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Elite Women

01.07.2023 Holten NED
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Premium Cup Holten

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 01.07.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 51/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 62.9 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 82.9 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error7.8
Mean swim error11.0 s
Mean bike-speed error0.84 km/h
Correct bike groups13/32
No history2
Within the 80% range45.7 %
Details
1 / 1 Jolien Vermeylen
BEL
+11 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:08
18:39
 50:24
Show details
Prediction details: Jolien Vermeylen

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–8
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:49
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 11.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 96 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:08 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:20 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 33 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:39 (3:23 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 50:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:49 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 19:08 (3:29 / km)
Total: 50:24
2 / 19 Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza
CHI
+14 s
+21 s
G1 / G3
 19:18
21:05
 50:34
Show details
Prediction details: Dominga Elena Jacome Espinoza

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–19
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 9:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -7.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 46 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:18 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:25 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 2.24 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:05 (3:50 / km)
Error: −1:47 / −0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 50:34
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 19:18 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:34
3 / 3 Olivia Thornbury
NZL
+22 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:22
19:19
 50:38
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Thornbury

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 86 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 10:00
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 7.5 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.7 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.18 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:22 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:19 (3:31 / km)
Error: +0:03 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 50:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:00 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 19:22 (3:31 / km)
Total: 50:38
4 / 2 Rachel Klamer
NED
+31 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 19:07
18:42
 50:43
Show details
Prediction details: Rachel Klamer

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 79 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 19.3 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:07 (3:28 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:42 (3:24 / km)
Error: +0:25 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 50:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 19:07 (3:28 / km)
Total: 50:43
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 6.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9 Chloe Bateup
AUS
+16 s
+16 s
G1 / G3
 19:29
19:47
 50:45
Show details
Prediction details: Chloe Bateup

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +16 s
Time: 9:54
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:29 (3:33 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:47 (3:36 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 50:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:54 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 19:29 (3:33 / km)
Total: 50:45
6 / 4 Ellie Hoitink
AUS
+28 s
+44 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:27
19:04
 51:03
Show details
Prediction details: Ellie Hoitink

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–17
Top-10 probability: 66 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 10:06
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: -16.3 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.43 %, Sicherheit 69 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 13 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 2.2 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:27 (3:32 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.15 %, Sicherheit 60 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:04 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:23 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 51:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:06 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 19:27 (3:32 / km)
Total: 51:03
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 2.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 6 Luisa Iogna-Prat
ITA
+36 s
+32 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:37
19:32
 51:13
Show details
Prediction details: Luisa Iogna-Prat

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–15
Top-10 probability: 53 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 10:14
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: 3.5 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 33 Duelle, Korrektur -0.70 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:37 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:34 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 51 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:32 (3:33 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 51:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:14 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 19:37 (3:34 / km)
Total: 51:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 10.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 8 Sophia Green
GBR
+13 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		19:59
20:15
 51:15
Show details
Prediction details: Sophia Green

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 7–11
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:51
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.34 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:59 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.19 %, Sicherheit 56 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:15 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:16 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:15
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:51 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 19:59 (3:38 / km)
Total: 51:15
9 / 5 Anouk Sterkers
FRA
+56 s
+43 s
G2 / G2
correct 		19:55
19:27
 51:31
Show details
Prediction details: Anouk Sterkers

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 11–20
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 13.1 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -1.64 %, Sicherheit 55 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:55 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:39 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur -0.89 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:27 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:28 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:31
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 19:55 (3:37 / km)
Total: 51:31
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 31 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 14 Hannah Knighton
NZL
+7 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:18
20:55
 51:34
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Knighton

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 8–13
Top-10 probability: 50 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 9:45
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -6.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.03 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:18 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:55 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:37 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 51:34
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:45 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 20:18 (3:41 / km)
Total: 51:34
11 / 27 Leana Bissig
SUI
+55 s
+58 s
G2 / G6
 20:18
21:16
 51:54
Show details
Prediction details: Leana Bissig

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 14–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 27
Deviation: -16

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 10:33
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: -3.5 s
H2H: 19 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.9 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 37.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:18 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:16 (3:52 / km)
Error: −0:58 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 51:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:33 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 20:18 (3:42 / km)
Total: 51:54
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 29.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 16 Eva Cornelisse
NED
+31 s
+47 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:19
20:44
 51:55
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Cornelisse

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–18
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 10:09
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: -16.3 s
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.46 %, Sicherheit 31 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.24 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:19 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 6 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:44 (3:46 / km)
Error: −0:25 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 51:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:09 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 20:19 (3:42 / km)
Total: 51:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 5.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 13 Silke De Wolde
NED
+49 s
+45 s
G2 / G2
correct 		20:19
20:22
 51:55
Show details
Prediction details: Silke De Wolde

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +49 s
Time: 10:27
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +45 s
Fehler: 3.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 5.9 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:19 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 10 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:22 (3:42 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 51:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:27 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 20:19 (3:42 / km)
Total: 51:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 23.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 25 Severine Bouchez
BEL
+62 s
+54 s
G2 / G6
 20:20
20:38
 51:56
Show details
Prediction details: Severine Bouchez

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–26
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:20 (3:42 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.31 %, Sicherheit 92 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:38 (3:45 / km)
Error: −0:18 / −0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 51:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 20:20 (3:42 / km)
Total: 51:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 36.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 17 Maaike Vooren
NED
+38 s
+10 s
G2 / G1
 20:35
21:20
 52:11
Show details
Prediction details: Maaike Vooren

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 13–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 28.3 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.18 %, Sicherheit 24 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 1 (6 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:35 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 20 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:20 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:45 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 52:11
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 20:35 (3:45 / km)
Total: 52:11
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 13.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 21 Désirée Gmür
SUI
+45 s
+43 s
G2 / G3
 20:40
21:23
 52:16
Show details
Prediction details: Désirée Gmür

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +43 s
Fehler: 1.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 22 Duelle, Korrektur 0.32 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:40 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:23 (3:53 / km)
Error: −0:43 / −0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 52:16
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 20:40 (3:45 / km)
Total: 52:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 10 Luna De Bruin
NED
+19 s
+35 s
G1 / G2
 21:05
20:17
 52:21
Show details
Prediction details: Luna De Bruin

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 14–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 9:57
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +35 s
Fehler: -16.2 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur 0.03 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 2.7 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:05 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:17 (3:41 / km)
Error: +0:48 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 52:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:57 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 21:05 (3:50 / km)
Total: 52:21
18 / 22 Appoline Foltz
FRA
+18 s
+42 s
G1 / G4
 21:06
20:36
 52:22
Show details
Prediction details: Appoline Foltz

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 13–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:56
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -24.4 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 76 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.2 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:06 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 21 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:36 (3:45 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 52:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:56 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 21:06 (3:50 / km)
Total: 52:22
19 / 20 Annie Fuller
USA
+46 s
+44 s
G2 / G3
 21:00
20:59
 52:36
Show details
Prediction details: Annie Fuller

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 14–28
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 10:24
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 1.7 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:00 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:59 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 52:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:24 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 21:00 (3:49 / km)
Total: 52:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 20.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 7 Carlotta Missaglia
ITA
+34 s
+42 s
G2 / G2
correct 		21:08
19:47
 52:44
Show details
Prediction details: Carlotta Missaglia

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 17–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 10:12
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: -8.1 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.71 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:08 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:25 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -1.85 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 19:47 (3:36 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 52:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:12 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 21:08 (3:50 / km)
Total: 52:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 8.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 33 Daniela Zapata Zapata
COL
+62 s
+66 s
G2 / G9
 21:16
21:55
 52:52
Show details
Prediction details: Daniela Zapata Zapata

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 24–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 33
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +62 s
Time: 10:40
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -4.2 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 37 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 34.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:16 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 37 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:55 (3:59 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 52:52
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 10:40 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 21:16 (3:52 / km)
Total: 52:52
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 36.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 12 Nele Dequae
BEL
+60 s
+46 s
G2 / G2
correct 		21:21
20:20
 52:57
Show details
Prediction details: Nele Dequae

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 22–28
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +60 s
Time: 10:38
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: 14.0 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -1.66 %, Sicherheit 60 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.0 s
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:21 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.86 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:20 (3:42 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 52:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:38 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 21:21 (3:53 / km)
Total: 52:57
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 34.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 15 Hasse Fleerackers
BEL
+23 s
+39 s
G1 / G2
 21:41
20:36
 52:57
Show details
Prediction details: Hasse Fleerackers

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 20–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 10:01
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: -16.3 s
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 7 Duelle, Korrektur 1.57 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 30 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.2 s
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:41 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 4 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.52 %, Sicherheit 13 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:36 (3:45 / km)
Error: +1:05 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 52:57
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:01 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 21:41 (3:57 / km)
Total: 52:57
24 / 18 Bridget Theunissen
RSA
+30 s
+31 s
G2 / G2
correct 		21:45
21:07
 53:21
Show details
Prediction details: Bridget Theunissen

Placement

Prediction: 24
80% range: 17–30
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 18
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: -1.1 s
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 47 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.2 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.21 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:45 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 10 Gegner:innen, 15 Duelle, Korrektur -0.25 %, Sicherheit 38 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:07 (3:50 / km)
Error: +0:38 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 53:21
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 21:45 (3:57 / km)
Total: 53:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 4.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
25 / 24 Jamie Harker
CAN
+5 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 22:48
22:35
 54:04
Show details
Prediction details: Jamie Harker

Placement

Prediction: 25
80% range: 20–29
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +5 s
Time: 9:43
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: -13.3 s
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 58 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 90 %
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.44 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:48 (4:09 / km)
Historical basis: 4:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.18 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:35 (4:06 / km)
Error: +0:13 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 54:04
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:43 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:53 (39.6 km/h)
Run: 22:48 (4:09 / km)
Total: 54:04
26 / 32 Kim Van 't Verlaat
NED
+56 s
+64 s
G2 / G7
 23:02
22:29
 54:38
Show details
Prediction details: Kim Van 't Verlaat

Placement

Prediction: 26
80% range: 28–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 32
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 10:34
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +64 s
Fehler: -7.9 s
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 17 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 87 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 3 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:02 (4:11 / km)
Historical basis: 4:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 13 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 81 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:29 (4:05 / km)
Error: +0:33 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 54:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:34 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 23:02 (4:11 / km)
Total: 54:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 31 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
27 / 28 Romy Spoelder
NED
+67 s
+76 s
G3 / G6
 21:24
21:32
 54:49
Show details
Prediction details: Romy Spoelder

Placement

Prediction: 27
80% range: 24–30
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 28
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +67 s
Time: 10:45
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +76 s
Fehler: -8.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 21:24 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:32 (3:55 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 54:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:45 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:16 (37.6 km/h)
Run: 21:24 (3:53 / km)
Total: 54:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 42.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
28 / 31 Rhune Vansteenkiste
BEL
+45 s
+44 s
G2 / G5
 23:45
22:32
 55:21
Show details
Prediction details: Rhune Vansteenkiste

Placement

Prediction: 28
80% range: 30–31
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 31
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 10:23
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +44 s
Fehler: 0.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.81 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: 23:45 (4:19 / km)
Historical basis: 4:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:32 (4:06 / km)
Error: +1:13 / +0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 55:21
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:23 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 23:45 (4:19 / km)
Total: 55:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 19.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
29 / 26 Lotte Vandekerckhove
BEL
+100 s
+55 s
G4 / G6
 22:35
21:02
 56:53
Show details
Prediction details: Lotte Vandekerckhove

Placement

Prediction: 29
80% range: 31–32
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 26
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +100 s
Time: 11:18
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +55 s
Fehler: 44.5 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur 0.45 %, Sicherheit 28 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 30.5 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (4 people)
Speed: 37.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: 22:35 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:10 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 5 Duelle, Korrektur -1.29 %, Sicherheit 28 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:02 (3:49 / km)
Error: +1:33 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 56:53
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:18 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:39 (37.1 km/h)
Run: 22:35 (4:06 / km)
Total: 56:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:04
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 74.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Charlotte Faivre
FRA
+57 s
+48 s
G2 / G2
correct
20:16
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Faivre

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 10:35
Pace: 1:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 9.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 11 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 3.0 s
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 20:16 (3:41 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 10:35 (1:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 31.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 23 Babette Rosman
NED
+0 s
+47 s
G0 / G2
21:50
Show details
Prediction details: Babette Rosman

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 33–33
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +47 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (13 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:50 (3:58 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 29 Josephine Seerig
GER
+38 s
+46 s
G2 / G4
22:55
Show details
Prediction details: Josephine Seerig

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 29
Deviation: -29

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 10:16
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +46 s
Fehler: -8.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (19 people)
Gruppe 1: 4 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 4 (2 people)
Speed: 38.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:55 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 10:16 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 30:34 (39.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 12.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 30 Lara Atkinson
GBR
+0 s
+39 s
G0 / G8
21:23
Show details
Prediction details: Lara Atkinson

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 34–34
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 30
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 9:38
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +39 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 36.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:23 (3:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 9:38 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 34 Hannelore Willen
BEL
+69 s
+49 s
G3 / G10
21:20
Show details
Prediction details: Hannelore Willen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 34
Deviation: -34

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +69 s
Time: 10:47
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 20.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 37.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 30.5 s
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.65 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:20 (3:53 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:47 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 32:16 (37.6 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 10:03
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
About 43.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +25.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 35 Maddison Yarrow
AUS
+30 s
 Bike DNF 21:02
Show details
Prediction details: Maddison Yarrow

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 35–35
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 35
Deviation: -35

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +30 s
Time: 10:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Bike split not completed

Running and total

Run: 21:02 (3:49 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:48 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 16 Duelle, Korrektur 0.21 %, Sicherheit 83 %
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 10:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: 21:02 (3:49 / km)
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.