Total: 50:13
2 / 3 Hollie Elliott
IRL
+17 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:25
17:19
 50:27
Show details
Prediction details: Hollie Elliott

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 17.1 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 64 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:19 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:06 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:04 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 17:25 (3:29 / km)
Total: 50:27
3 / 24 Inês Rico
POR
+21 s
+24 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:28
19:23
 50:30
Show details
Prediction details: Inês Rico

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 83 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: -2.7 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 61 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.72 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:23 (3:53 / km)
Error: −1:55 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 50:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 17:28 (3:30 / km)
Total: 50:30
4 / 5 María Casals Mojica
ESP
+28 s
+23 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:44
17:36
 50:46
Show details
Prediction details: María Casals Mojica

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 8–14
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 5.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 51 Duelle, Korrektur 0.77 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 17:44 (3:33 / km)
Total: 50:46
5 / 21 Katrien Maes
BEL
+24 s
+32 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:48
18:49
 50:50
Show details
Prediction details: Katrien Maes

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 59 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 10:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 44 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:33 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Error: −1:01 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 50:50
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Total: 50:50
6 / 14 Katharina Möller
GER
+27 s
+27 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:14
18:14
 51:16
Show details
Prediction details: Katharina Möller

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 11–20
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 0.2 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:00 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 51:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 51:16
7 / 6 Natalia Castro Santos
ESP
+25 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:35
17:39
 51:37
Show details
Prediction details: Natalia Castro Santos

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 11–22
Top-10 probability: 6 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 11.2 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.23 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 1.7 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:29 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 54 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:39 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:56 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 51:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 18:35 (3:43 / km)
Total: 51:37
8 / 16 Pia Wolf
GER
+28 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		18:52
18:34
 51:54
Show details
Prediction details: Pia Wolf

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 14–25
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:47 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:54
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Total: 51:54
9 / 15 Carina Reicht
AUT
+61 s
+57 s
G4 / G2
 16:46
17:01
 52:00
Show details
Prediction details: Carina Reicht

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–20
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:48
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 4.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 90 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Historical basis: 3:20 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.73 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:01 (3:24 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 52:00
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:48 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:53 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 16:46 (3:21 / km)
Total: 52:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 30.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 13 Leann Dietzel
GER
+32 s
+31 s
G2 / G1
 18:03
18:06
 52:18
Show details
Prediction details: Leann Dietzel

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–20
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:06 (3:37 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 52:18
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:03 (3:37 / km)
Total: 52:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 1.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 1 Beatrice Mallozzi
ITA
+37 s
+37 s
G2 / G1
 18:08
16:50
 52:23
Show details
Prediction details: Beatrice Mallozzi

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 11–22
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +37 s
Fehler: -0.2 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 16 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Error: +1:18 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 52:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 52:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 5.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 10 Barbara De Koning
NED
+48 s
+18 s
G3 / G1
 17:41
17:49
 52:27
Show details
Prediction details: Barbara De Koning

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 11 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 30.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 37 Duelle, Korrektur 0.42 %, Sicherheit 59 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 52:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 17:41 (3:32 / km)
Total: 52:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 17 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 20 Felipa Herrmann
GER
+42 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
 18:16
18:53
 52:31
Show details
Prediction details: Felipa Herrmann

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 15–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +42 s
Time: 10:29
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 6.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -2.47 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:31
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:29 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:16 (3:39 / km)
Total: 52:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 11.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 23 Maria Alzaga Criado
ESP
+27 s
+40 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:32
19:16
 52:34
Show details
Prediction details: Maria Alzaga Criado

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 19–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: -13.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.7 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 62 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:16 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 52:34
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 19:32 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:34
15 / 32 Elsa Pena Vicente
ESP
+22 s
+16 s
G1 / G2
 19:58
19:37
 53:00
Show details
Prediction details: Elsa Pena Vicente

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 23–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 6.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.65 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: +0:21 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 53:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 19:58 (4:00 / km)
Total: 53:00
16 / 22 Ana Carballo Gómez
ESP
+64 s
+33 s
G4 / G1
 17:48
18:55
 53:02
Show details
Prediction details: Ana Carballo Gómez

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 13–29
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:51
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 31.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Error: −1:07 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 53:02
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:51 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:53 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 17:48 (3:34 / km)
Total: 53:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 33.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 8 Paula Del Pozo Borrachero
ESP
+32 s
+42 s
G2 / G1
 18:52
17:47
 53:07
Show details
Prediction details: Paula Del Pozo Borrachero

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–23
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -9.8 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 41 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 53:07
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Total: 53:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 1.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 4 María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero
ESP
+51 s
+19 s
G3 / G1
 18:29
17:21
 53:15
Show details
Prediction details: María Teresa Jiménez-Orta Guerrero

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–31
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 32.4 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -1.51 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.60 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:21 (3:28 / km)
Error: +1:08 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 53:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 53:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 20.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 26 Victoria Gillies
AUS
+38 s
+42 s
G2 / G1
 19:02
19:54
 53:17
Show details
Prediction details: Victoria Gillies

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 12–31
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -3.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 7 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.81 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:54 (3:59 / km)
Error: −0:52 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 53:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 19:02 (3:48 / km)
Total: 53:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 7.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 17 Erin McConnell
IRL
+13 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:15
18:33
 53:17
Show details
Prediction details: Erin McConnell

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 24–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 30 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Historical basis: 4:04 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.57 %, Sicherheit 30 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Error: +1:42 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 53:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 20:15 (4:03 / km)
Total: 53:17
21 / 29 Michelle Stratton
USA
+48 s
+39 s
G3 / G2
 18:33
18:46
 53:19
Show details
Prediction details: Michelle Stratton

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 15–29
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 9.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.13 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.69 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:46 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:13 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 53:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 18:33 (3:43 / km)
Total: 53:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 17.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 18 Iratxe Arenal Arribas
ESP
+33 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 19:12
18:34
 53:27
Show details
Prediction details: Iratxe Arenal Arribas

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 16–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +33 s
Time: 10:20
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 20.8 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 91 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 29 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:34 (3:43 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 53:27
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:20 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 19:12 (3:50 / km)
Total: 53:27
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 1.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 9 Leana Bissig
SUI
+56 s
+45 s
G3 / G1
 18:49
17:46
 53:35
Show details
Prediction details: Leana Bissig

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 21–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:43
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 10.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 42 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: +1:03 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 53:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:43 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 53:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 24.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 27 Ines Oliveira
POR
+38 s
+26 s
G2 / G1
 19:28
19:52
 53:43
Show details
Prediction details: Ines Oliveira

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 19–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 12.4 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 26 %
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:52 (3:58 / km)
Error: −0:24 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 53:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:33 (37.2 km/h)
Run: 19:28 (3:54 / km)
Total: 53:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 7.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 25 Marit Van Den Berg
NED
+53 s
+46 s
G3 / G2
 19:07
18:32
 53:53
Show details
Prediction details: Marit Van Den Berg

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 20–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +53 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 88 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 89 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: +0:35 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 53:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 19:07 (3:49 / km)
Total: 53:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 21.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 28 Luna Sraka
SLO
+51 s
+28 s
G3 / G1
 19:44
19:55
 54:30
Show details
Prediction details: Luna Sraka

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 26–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 22.5 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 13 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 4:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 6 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:55 (3:59 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 54:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 19:44 (3:57 / km)
Total: 54:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 19 Borbála Sarcia
HUN
+68 s
+18 s
G4 / G1
 19:31
18:38
 54:45
Show details
Prediction details: Borbála Sarcia

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 27–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 10:55
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 49.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.57 %, Sicherheit 82 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 6.5 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:38 (3:44 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 54:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:55 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:53 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 19:31 (3:54 / km)
Total: 54:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
About 36.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 37 Grete Maria Savitsch
EST
+49 s
+59 s
G3 / G3
correct 		20:23
23:09
 55:09
Show details
Prediction details: Grete Maria Savitsch

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 29–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 37
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -10.4 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.12 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:56 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.69 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 23:09 (4:38 / km)
Error: −2:46 / −0:33 / km
Overall prediction: 55:09
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (36.9 km/h)
Run: 20:23 (4:05 / km)
Total: 55:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 17.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 30 Lucia Acosta Suarez
ESP
+93 s
+43 s
G5 / G2
 18:57
18:53
 55:16
Show details
Prediction details: Lucia Acosta Suarez

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 31–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +93 s
Time: 11:20
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 50.3 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.68 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.9 s
Gap behind: 4.7 s
Result: Group 2 (5 people)
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:48 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 55:16
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:20 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:41 (35.9 km/h)
Run: 18:57 (3:47 / km)
Total: 55:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 62.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 34 Marina Muñoz Hernando
ESP
+65 s
+58 s
G4 / G3
 22:59
19:00
 58:13
Show details
Prediction details: Marina Muñoz Hernando

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 35–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:52
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:59 (4:36 / km)
Historical basis: 4:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:00 (3:48 / km)
Error: +3:59 / +0:48 / km
Overall prediction: 58:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:52 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:53 (36.7 km/h)
Run: 22:59 (4:36 / km)
Total: 58:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 33.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
31 / 36 Irene Moro Betrian
ESP
+9 s
+59 s
G1 / G3
 25:31
19:53
 58:33
Show details
Prediction details: Irene Moro Betrian

Placement

Prediction: 31
80% range: 35–36
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 36
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +59 s
Fehler: -49.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 25:31 (5:06 / km)
Historical basis: 5:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:53 (3:59 / km)
Error: +5:38 / +1:08 / km
Overall prediction: 58:33
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: 25:31 (5:06 / km)
Total: 58:33
0 / 7 Alessia Orla
ITA
+27 s
+17 s
G1 / G1
correct
17:45
Show details
Prediction details: Alessia Orla

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 10.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:45 (3:33 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:34 (38.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 11 Clara Aulinas Prat
ESP
+81 s
+18 s
G4 / G1
18:01
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Aulinas Prat

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +81 s
Time: 11:08
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 63.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.48 %, Sicherheit 64 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.4 s
Gap behind: 11.9 s
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:08 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:53 (36.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 50.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Marie Wattiez
FRA
+0 s
+40 s
G0 / G1
18:07
Show details
Prediction details: Marie Wattiez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 37–37
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:47
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 1 (26 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:07 (3:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:47 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 31 Sara Alemany Seguer
ESP
+52 s
+58 s
G3 / G3
correct
18:32
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Alemany Seguer

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -31

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:39
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -6.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:32 (3:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:39 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:50 (36.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 21 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 33 Pauline De Groof
BEL
+98 s
+60 s
G5 / G3
18:53
Show details
Prediction details: Pauline De Groof

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -33

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 11:25
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 38.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.9 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.7 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 11:25 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:41 (35.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 67 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 35 Isabel María Navarro García
ESP
+74 s
+57 s
G4 / G3
19:38
Show details
Prediction details: Isabel María Navarro García

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -35

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 11:01
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 17.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.5 s
Gap behind: 7.4 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:38 (3:56 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 11:01 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:53 (36.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:18
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
About 43 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +31 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.