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Semifinal 3 Elite Men

04.08.2023 Balikesir TUR
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Sprint and Relay Championships Balikesir

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.08.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 49/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 58.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 41.7 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error8.3
Mean swim error18.3 s
Mean bike-speed error3.58 km/h
Correct bike groups6/24
No history0
Within the 80% range29.2 %
Details
1 / 6 Jannik Schaufler
GER
+14 s
+8 s
G2 / G2
correct 		4:47
5:13
 16:06
Show details
Prediction details: Jannik Schaufler

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 6–10
Top-10 probability: 90 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 3:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 5.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.51 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 43 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.8 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:47 (2:49 / km)
Historical basis: 2:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 4 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:13 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 16:06
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 4:47 (2:49 / km)
Total: 16:06
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 8.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 5 Jan Diener
GER
+13 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 4:54
5:24
 16:13
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Diener

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 3:22
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 5.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 49 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:54 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:53 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:24 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 16:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:22 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 4:54 (2:53 / km)
Total: 16:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 7.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 15 Marcus Dey
GBR
+1 s
+1 s
G1 / G2
 5:10
6:19
 16:14
Show details
Prediction details: Marcus Dey

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 40 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -12

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +1 s
Time: 3:10
Pace: 1:10 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 94 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 5.0 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:10 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:19 (3:43 / km)
Error: −1:09 / −0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 16:14
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:10 (1:10 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 5:10 (3:02 / km)
Total: 16:14
4 / 10 Gergő Dobi
HUN
+7 s
+13 s
G2 / G2
correct 		4:58
5:19
 16:17
Show details
Prediction details: Gergő Dobi

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 74 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +7 s
Time: 3:16
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -6.1 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 76 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.04 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:58 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: −0:03 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:19 (3:08 / km)
Error: −0:21 / −0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 16:17
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:16 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 4:58 (2:56 / km)
Total: 16:17
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 1 Nicola Azzano
ITA
+8 s
+6 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:00
5:09
 16:19
Show details
Prediction details: Nicola Azzano

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 7–14
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 3:17
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 1.5 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:00 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.01 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:09 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 16:19
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:17 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 5:00 (2:56 / km)
Total: 16:19
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 2.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 7 Noah Servais
BEL
+11 s
+9 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:04
5:13
 16:23
Show details
Prediction details: Noah Servais

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 6–18
Top-10 probability: 39 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:20
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 2.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 51 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:04 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:48 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 10
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:13 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 16:23
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:20 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 5:04 (2:59 / km)
Total: 16:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 20 Filip Vaclavik
CZE
+24 s
+17 s
G3 / G4
 4:42
5:33
 16:26
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Vaclavik

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 6–16
Top-10 probability: 51 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:33
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 7.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 31 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:42 (2:46 / km)
Historical basis: 2:46 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:33 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:51 / −0:30 / km
Overall prediction: 16:26
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:33 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:09 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 4:42 (2:46 / km)
Total: 16:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 19.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 17 Valdemar Solok
DEN
+15 s
+17 s
G2 / G3
 5:09
5:48
 16:28
Show details
Prediction details: Valdemar Solok

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 3:24
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -1.6 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 21 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.8 s
Gap behind: 6.0 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:09 (3:02 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.47 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:48 (3:25 / km)
Error: −0:39 / −0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 16:28
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:24 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 5:09 (3:02 / km)
Total: 16:28
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 10.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 4 Alexis Lherieau
SUI
+25 s
+4 s
G3 / G1
 4:54
5:24
 16:38
Show details
Prediction details: Alexis Lherieau

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 8–17
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 4
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 3:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 21.3 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.35 %, Sicherheit 2 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 41.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.05 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:54 (2:53 / km)
Historical basis: 2:54 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.53 %, Sicherheit 2 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:24 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 16:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:34 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:09 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 4:54 (2:53 / km)
Total: 16:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 20.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
10 / 3 Jan Bader
AUT
+32 s
+9 s
G3 / G1
 5:02
5:13
 16:46
Show details
Prediction details: Jan Bader

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 10–19
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 3:41
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 23.2 s
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 23 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:02 (2:58 / km)
Historical basis: 2:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 7 Gegner:innen, 11 Duelle, Korrektur 0.11 %, Sicherheit 16 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:13 (3:04 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 16:46
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:41 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:09 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 5:02 (2:58 / km)
Total: 16:46
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 27.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 9 Gonçalo Oliveira
POR
+34 s
+9 s
G3 / G2
 5:05
5:15
 16:49
Show details
Prediction details: Gonçalo Oliveira

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 13–21
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +34 s
Time: 3:43
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 25.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:05 (2:59 / km)
Historical basis: 2:59 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:15 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 16:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:43 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:09 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 5:05 (2:59 / km)
Total: 16:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 29.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
12 / 12 James Chantler-Mayne
GBR
+28 s
+11 s
G3 / G2
 5:07
5:33
 16:51
Show details
Prediction details: James Chantler-Mayne

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 11–23
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 3:37
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 17.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:07 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:33 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:26 / −0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 16:51
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:37 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:09 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 5:07 (3:01 / km)
Total: 16:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 23.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 13 Mateusz Gluszkowski
POL
+6 s
+0 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:46
5:35
 17:05
Show details
Prediction details: Mateusz Gluszkowski

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 15–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +6 s
Time: 3:15
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 6.0 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 74 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 5.0 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:46 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.08 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:11 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 17:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:15 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 5:46 (3:24 / km)
Total: 17:05
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
14 / 24 Burak Cağdaş
TUR
+35 s
+16 s
G3 / G5
 5:26
6:50
 17:10
Show details
Prediction details: Burak Cağdaş

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 3:44
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 19.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.46 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:26 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:12 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:50 (4:01 / km)
Error: −1:24 / −0:49 / km
Overall prediction: 17:10
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:44 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:09 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 5:26 (3:12 / km)
Total: 17:10
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 30.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 16 Tomas Kriz
CZE
+29 s
+14 s
G3 / G3
correct 		5:28
5:39
 17:12
Show details
Prediction details: Tomas Kriz

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 16–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 3:38
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 15.1 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.75 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:28 (3:13 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur 0.86 %, Sicherheit 9 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:39 (3:19 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 17:12
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:38 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:09 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 5:28 (3:13 / km)
Total: 17:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 24.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 23 Povilas Strazdas
LTU
+9 s
+14 s
G2 / G4
 5:57
6:27
 17:16
Show details
Prediction details: Povilas Strazdas

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 18–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +9 s
Time: 3:18
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -5.4 s
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.72 %, Sicherheit 17 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 63 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.55 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:57 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:32 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 5 Gegner:innen, 8 Duelle, Korrektur -0.92 %, Sicherheit 11 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:27 (3:48 / km)
Error: −0:30 / −0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 17:16
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 3:18 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: 5:57 (3:30 / km)
Total: 17:16
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 3.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 8 Felix Duchampt
ROU
+38 s
+11 s
G4 / G2
 4:59
5:14
 17:20
Show details
Prediction details: Felix Duchampt

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 10–23
Top-10 probability: 14 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 3:47
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 26.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 4:59 (2:56 / km)
Historical basis: 2:56 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:34 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:14 (3:05 / km)
Error: −0:15 / −0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 17:20
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:47 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:43 (40.9 km/h)
Run: 4:59 (2:56 / km)
Total: 17:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 32.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 19 Emir Aracı
TUR
+21 s
+17 s
G3 / G4
 5:46
5:31
 17:30
Show details
Prediction details: Emir Aracı

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 17–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 3:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 4.4 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 6.0 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:46 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:31 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:15 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 17:30
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:09 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 5:46 (3:24 / km)
Total: 17:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 16.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 2 Itamar Levanon
ISR
+57 s
+10 s
G5 / G1
 5:07
5:10
 18:08
Show details
Prediction details: Itamar Levanon

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 18–24
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +57 s
Time: 4:06
Pace: 1:31 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 47.4 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.71 %, Sicherheit 11 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 19.5 s
Gap behind: 5.8 s
Result: Group 1 (4 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:07 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:50 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 7 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:10 (3:02 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 18:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:06 (1:31 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:35 (40.2 km/h)
Run: 5:07 (3:00 / km)
Total: 18:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 52.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 11 Jonathan Oakey
IRL
+38 s
+15 s
G4 / G2
5:36
Show details
Prediction details: Jonathan Oakey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +38 s
Time: 3:47
Pace: 1:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 22.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 19.5 s
Result: Group 2 (10 people)
Speed: 40.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:36 (3:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:47 (1:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:43 (40.9 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 33 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 14 Axel Rosencrantz
SWE
+11 s
+17 s
G2 / G3
5:36
Show details
Prediction details: Axel Rosencrantz

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -14

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 3:20
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: -6.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (9 people)
Gruppe 1: 54 %
Speed: 43.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.82 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:36 (3:18 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:20 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:03 (43.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 6.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 18 Jose Ignacio Galvez Ponce
ESP
+86 s
+17 s
G5 / G3
5:57
Show details
Prediction details: Jose Ignacio Galvez Ponce

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -18

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +86 s
Time: 4:35
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 69.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 22.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (4 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:57 (3:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:35 (1:42 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:35 (40.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 81.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 21 Ivan Shevchenko
UKR
+63 s
+15 s
G5 / G4
5:56
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Shevchenko

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -21

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +63 s
Time: 4:12
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +15 s
Fehler: 48.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.8 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:56 (3:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:12 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:35 (40.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 58.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +4.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Boris Andreev
BUL
+64 s
+12 s
G5 / G4
6:17
Show details
Prediction details: Boris Andreev

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +64 s
Time: 4:13
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 52.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 40.2 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 22.2 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 36.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:17 (3:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 4:13 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:35 (40.2 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:14
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
About 59 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +5 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.