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U23 Men

18.03.2023 Devonport AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Oceania Triathlon Cup and Sprint Championships Devonport

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 18.03.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 51/100 niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 61.5 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 84.6 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error6.2
Mean swim error39.2 s
Mean bike-speed error3.54 km/h
Correct bike groups11/26
No history0
Within the 80% range30.8 %
Details
1 / 2 Bradley Course
AUS
+12 s
+20 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:24
15:16
 43:36
Show details
Prediction details: Bradley Course

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 4–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -8.1 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 21 Duelle, Korrektur 0.37 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 91 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 1.5 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Historical basis: 3:03 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:16 (3:03 / km)
Error: +0:08 / +0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 43:36
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:24 (3:05 / km)
Total: 43:36
2 / 1 Dylan McCullough
NZL
+3 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:47
15:06
 43:59
Show details
Prediction details: Dylan McCullough

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–11
Top-10 probability: 89 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +3 s
Time: 8:59
Pace: 1:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 3.0 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 7.2 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 39.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Historical basis: 3:12 / km
Best comparable pace: 2:59 / km
Trend: −0:02 / km
Comparable races: 5
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 42 Duelle, Korrektur 0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:06 (3:01 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 43:59
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 8:59 (1:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:47 (3:09 / km)
Total: 43:59
3 / 4 Saxon Morgan
NZL
+21 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:48
15:43
 44:00
Show details
Prediction details: Saxon Morgan

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 6–13
Top-10 probability: 80 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 12.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 55 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.3 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:06 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 7
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 45 Duelle, Korrektur 0.61 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:43 (3:09 / km)
Error: +0:05 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:00
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:00
4 / 3 Oscar Dart
AUS
+11 s
+8 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:49
15:31
 44:01
Show details
Prediction details: Oscar Dart

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 98 %
Result: 3
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +11 s
Time: 9:07
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 3.1 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.29 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.9 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.12 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:09 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: −0:01 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 43 Duelle, Korrektur 0.91 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:31 (3:06 / km)
Error: +0:18 / +0:04 / km
Overall prediction: 44:01
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:07 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Total: 44:01
5 / 5 Lachlan Haycock
NZL
+12 s
+7 s
G1 / G1
correct 		15:58
15:51
 44:10
Show details
Prediction details: Lachlan Haycock

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 4–14
Top-10 probability: 75 %
Result: 5
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +12 s
Time: 9:08
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 4.5 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.25 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 88 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.32 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Historical basis: 3:11 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: +0:07 / +0:01 / km
Overall prediction: 44:10
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:08 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 15:58 (3:12 / km)
Total: 44:10
6 / 15 James Corbett
TRI
+13 s
+7 s
G1 / G2
 16:10
16:19
 44:22
Show details
Prediction details: James Corbett

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 5–12
Top-10 probability: 65 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +13 s
Time: 9:09
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +7 s
Fehler: 6.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.16 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 73 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.5 s
Gap behind: 3.1 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.78 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Historical basis: 3:13 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 40 Duelle, Korrektur 0.36 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:09 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 44:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:09 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:10 (3:14 / km)
Total: 44:22
7 / 12 Sam Parry
NZL
+18 s
+20 s
G1 / G2
 16:50
15:49
 45:02
Show details
Prediction details: Sam Parry

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 10–14
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 12
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +20 s
Fehler: -2.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 81 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 0.0 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.48 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:05 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.48 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: +1:01 / +0:12 / km
Overall prediction: 45:02
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:50 (3:22 / km)
Total: 45:02
8 / 7 Austin Carter
NZL
+21 s
+9 s
G1 / G1
correct 		16:58
16:16
 45:10
Show details
Prediction details: Austin Carter

Placement

Prediction: 8
80% range: 11–15
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 7
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +21 s
Time: 9:17
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +9 s
Fehler: 11.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.10 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 56 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 39.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.19 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Historical basis: 3:25 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:16 (3:15 / km)
Error: +0:42 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:10
Data basis: 8 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:17 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 16:58 (3:24 / km)
Total: 45:10
9 / 8 Ivan Abele
NZL
+18 s
+22 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:13
16:19
 45:25
Show details
Prediction details: Ivan Abele

Placement

Prediction: 9
80% range: 7–22
Top-10 probability: 30 %
Result: 8
Deviation: 1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +18 s
Time: 9:14
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +22 s
Fehler: -4.4 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.0 s
Gap behind: 1.9 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.99 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:16 / km
Trend: −0:04 / km
Comparable races: 4
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Error: +0:54 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 45:25
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:14 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 17:13 (3:27 / km)
Total: 45:25
10 / 14 Toby Powers
AUS
+52 s
+54 s
G3 / G2
 15:52
16:19
 45:35
Show details
Prediction details: Toby Powers

Placement

Prediction: 10
80% range: 9–20
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 14
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +54 s
Fehler: -1.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.06 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.9 s
Gap behind: 0.2 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 39.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Historical basis: 3:10 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:03 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur 0.39 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:19 (3:16 / km)
Error: −0:27 / −0:05 / km
Overall prediction: 45:35
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 15:52 (3:10 / km)
Total: 45:35
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 28 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
11 / 11 Jordan Rieck
AUS
+17 s
+21 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:37
16:44
 45:49
Show details
Prediction details: Jordan Rieck

Placement

Prediction: 11
80% range: 14–19
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: -4.5 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.01 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 71 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 3.1 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.08 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Historical basis: 3:32 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.12 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:44 (3:21 / km)
Error: +0:53 / +0:11 / km
Overall prediction: 45:49
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Total: 45:49
12 / 20 Rory Thornhill
AUS
+27 s
+32 s
G2 / G4
 17:08
16:27
 45:51
Show details
Prediction details: Rory Thornhill

Placement

Prediction: 12
80% range: 13–18
Top-10 probability: 1 %
Result: 20
Deviation: -8

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +27 s
Time: 9:23
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +32 s
Fehler: -5.5 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 25 %
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 4.3 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.76 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.20 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:27 (3:17 / km)
Error: +0:41 / +0:08 / km
Overall prediction: 45:51
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:23 (1:15 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:12 (42.6 km/h)
Run: 17:08 (3:26 / km)
Total: 45:51
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 2.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
13 / 6 Henry McMecking
NZL
+31 s
+36 s
G2 / G1
 17:12
15:51
 45:55
Show details
Prediction details: Henry McMecking

Placement

Prediction: 13
80% range: 9–23
Top-10 probability: 18 %
Result: 6
Deviation: 7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: -5.2 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.07 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 35 %
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.3 s
Gap behind: 0.3 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Historical basis: 3:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 38 Duelle, Korrektur -0.53 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:51 (3:10 / km)
Error: +1:21 / +0:16 / km
Overall prediction: 45:55
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:12 (42.6 km/h)
Run: 17:12 (3:26 / km)
Total: 45:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 6.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
14 / 9 Lachlan Jones
AUS
+10 s
+6 s
G1 / G1
correct 		17:51
16:22
 46:03
Show details
Prediction details: Lachlan Jones

Placement

Prediction: 14
80% range: 16–20
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation: 5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +10 s
Time: 9:06
Pace: 1:13 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +6 s
Fehler: 4.2 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 93 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 7.2 s
Gap behind: 0.9 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 39.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.35 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:35 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:22 (3:16 / km)
Error: +1:29 / +0:18 / km
Overall prediction: 46:03
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:06 (1:13 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 17:51 (3:34 / km)
Total: 46:03
15 / 21 Lleyton Wall
AUS
+20 s
+10 s
G1 / G3
 17:53
17:22
 46:05
Show details
Prediction details: Lleyton Wall

Placement

Prediction: 15
80% range: 16–21
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 21
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +20 s
Time: 9:16
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +10 s
Fehler: 9.5 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.02 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 69 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 1.9 s
Gap behind: 1.3 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 38.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Historical basis: 3:35 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:22 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:31 / +0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:05
Data basis: 11 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:16 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 17:53 (3:35 / km)
Total: 46:05
16 / 13 Luke Scott
NZL
+32 s
+29 s
G2 / G2
correct 		17:29
15:49
 46:12
Show details
Prediction details: Luke Scott

Placement

Prediction: 16
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation: 3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +32 s
Time: 9:28
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +29 s
Fehler: 2.8 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 14 %
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 11.6 s
Result: Group 2 (4 people)
Speed: 38.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.86 km/h

Running and total

Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Historical basis: 3:31 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:08 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.63 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:49 (3:10 / km)
Error: +1:40 / +0:20 / km
Overall prediction: 46:12
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:28 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:12 (42.6 km/h)
Run: 17:29 (3:30 / km)
Total: 46:12
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 7.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
17 / 18 Gus Marfell
NZL
+59 s
+51 s
G3 / G4
 16:40
15:56
 46:23
Show details
Prediction details: Gus Marfell

Placement

Prediction: 17
80% range: 13–22
Top-10 probability: 5 %
Result: 18
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +51 s
Fehler: 7.6 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.45 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 6 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 6.3 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.39 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Historical basis: 3:18 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:18 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:56 (3:11 / km)
Error: +0:44 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 46:23
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 16:40 (3:20 / km)
Total: 46:23
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 34.5 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
18 / 16 Benjamin Airey
NZL
+43 s
+21 s
G3 / G1
 16:51
17:23
 46:34
Show details
Prediction details: Benjamin Airey

Placement

Prediction: 18
80% range: 15–22
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +43 s
Time: 9:39
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +21 s
Fehler: 22.4 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 19 Duelle, Korrektur -0.78 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.6 s
Gap behind: 0.6 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.58 km/h

Running and total

Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Historical basis: 3:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur 0.82 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:23 (3:29 / km)
Error: −0:32 / −0:06 / km
Overall prediction: 46:34
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:39 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 16:51 (3:22 / km)
Total: 46:34
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 19.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
19 / 10 Oliver Larcombe
NZL
+31 s
+38 s
G2 / G1
 18:49
16:39
 47:32
Show details
Prediction details: Oliver Larcombe

Placement

Prediction: 19
80% range: 22–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation: 9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +31 s
Time: 9:27
Pace: 1:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +38 s
Fehler: -6.9 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur 0.30 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 24 %
Speed: 42.6 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.3 s
Gap behind: 0.7 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Historical basis: 3:47 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:28 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.43 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 16:39 (3:20 / km)
Error: +2:10 / +0:26 / km
Overall prediction: 47:32
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:27 (1:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:12 (42.6 km/h)
Run: 18:49 (3:46 / km)
Total: 47:32
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
20 / 24 Jordan Chugg
AUS
+52 s
+83 s
G3 / G5
 18:10
17:18
 47:53
Show details
Prediction details: Jordan Chugg

Placement

Prediction: 20
80% range: 22–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 24
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +52 s
Time: 9:48
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +83 s
Fehler: -30.7 s
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.27 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 5 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.2 s
Gap behind: 6.3 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 37.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.67 km/h

Running and total

Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:39 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
H2H: 21 Gegner:innen, 36 Duelle, Korrektur -0.40 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:18 (3:28 / km)
Error: +0:52 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 47:53
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:48 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 18:10 (3:38 / km)
Total: 47:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 28.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
21 / 19 Nick Frisby
AUS
+17 s
+26 s
G1 / G1
correct 		20:07
18:13
 48:19
Show details
Prediction details: Nick Frisby

Placement

Prediction: 21
80% range: 23–25
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 19
Deviation: 2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +17 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 1:14 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: -8.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (13 people)
Gruppe 1: 70 %
Speed: 43.1 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.7 s
Gap behind: 0.4 s
Result: Group 1 (13 people)
Speed: 40.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.79 km/h

Running and total

Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Historical basis: 4:02 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:02 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 18:13 (3:39 / km)
Error: +1:54 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 48:19
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 9:13 (1:14 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 27:51 (43.1 km/h)
Run: 20:07 (4:01 / km)
Total: 48:19
22 / 23 Darcy Williams
AUS
+48 s
+50 s
G3 / G4
 19:43
17:49
 49:26
Show details
Prediction details: Darcy Williams

Placement

Prediction: 22
80% range: 25–26
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 23
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +48 s
Time: 9:44
Pace: 1:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +50 s
Fehler: -1.8 s
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.09 %, Sicherheit 100 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 4.2 s
Gap behind: 3.9 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 38.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.52 km/h

Running and total

Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Historical basis: 3:57 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:57 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 18 Gegner:innen, 18 Duelle, Korrektur -0.28 %, Sicherheit 100 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:49 (3:34 / km)
Error: +1:54 / +0:23 / km
Overall prediction: 49:26
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 9:44 (1:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.7 km/h)
Run: 19:43 (3:57 / km)
Total: 49:26
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 24.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 17 Liam Dixon
AUS
+860 s
+33 s
G5 / G4
15:48
Show details
Prediction details: Liam Dixon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -17

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +860 s
Time: 23:16
Pace: 3:06 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +33 s
Fehler: 827.3 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 699.8 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.62 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 15:48 (3:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:16 (3:06 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 836.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 22 Harvey Lanigan
AUS
+44 s
+26 s
G3 / G4
17:37
Show details
Prediction details: Harvey Lanigan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 22
Deviation: -22

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +44 s
Time: 9:40
Pace: 1:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +26 s
Fehler: 18.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.6 s
Gap behind: 4.2 s
Result: Group 4 (5 people)
Speed: 37.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:37 (3:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 9:40 (1:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 19.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 25 Ryan Marsh
AUS
+59 s
+57 s
G3 / G5
17:22
Show details
Prediction details: Ryan Marsh

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 25
Deviation: -25

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +59 s
Time: 9:55
Pace: 1:19 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +57 s
Fehler: 2.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (7 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 41.7 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 0.4 s
Gap behind: 101.5 s
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 36.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 5.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 17:22 (3:28 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:55 (1:19 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 28:44 (41.7 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:20
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 34.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 26 Jack Mitchell
AUS
+161 s
+158 s
G4 / G6
22:28
Show details
Prediction details: Jack Mitchell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 26
Deviation: -26

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +161 s
Time: 11:37
Pace: 1:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +158 s
Fehler: 2.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 101.5 s
Gap behind: 699.8 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.10 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 22:28 (4:30 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 11:37 (1:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 29:40 (40.5 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 9:21
Pace: 1:15 / 100 m
About 136.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +24.1 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.