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Elite Women

27.05.2023 Olsztyn POL
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Cup Olsztyn

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 41/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 41.2 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 91.2 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error9.2
Mean swim error35.8 s
Mean bike-speed error1.29 km/h
Correct bike groups6/33
No history1
Within the 80% range29.4 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 11 Kristelle Congi
FRA
+31 s
+10 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:26
17:46
 49:12
Show details
Prediction details: Kristelle Congi

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:42
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 21.0 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 20 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.6 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:12
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:42 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:26 (3:29 / km)
Total: 49:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 26.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 6 Sophia Green
GBR
+24 s
+11 s
G2 / G1
 17:47
18:08
 49:33
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Green

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 9:35
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 13.4 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 44 Duelle, Korrektur 1.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 49:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:35 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:47 (3:33 / km)
Total: 49:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 1 Selina Klamt
GER
+25 s
+1 s
G2 / G1
 17:50
17:10
 49:36
Show details
Prediction details: Selina Klamt

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 9:36
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 24.4 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 5.6 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.61 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:10 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:40 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 49:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:36 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:50 (3:34 / km)
Total: 49:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 20.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 14 Celia Merle
FRA
+20 s
+7 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:59
17:51
 49:45
Show details
Prediction details: Celia Merle

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–8
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:31
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.4 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 49:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:31 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 2 Nora Gmür
SUI
+41 s
+15 s
G2 / G1
 18:02
17:32
 49:48
Show details
Prediction details: Nora Gmür

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 6–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +41 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 25.6 s
H2H: 24 Gegner:innen, 39 Duelle, Korrektur 1.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.98 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 52 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:32 (3:30 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 49:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:02 (3:36 / km)
Total: 49:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 35.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 5 Robin Dreijling
NED
+37 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 18:29
18:05
 50:15
Show details
Prediction details: Robin Dreijling

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 9–16
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 27.2 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.94 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.64 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:29 (3:42 / km)
Total: 50:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
7 / 24 Eva Cornelisse
NED
+37 s
+30 s
G2 / G4
 18:37
18:25
 50:23
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Cornelisse

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 9–19
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 1.43 %, Sicherheit 29 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 26 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:12 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 50:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 18:37 (3:43 / km)
Total: 50:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
8 / 29 Marta Lagownik
POL
+65 s
+40 s
G3 / G6
 18:00
17:46
 50:46
Show details
Prediction details: Marta Lagownik

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–25
Top-10 probability: 34 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +40 s
Fehler: 25.4 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 1.13 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 35.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:00 (3:36 / km)
Total: 50:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 60.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 7 María Casals Mojica
ESP
+52 s
+20 s
G3 / G2
 18:08
17:11
 50:54
Show details
Prediction details: María Casals Mojica

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–15
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 32.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 1.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 6.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 53 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:11 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:57 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 50:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:03 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:08 (3:38 / km)
Total: 50:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 47.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 31 Lydia Russell
USA
+68 s
+32 s
G3 / G5
 18:13
18:48
 50:59
Show details
Prediction details: Lydia Russell

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–24
Top-10 probability: 19 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 36.0 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.67 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.64 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:48 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:35 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 50:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Total: 50:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 63.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 17 Katharina Möller
GER
+72 s
+23 s
G3 / G2
 18:14
18:13
 51:00
Show details
Prediction details: Katharina Möller

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 12–22
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +72 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 49.0 s
H2H: 25 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.56 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 43 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 51:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:14 (3:39 / km)
Total: 51:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 67.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 13 Hanne De Vet
BEL
+37 s
+16 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:20
17:51
 51:06
Show details
Prediction details: Hanne De Vet

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 12–25
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +37 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 20.7 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 8 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.25 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.38 %, Sicherheit 8 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:29 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 51:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:20 (3:52 / km)
Total: 51:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 31.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 26 Zuzanna Sudak
POL
+59 s
+24 s
G3 / G4
 18:25
19:03
 51:11
Show details
Prediction details: Zuzanna Sudak

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–20
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 34.7 s
H2H: 22 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.7 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.33 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:03 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:38 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 51:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:25 (3:41 / km)
Total: 51:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 53.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 10 Julia Bröcker
GER
+74 s
+23 s
G4 / G2
 18:01
17:42
 51:16
Show details
Prediction details: Julia Bröcker

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 9–22
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +74 s
Time: 10:25
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +23 s
Fehler: 50.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 17 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:42 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:16
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:25 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:50 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 18:01 (3:36 / km)
Total: 51:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 68.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 8 Jule Behrens
GER
+64 s
+27 s
G3 / G2
 18:44
17:20
 51:30
Show details
Prediction details: Jule Behrens

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–25
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 10:15
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +27 s
Fehler: 37.3 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur -0.55 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.26 %, Sicherheit 44 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:20 (3:28 / km)
Error: +1:24 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 51:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:15 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:44 (3:45 / km)
Total: 51:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 59.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 9 Anja Weber
SUI
+11 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 19:45
18:30
 51:31
Show details
Prediction details: Anja Weber

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 12–22
Top-10 probability: 4 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 1.7 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 9.4 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.85 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:30 (3:42 / km)
Error: +1:15 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 51:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 19:45 (3:57 / km)
Total: 51:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 5.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 20 Appoline Foltz
FRA
+51 s
+0 s
G3 / G2
 18:55
19:06
 51:41
Show details
Prediction details: Appoline Foltz

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +51 s
Time: 10:02
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 50.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.0 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:42 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.05 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:41
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:02 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 18:55 (3:47 / km)
Total: 51:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 45.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 15 Józefina Młynarska
POL
+75 s
+18 s
G4 / G2
 18:28
17:55
 51:43
Show details
Prediction details: Józefina Młynarska

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 14–26
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 10:26
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 56.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.42 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 6 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:55 (3:35 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:26 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:50 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 18:28 (3:42 / km)
Total: 51:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 69.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 30 Katie Rodda
GBR
+35 s
+6 s
G2 / G3
 20:07
20:19
 51:53
Show details
Prediction details: Katie Rodda

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 20–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 9:46
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 28.9 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.19 %, Sicherheit 20 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:19 (4:04 / km)
Error: −0:12 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 51:53
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:46 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Total: 51:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 30 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 3 Tjasa Vrtacic
SLO
+65 s
+3 s
G3 / G1
 19:09
17:36
 51:55
Show details
Prediction details: Tjasa Vrtacic

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 61.6 s
H2H: 20 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:36 (3:31 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 51:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Total: 51:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 59.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 12 Hollie Elliott
IRL
+38 s
+3 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:24
17:46
 52:10
Show details
Prediction details: Hollie Elliott

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 23–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 35.3 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:24 (4:05 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.74 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:46 (3:33 / km)
Error: +2:38 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 52:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: 20:24 (4:05 / km)
Total: 52:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 33.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 25 Vanessa Possberg
SUI
+68 s
+25 s
G3 / G3
correct 		19:26
19:06
 52:12
Show details
Prediction details: Vanessa Possberg

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 22–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 10:19
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 42.6 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:20 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:19 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:26 (3:53 / km)
Total: 52:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 62.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 33 Matylda Wojakiewicz
POL
+61 s
+25 s
G3 / G7
 19:27
20:10
 52:13
Show details
Prediction details: Matylda Wojakiewicz

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 19–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +61 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 35.5 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.50 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 34.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:10 (4:02 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 52:13
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:27 (3:53 / km)
Total: 52:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 55.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
24 / 18 Magdalena Sudak
POL
+71 s
+10 s
G3 / G2
 19:29
18:52
 52:15
Show details
Prediction details: Magdalena Sudak

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 19–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +71 s
Time: 10:22
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 61.0 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:52 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:37 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:22 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:54 / km)
Total: 52:15
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 66.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 28 Kim Van 't Verlaat
NED
+65 s
+30 s
G3 / G4
 19:34
19:15
 52:20
Show details
Prediction details: Kim Van 't Verlaat

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 19–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +65 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 34.8 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.19 %, Sicherheit 24 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:15 (3:51 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 52:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Total: 52:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 59.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
26 / 4 Lotte Miller
NOR
+85 s
+16 s
G4 / G1
 19:06
17:57
 52:21
Show details
Prediction details: Lotte Miller

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 10–32
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 10:36
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 69.0 s
H2H: 23 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.69 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.3 s
Gap behind: 12.6 s
Result: Group 1 (7 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.29 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 1.62 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:57 (3:35 / km)
Error: +1:09 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 52:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:36 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:50 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:06 (3:49 / km)
Total: 52:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 80.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 19 Clara Carlquist
DEN
+77 s
+17 s
G4 / G2
 19:34
18:49
 52:49
Show details
Prediction details: Clara Carlquist

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 23–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +77 s
Time: 10:28
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 59.7 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 8.3 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Error: +0:45 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 52:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:28 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:50 (37.5 km/h)
Run: 19:34 (3:55 / km)
Total: 52:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 71.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 34 Delia-Oana Dudau
ROU
+59 s
+39 s
G3 / G7
 20:33
21:47
 53:19
Show details
Prediction details: Delia-Oana Dudau

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 28–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 10:10
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 20.3 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 2.53 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.53 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:47 (4:21 / km)
Error: −1:14 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 53:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:10 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:34 (38.0 km/h)
Run: 20:33 (4:07 / km)
Total: 53:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 54.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 23 Leann Dietzel
GER
+98 s
+32 s
G5 / G4
 19:24
17:59
 54:07
Show details
Prediction details: Leann Dietzel

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 28–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +98 s
Time: 10:49
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 65.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.6 s
Gap behind: 29.3 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:59 (3:36 / km)
Error: +1:25 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 54:07
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:49 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 33:06 (36.3 km/h)
Run: 19:24 (3:53 / km)
Total: 54:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 92.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
30 / 32 Darya Mazur
KAZ
+127 s
+41 s
G6 / G7
 19:35
19:37
 56:29
Show details
Prediction details: Darya Mazur

Placement

Prediction: 30
80% range: 32–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +127 s
Time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +41 s
Fehler: 85.9 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.29 %, Sicherheit 12 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 34.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 11, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 29.3 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (3 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.18 %, Sicherheit 12 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:37 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:02 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 56:29
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:18 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 34:47 (34.5 km/h)
Run: 19:35 (3:55 / km)
Total: 56:29
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 122 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 16 Jasmine Greaves
AUS
+10 s
+3 s
G2 / G2
correct
18:05
Show details
Prediction details: Jasmine Greaves

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 7.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 9.0 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.66 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:05 (3:37 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:21 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 21 Tilly Anema
GBR
+1 s
+11 s
G1 / G3
17:49
Show details
Prediction details: Tilly Anema

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 9:12
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: -10.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 95 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 9.0 s
Result: Group 3 (3 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:12 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 22 Lea Marchal
FRA
+0 s
+1 s
G0 / G2
19:10
Show details
Prediction details: Lea Marchal

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 34–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:11
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (14 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:10 (3:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:11 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 27 Hagar Cohen Kalif
ISR
+44 s
+4 s
G2 / G4
19:09
Show details
Prediction details: Hagar Cohen Kalif

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -27

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 39.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 7.0 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.50 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:09 (3:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 31:03 (38.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
About 38 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.