Prediction comparison
PTS2 Men
05.02.2023
Stockton
AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Oceania Triathlon Para Championships Stockton
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 05.02.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
20/100
sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error1.0
Mean swim error25.0 s
Mean bike-speed error5.81 km/h
Correct bike groups0/2
No history0
Within the 80% range0.0 %
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 1 |
Glen Jarvis
AUS
|
+136 s
+86 s
|
G2 / G1
|
28:34
30:26
|
1:09:31 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +136 s
Time: 15:05
Pace: 2:01 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +86 s
Fehler: 50.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
136.0 s
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -1.06 km/h
Running and totalRun: 28:34 (5:43 / km)
Historical basis: 5:43 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:43 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 30:26 (6:05 / km)
Error: −1:52 / −0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 1:09:31
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
15:05
(2:01 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
38:41
(31.0 km/h)
Run:
28:34
(5:43 / km)
Total:
1:09:31
Target first bike group at the bike finishGoal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 12:53
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
About 132.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
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| 0 / 2 |
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Brant Garvey
AUS
|
+0 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G2
|
29:10
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -2
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 12:49
Pace: 1:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
136.0 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 29.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 10.56 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 29:10 (5:50 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
12:49
(1:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
29:40
(40.5 km/h)
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
|