Prediction comparison
PTS4 Men
30.04.2023
Busselton
AUS
Race information and calculation basis
2023 Oceania Triathlon Para Cup Busselton
Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 30.04.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.
Prediction model used
Modell v15
Default values
Prediction quality
45/100
niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality
Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.
Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s
Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s
Gruppeneffekt 0.65
Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h
Datenabdeckung 50.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen
Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.
Show methodology
Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.
Prediction comparison
Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error0.0
Mean swim error0.0 s
Mean bike-speed error0.53 km/h
Correct bike groups1/1
No history1
Within the 80% range100.0 %
| Details | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 / 1 |
Liam Twomey
AUS
|
+0 s
+0 s
|
G1 / G1
correct
|
23:08
21:16
|
57:04 | Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:15
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 34.3 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.53 km/h
Running and totalRun: 23:08 (4:38 / km)
Historical basis: 4:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:16 (4:15 / km)
Error: +1:52 / +0:22 / km
Overall prediction: 57:04
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming:
11:15
(1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
33:56
(34.3 km/h)
Run:
23:08
(4:38 / km)
Total:
57:04
|
| 0 / 2 |
Kurt Peterson
NZL
|
+0 s
+399 s
|
G0 / G2
|
21:02
|
Show detailsPlacementPrediction: 0
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:
SwimmingPrognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 11:15
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +399 s
Fehler: 0.0 s
CyclingPrediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead:
–
Gap behind:
–
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 29.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h
Running and totalRun: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 21:02 (4:12 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming:
11:15
(1:30 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time):
–
Run:
–
Total:
not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
|