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Elite Women

27.05.2023 Port Douglas AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Oceania Triathlon Cup and Championships Port Douglas

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 27.05.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 61/100 mittel
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 82.4 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 100.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.2
Mean swim error28.5 s
Mean bike-speed error1.77 km/h
Correct bike groups5/17
No history0
Within the 80% range70.6 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Nicole Van Der Kaay
NZL
+52 s
+1 s
G2 / G1
 34:49
34:06
 1:38:39
Show details
Prediction details: Nicole Van Der Kaay

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 20:05
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 50.5 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.49 %, Sicherheit 80 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 12.3 s
Gap behind: 0.5 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 34:49 (3:29 / km)
Historical basis: 3:29 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 68 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:06 (3:25 / km)
Error: +0:43 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:38:39
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:05 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 34:49 (3:29 / km)
Total: 1:38:39
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 32.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 4 Ainsley Thorpe
NZL
+52 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 36:05
35:21
 1:39:55
Show details
Prediction details: Ainsley Thorpe

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–7
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 20:05
Pace: 1:20 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 52.0 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.15 %, Sicherheit 73 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.5 s
Gap behind: 3.2 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:05 (3:37 / km)
Historical basis: 3:37 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:37 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 31 Duelle, Korrektur -0.32 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:21 (3:32 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:39:55
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:05 (1:20 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 36:05 (3:37 / km)
Total: 1:39:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 32.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5 Charlotte McShane
AUS
+20 s
+8 s
G2 / G1
 36:48
35:57
 1:40:38
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte McShane

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 2–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 19:33
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 11.6 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 41 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 65 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 2.6 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:48 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:41 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:41 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 24 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 32 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 35:57 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:38
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:33 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 36:48 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:40:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 0.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 6 Brea Roderick
NZL
+23 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 36:55
37:15
 1:40:45
Show details
Prediction details: Brea Roderick

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 2–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +23 s
Time: 19:36
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 16.3 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.22 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 40 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.1 s
Gap behind: 5.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:55 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.31 %, Sicherheit 70 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:15 (3:44 / km)
Error: −0:20 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:40:45
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:36 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 36:55 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:40:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 14 Olivia Cummings
NZL
+39 s
+9 s
G2 / G2
correct 		37:23
38:20
 1:41:13
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Cummings

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 94 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 19:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 30.2 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 79 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 29 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 12.3 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 38.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:23 (3:44 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.58 %, Sicherheit 77 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:20 (3:50 / km)
Error: −0:57 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:13
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 37:23 (3:44 / km)
Total: 1:41:13
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 19.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 13 Jessica Ewart-Mctigue
AUS
+68 s
+133 s
G3 / G3
correct 		36:47
36:28
 1:41:24
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Ewart-Mctigue

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 1–16
Top-10 probability: 78 %
Result: 13
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +68 s
Time: 20:21
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +133 s
Fehler: -64.6 s
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 1.23 %, Sicherheit 32 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 19 %
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 10.4 s
Gap behind: 16.2 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 39.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.49 km/h

Running and total

Run: 36:47 (3:41 / km)
Historical basis: 3:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:36 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 11 Gegner:innen, 23 Duelle, Korrektur 0.76 %, Sicherheit 34 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:28 (3:39 / km)
Error: +0:19 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:24
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:21 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:03:28 (37.8 km/h)
Run: 36:47 (3:41 / km)
Total: 1:41:24
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 49.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 2 Jaz Hedgeland
AUS
+55 s
+2 s
G2 / G1
 37:35
34:29
 1:41:25
Show details
Prediction details: Jaz Hedgeland

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 4–13
Top-10 probability: 81 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +55 s
Time: 20:08
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +2 s
Fehler: 53.2 s
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.14 %, Sicherheit 70 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 15 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.2 s
Gap behind: 2.8 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.20 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:35 (3:45 / km)
Historical basis: 3:42 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 14 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur 1.62 %, Sicherheit 46 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:29 (3:27 / km)
Error: +3:06 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:08 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 37:35 (3:45 / km)
Total: 1:41:25
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 35.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
8 / 3 Charlotte Derbyshire
AUS
+35 s
+7 s
G2 / G1
 37:58
34:45
 1:41:48
Show details
Prediction details: Charlotte Derbyshire

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 6–9
Top-10 probability: 99 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +35 s
Time: 19:48
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 28.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -0.36 %, Sicherheit 62 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.8 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 37:58 (3:48 / km)
Historical basis: 3:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 34 Duelle, Korrektur -1.18 %, Sicherheit 69 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 34:45 (3:29 / km)
Error: +3:13 / +0:19 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:48
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:48 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 37:58 (3:48 / km)
Total: 1:41:48
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 15.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
9 / 12 Chloe Bateup
AUS
+12 s
+7 s
G1 / G3
 38:49
36:07
 1:41:52
Show details
Prediction details: Chloe Bateup

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 2–14
Top-10 probability: 68 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 19:25
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 5.4 s
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 19 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 78 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 1.6 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:49 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: −0:05 / km
Comparable races: 6
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 9 Gegner:innen, 9 Duelle, Korrektur -0.39 %, Sicherheit 19 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 36:07 (3:37 / km)
Error: +2:42 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:52
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:25 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:48 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 38:49 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:41:52
10 / 7 Aleisha Wesley
AUS
+15 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		38:51
37:53
 1:41:54
Show details
Prediction details: Aleisha Wesley

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 5–10
Top-10 probability: 95 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +15 s
Time: 19:28
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 7.4 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.46 %, Sicherheit 56 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.4 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:51 (3:53 / km)
Historical basis: 3:55 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:45 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 9
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 30 Duelle, Korrektur -0.11 %, Sicherheit 55 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:53 (3:47 / km)
Error: +0:58 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 1:41:54
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:28 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:48 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 38:51 (3:53 / km)
Total: 1:41:54
11 / 8 Hannah Knighton
NZL
+14 s
+4 s
G1 / G1
correct 		39:40
38:14
 1:42:43
Show details
Prediction details: Hannah Knighton

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 8–12
Top-10 probability: 56 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 19:27
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 10.0 s
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur 0.04 %, Sicherheit 84 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 58 %
Speed: 38.2 km/h
Gap ahead: 1.6 s
Gap behind: 1.4 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 39:40 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:53 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 7
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 16 Gegner:innen, 49 Duelle, Korrektur -0.03 %, Sicherheit 80 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 38:14 (3:49 / km)
Error: +1:26 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 1:42:43
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:27 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:48 (38.2 km/h)
Run: 39:40 (3:58 / km)
Total: 1:42:43
12 / 11 Lauren Kerwick
AUS
+29 s
+0 s
G2 / G1
 40:40
39:28
 1:44:30
Show details
Prediction details: Lauren Kerwick

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 10–14
Top-10 probability: 13 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +29 s
Time: 19:42
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 28.7 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 27 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 36 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.4 s
Gap behind: 2.5 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 40:40 (4:04 / km)
Historical basis: 4:05 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 12 Duelle, Korrektur -0.22 %, Sicherheit 27 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:28 (3:57 / km)
Error: +1:12 / +0:07 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:30
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:42 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 40:40 (4:04 / km)
Total: 1:44:30
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 9.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 15 Victoria Gillies
AUS
+58 s
+28 s
G2 / G3
 41:03
41:13
 1:44:53
Show details
Prediction details: Victoria Gillies

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 11–16
Top-10 probability: 10 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 20:11
Pace: 1:21 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +28 s
Fehler: 30.0 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.14 %, Sicherheit 67 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.8 s
Gap behind: 10.4 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:03 (4:06 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:54 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 8
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.24 %, Sicherheit 65 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 41:13 (4:07 / km)
Error: −0:10 / −0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 1:44:53
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 20:11 (1:21 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 41:03 (4:06 / km)
Total: 1:44:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 38.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 10 Zoe Clarke
AUS
+22 s
+4 s
G2 / G2
correct 		41:19
37:10
 1:45:09
Show details
Prediction details: Zoe Clarke

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 12–15
Top-10 probability: 3 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +22 s
Time: 19:35
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +4 s
Fehler: 18.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 39 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.6 s
Gap behind: 1.1 s
Result: Group 2 (2 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.71 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:19 (4:08 / km)
Historical basis: 4:08 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 37:10 (3:43 / km)
Error: +4:09 / +0:25 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:09
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:35 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 41:19 (4:08 / km)
Total: 1:45:09
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 2.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
15 / 9 Sarah McClure
NZL
+39 s
+9 s
G2 / G1
 41:36
39:14
 1:45:26
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah McClure

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 12–16
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +39 s
Time: 19:52
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 29.9 s
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 63 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 28 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (10 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.27 km/h

Running and total

Run: 41:36 (4:10 / km)
Historical basis: 4:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 4
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 15 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 58 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 39:14 (3:55 / km)
Error: +2:22 / +0:14 / km
Overall prediction: 1:45:26
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:52 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 41:36 (4:10 / km)
Total: 1:45:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 19.6 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
16 / 16 Isla Watson
AUS
+31 s
+18 s
G2 / G3
 43:30
42:51
 1:47:20
Show details
Prediction details: Isla Watson

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 19:44
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 13.2 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (12 people)
Gruppe 1: 34 %
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 2.5 s
Gap behind: 3.8 s
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.02 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:30 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:51 (4:17 / km)
Error: +0:39 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 1:47:20
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 19:44 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:02:52 (38.1 km/h)
Run: 43:30 (4:21 / km)
Total: 1:47:20
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:32
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 11.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 17 Laura Gillard
AUS
+85 s
+49 s
G4 / G3
 38:37
42:38
 1:51:41
Show details
Prediction details: Laura Gillard

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 11–17
Top-10 probability: 9 %
Result: 17
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +85 s
Time: 20:38
Pace: 1:23 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 35.6 s
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 45 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 16.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 3 (6 people)
Speed: 38.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -4.93 km/h

Running and total

Run: 38:37 (3:52 / km)
Historical basis: 3:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:52 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
H2H: 12 Gegner:innen, 20 Duelle, Korrektur -0.08 %, Sicherheit 45 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 42:38 (4:16 / km)
Error: −4:01 / −0:24 / km
Overall prediction: 1:51:41
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 20:38 (1:23 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:11:39 (33.5 km/h)
Run: 38:37 (3:52 / km)
Total: 1:51:41
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 19:33
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
About 65.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.3 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.