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Semifinal 3 Junior Men

04.08.2023 Balikesir TUR
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Europe Triathlon Sprint and Relay Championships Balikesir

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 04.08.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 60/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 80.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.6
Mean swim error9.3 s
Mean bike-speed error3.15 km/h
Correct bike groups11/24
No history1
Within the 80% range76.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Pablo Isotton
FRA
+10 s
+3 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:07
5:29
 16:49
Show details
Prediction details: Pablo Isotton

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:25
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +3 s
Fehler: 7.1 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 2.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:07 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.49 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:29 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 16:49
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:25 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 5:07 (3:00 / km)
Total: 16:49
2 / 4 Patrik Leitner
AUT
+18 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:14
5:25
 16:56
Show details
Prediction details: Patrik Leitner

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 3–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 3:33
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 11.8 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 29 Duelle, Korrektur -0.44 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:14 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.47 %, Sicherheit 95 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:25 (3:11 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 16:56
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:33 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 5:14 (3:05 / km)
Total: 16:56
3 / 7 Simeone Romano
ITA
+24 s
+12 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:23
5:34
 17:05
Show details
Prediction details: Simeone Romano

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 5–11
Top-10 probability: 88 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 11.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 21 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:23 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:09 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:34 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:11 / −0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 17:05
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:39 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 5:23 (3:10 / km)
Total: 17:05
4 / 8 Gabriel Santos
POR
+25 s
+16 s
G2 / G1
 5:06
5:33
 17:07
Show details
Prediction details: Gabriel Santos

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–15
Top-10 probability: 73 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 3:40
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 9.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 2.1 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:06 (3:00 / km)
Historical basis: 3:00 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:00 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:33 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 17:07
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:40 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:32 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 5:06 (3:00 / km)
Total: 17:07
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 1.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 3 Nils Serre Gehri
FRA
+24 s
+14 s
G2 / G1
 5:08
5:30
 17:09
Show details
Prediction details: Nils Serre Gehri

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 96 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: 9.8 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur -0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 23 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:08 (3:01 / km)
Historical basis: 3:01 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:01 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 85 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:30 (3:14 / km)
Error: −0:22 / −0:13 / km
Overall prediction: 17:09
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:39 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:32 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 5:08 (3:01 / km)
Total: 17:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 6 Márton Kropkó
HUN
+10 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:31
5:29
 17:13
Show details
Prediction details: Márton Kropkó

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 4–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 3:25
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 9.7 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.54 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.38 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:31 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:14 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:29 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 17:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:25 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 5:31 (3:14 / km)
Total: 17:13
7 / 18 Oliver Conway
GBR
+18 s
+18 s
G1 / G2
 5:46
6:03
 17:28
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Conway

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 7–13
Top-10 probability: 76 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -11

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 3:33
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 45 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:46 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:03 (3:34 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 17:28
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:33 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 5:46 (3:24 / km)
Total: 17:28
8 / 11 Antoine L'hôte
SUI
+28 s
+20 s
G2 / G3
 5:32
5:25
 17:33
Show details
Prediction details: Antoine L'hôte

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–17
Top-10 probability: 55 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +28 s
Time: 3:43
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: 8.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.0 s
Gap behind: 7.7 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:32 (3:16 / km)
Historical basis: 3:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 35 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:25 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 17:33
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:43 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:32 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 5:32 (3:16 / km)
Total: 17:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:38
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 4.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 17 Tomer Shapira
ISR
+23 s
+7 s
G1 / G2
 5:55
6:12
 17:37
Show details
Prediction details: Tomer Shapira

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 9–18
Top-10 probability: 28 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 3:38
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 15.5 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.8 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.59 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:55 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:28 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:12 (3:39 / km)
Error: −0:17 / −0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 17:37
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:38 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 5:55 (3:29 / km)
Total: 17:37
10 / 15 Filip Glapa
POL
+27 s
+21 s
G2 / G3
 5:38
5:45
 17:39
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Glapa

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 7–17
Top-10 probability: 46 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 3:42
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 6.2 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 14 Duelle, Korrektur 1.39 %, Sicherheit 33 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 1.0 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:38 (3:19 / km)
Historical basis: 3:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:17 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 8 Gegner:innen, 13 Duelle, Korrektur 1.00 %, Sicherheit 18 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:45 (3:23 / km)
Error: −0:07 / −0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 17:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:42 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:32 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 5:38 (3:19 / km)
Total: 17:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:38
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 3.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 5 Dries Cannaerts
BEL
+12 s
+13 s
G1 / G1
correct 		5:59
5:30
 17:41
Show details
Prediction details: Dries Cannaerts

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 9–14
Top-10 probability: 35 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 3:27
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +13 s
Fehler: -0.6 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 26 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.3 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:59 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:31 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 4 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 25 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:30 (3:14 / km)
Error: +0:29 / +0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 17:41
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:27 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 5:59 (3:31 / km)
Total: 17:41
12 / 16 Domen Bojanc
SLO
+24 s
+17 s
G2 / G3
 5:52
5:51
 17:53
Show details
Prediction details: Domen Bojanc

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–18
Top-10 probability: 20 %
Result: 16
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 6.9 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 1.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 18 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.1 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 38.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.89 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:52 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:51 (3:26 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 17:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:39 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:32 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 5:52 (3:27 / km)
Total: 17:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 0.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 12 Paul Frayon
SWE
+25 s
+12 s
G2 / G1
 5:59
5:55
 18:00
Show details
Prediction details: Paul Frayon

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 10–17
Top-10 probability: 15 %
Result: 12
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +25 s
Time: 3:40
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +12 s
Fehler: 12.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 32 Duelle, Korrektur 0.94 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.87 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:59 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:14 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 6
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.12 %, Sicherheit 87 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:55 (3:29 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 18:00
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:40 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:32 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 5:59 (3:31 / km)
Total: 18:00
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 0.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 10 Poli Stoffel
LUX
+19 s
+18 s
G1 / G1
correct 		6:23
5:36
 18:05
Show details
Prediction details: Poli Stoffel

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–19
Top-10 probability: 8 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +19 s
Time: 3:34
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 1.3 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur 0.89 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 2.4 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.84 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:23 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 25 Duelle, Korrektur -1.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:36 (3:18 / km)
Error: +0:47 / +0:28 / km
Overall prediction: 18:05
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:34 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 6:23 (3:45 / km)
Total: 18:05
15 / 19 Marin Stipčević
CRO
+24 s
+17 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:07
6:15
 18:08
Show details
Prediction details: Marin Stipčević

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 19
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +24 s
Time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +17 s
Fehler: 6.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur 0.80 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (3 people)
Speed: 39.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:07 (3:36 / km)
Historical basis: 3:36 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 28 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:15 (3:41 / km)
Error: −0:08 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 18:08
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:39 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:32 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 6:07 (3:36 / km)
Total: 18:08
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 0.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 13 Mathys Bocquet
IRL
+43 s
+21 s
G3 / G3
correct 		5:40
5:35
 18:32
Show details
Prediction details: Mathys Bocquet

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 9–21
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 3:58
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 21.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 4.0 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.80 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:40 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:19 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:19 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:35 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 18:32
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 3:58 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:05 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:40 (3:20 / km)
Total: 18:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 9 Filip Lizak
SVK
+36 s
+16 s
G3 / G1
 5:44
5:34
 18:36
Show details
Prediction details: Filip Lizak

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 9–19
Top-10 probability: 26 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +36 s
Time: 3:51
Pace: 1:26 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +16 s
Fehler: 19.9 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur -0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 9 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 7.7 s
Gap behind: 2.9 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.06 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:44 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 26 Duelle, Korrektur 0.28 %, Sicherheit 98 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:34 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:10 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 18:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:51 (1:26 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:05 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:44 (3:22 / km)
Total: 18:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 12.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 14 Joran Stobbe
NED
+39 s
+24 s
G3 / G3
correct 		5:44
5:42
 18:36
Show details
Prediction details: Joran Stobbe

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 9–20
Top-10 probability: 16 %
Result: 14
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 3:54
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +24 s
Fehler: 15.2 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 8 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 3.7 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 39.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.70 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:44 (3:23 / km)
Historical basis: 3:22 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 94 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:42 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:02 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 18:36
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:54 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:05 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 5:44 (3:23 / km)
Total: 18:36
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:38
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 15.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 21 Gert Martin Savitsch
EST
+22 s
+19 s
G1 / G4
 7:11
6:04
 18:53
Show details
Prediction details: Gert Martin Savitsch

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 3:37
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 2.7 s
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur 0.93 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.4 s
Gap behind: 0.8 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 36.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:11 (4:13 / km)
Historical basis: 4:17 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:44 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 17 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -1.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:04 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:07 / +0:39 / km
Overall prediction: 18:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:37 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: 7:11 (4:13 / km)
Total: 18:53
20 / 22 Dorukalp Azizoğlu
TUR
+27 s
+19 s
G2 / G5
 7:01
5:31
 19:02
Show details
Prediction details: Dorukalp Azizoğlu

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 3:42
Pace: 1:22 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +19 s
Fehler: 8.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 22 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (8 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 41.6 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.1 s
Gap behind: 0.1 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 34.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:01 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 22 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:31 (3:15 / km)
Error: +1:30 / +0:53 / km
Overall prediction: 19:02
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 3:42 (1:22 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:32 (41.6 km/h)
Run: 7:01 (4:08 / km)
Total: 19:02
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 3.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 25 Hristo Kirchev Panev
BUL
+47 s
+42 s
G3 / G8
 6:32
6:31
 19:24
Show details
Prediction details: Hristo Kirchev Panev

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 21–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +47 s
Time: 4:02
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +42 s
Fehler: 4.9 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 4.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 8.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:32 (3:50 / km)
Historical basis: 3:49 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:49 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:31 (3:50 / km)
Error: +0:01 / +0:00 / km
Overall prediction: 19:24
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 4:02 (1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:05 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 6:32 (3:50 / km)
Total: 19:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 23.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
22 / 20 Ivan Tkachenko
UKR
+39 s
+25 s
G3 / G3
correct 		6:41
6:11
 19:33
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Tkachenko

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 19–23
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 20
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 3:54
Pace: 1:27 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +25 s
Fehler: 13.8 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 15 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.91 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:41 (3:56 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:55 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur 0.40 %, Sicherheit 15 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:11 (3:38 / km)
Error: +0:30 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 19:33
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:54 (1:27 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:05 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 6:41 (3:56 / km)
Total: 19:33
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 15.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
23 / 24 Oskaras Grigonis
LTU
+43 s
+26 s
G3 / G7
 6:45
6:31
 19:37
Show details
Prediction details: Oskaras Grigonis

Placement

Prediction: 23
80% range: 22–24
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 3:58
Pace: 1:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 16.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur -0.59 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (6 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 39.7 km/h
Gap ahead: 3.7 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 7.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:45 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 27 Duelle, Korrektur 0.26 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:31 (3:50 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 19:37
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 3:58 (1:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:05 (39.7 km/h)
Run: 6:45 (3:58 / km)
Total: 19:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 3:39
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +23.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 José Ramón Jímenez Blazquez
ESP
+15 s
+11 s
G1 / G1
correct
5:29
Show details
Prediction details: José Ramón Jímenez Blazquez

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 3:30
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +11 s
Fehler: 4.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (10 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 42.5 km/h
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (11 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:29 (3:14 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 3:30 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:18 (42.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 23 Bahadır Furkan Özerkişi
TUR
+0 s
+30 s
G0 / G6
6:24
Show details
Prediction details: Bahadır Furkan Özerkişi

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 25–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 3:15
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:24 (3:46 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 3:15 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.