Prediction comparison

25-29 Male AG

24.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2023 World Triathlon Age-Group Aquabike Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 24.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v14 Default values

Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 33.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error2.5

Mean swim error35.0 s

Mean bike-speed error1.43 km/h

Correct bike groups1/4

No history2

Within the 80% range66.7 %

Place Prediction / result	Athlete	Swimming Prediction / result	Bike group Prediction / result	Run Prediction / result	Overall prediction	Details
1 / 4	Thomas James GBR	+250 s +162 s	G2 / G4	46:17	2:01:06	Show details Prediction details: Thomas James Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +250 s Time: 25:49 Pace: 1:43 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +162 s Fehler: 88.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 33.5 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 137.0 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 31.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.67 km/h Running and total Run: 46:17 (4:38 / km) Historical basis: 4:38 / km Best comparable pace: 4:38 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 2:01:06 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 25:49 (1:43 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:39 (33.5 km/h) Run: 46:17 (4:38 / km) Total: 2:01:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 21:59 Pace: 1:28 / 100 m About 230.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +19.7 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3	Henrique Pedroso Silvério BRA	+0 s +8 s	G1 / G3	51:34	2:01:44	Show details Prediction details: Henrique Pedroso Silvério Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 3–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 21:39 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +8 s Fehler: -8.0 s H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 % Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 93 % Speed: 33.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 3 (1 people) Speed: 34.2 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.41 km/h Running and total Run: 51:34 (5:09 / km) Historical basis: 5:09 / km Best comparable pace: 5:09 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 2:01:44 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 21:39 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:17 (33.8 km/h) Run: 51:34 (5:09 / km) Total: 2:01:44
0 / 1	Adrian Picallo Mato ESP	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct			Show details Prediction details: Adrian Picallo Mato Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: -1 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 21:39 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 33.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 113.0 s Result: Group 1 (1 people) Speed: 34.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.97 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 21:39 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:17 (33.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 2	Eric Clonan IRL	+0 s +99 s	G0 / G2			Show details Prediction details: Eric Clonan Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 21:39 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +99 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 35.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 21:39 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	George Comerford GBR	+113 s +157 s	G1 / G5			Show details Prediction details: George Comerford Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 5 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +113 s Time: 23:32 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +157 s Fehler: -44.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (3 people) Gruppe 1: 93 % Speed: 33.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 113.0 s Gap behind: 137.0 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 31.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.68 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20 Swimming: 23:32 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:17 (33.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 6	George Light GBR	+0 s +442 s	G0 / G6			Show details Prediction details: George Light Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 21:39 Pace: 1:27 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +442 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 21:39 (1:27 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.

Prediction comparison

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