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Prediction comparison

35-39 Female AG

24.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Age-Group Aquabike Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 24.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 27/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 13.3 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 13.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error5.0
Mean swim error116.7 s
Mean bike-speed error2.24 km/h
Correct bike groups2/8
No history7
Within the 80% range0.0 %
Details
1 / 1 Ange Keen
NZL
+14 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		43:29 1:50:25
Show details
Prediction details: Ange Keen

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +14 s
Time: 23:39
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 14.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 35.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 31.0 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 34.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.14 km/h

Running and total

Run: 43:29 (4:21 / km)
Historical basis: 4:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:13 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 3
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 1:50:25
Data basis: 10 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 23:39 (1:35 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:06:42 (35.5 km/h)
Run: 43:29 (4:21 / km)
Total: 1:50:25
2 / 2 Courtney Lang
CAN
+75 s
+1 s
G2 / G2
correct 		46:38 1:58:59
Show details
Prediction details: Courtney Lang

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +75 s
Time: 24:40
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +1 s
Fehler: 74.1 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 30.1 s
Gap behind: 11.9 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 32.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: 46:38 (4:40 / km)
Historical basis: 4:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 1:58:59
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 24:40 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:54 (33.4 km/h)
Run: 46:38 (4:40 / km)
Total: 1:58:59
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 23:43
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 57.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5 Wendy Seguine
USA
+45 s
+133 s
G2 / G5
 47:26 1:59:47
Show details
Prediction details: Wendy Seguine

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 6–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +45 s
Time: 24:10
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +133 s
Fehler: -88.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 10 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 31.0 s
Gap behind: 30.1 s
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.11 km/h

Running and total

Run: 47:26 (4:45 / km)
Historical basis: 4:45 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:45 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 1:59:47
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 24:10 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:54 (33.4 km/h)
Run: 47:26 (4:45 / km)
Total: 1:59:47
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 23:43
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 27.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 11 Irma Araceli González Lee
MEX
+580 s
+495 s
G3 / G11
 50:56 2:18:55
Show details
Prediction details: Irma Araceli González Lee

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +580 s
Time: 33:05
Pace: 2:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +495 s
Fehler: 84.8 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 5.7 s
Gap behind: 86.2 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 27.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.88 km/h

Running and total

Run: 50:56 (5:06 / km)
Historical basis: 5:06 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:06 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction: 2:18:55
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 33:05 (2:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:16:53 (30.3 km/h)
Run: 50:56 (5:06 / km)
Total: 2:18:55
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 23:43
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 561.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Nicole Ogrosso
USA
+87 s
+49 s
G2 / G3
Show details
Prediction details: Nicole Ogrosso

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 24:52
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +49 s
Fehler: 38.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (3 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.9 s
Gap behind: 72.1 s
Result: Group 3 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.45 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 24:52 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:10:54 (33.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:06
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 46.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Elizabeth Rose
USA
+0 s
+208 s
G0 / G4
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Rose

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:25
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +208 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 31.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:25 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Kristen Ullman
USA
+666 s
+298 s
G3 / G6
Show details
Prediction details: Kristen Ullman

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +666 s
Time: 34:31
Pace: 2:18 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +298 s
Fehler: 368.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 86.2 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.74 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 34:31 (2:18 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:16:53 (30.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:06
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 625.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 7 Louise Kedge
GBR
+159 s
+314 s
G3 / G7
Show details
Prediction details: Louise Kedge

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -7

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +159 s
Time: 26:04
Pace: 1:44 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +314 s
Fehler: -154.9 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 72.1 s
Gap behind: 415.0 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.16 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 26:04 (1:44 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:16:53 (30.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 23:43
Pace: 1:35 / 100 m
About 141.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +17.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 8 Małgorzata Fijałek Żuk
POL
+0 s
+8 s
G0 / G8
Show details
Prediction details: Małgorzata Fijałek Żuk

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:25
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +8 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 26.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:25 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Kimberley Gray
GBR
+0 s
+390 s
G0 / G9
Show details
Prediction details: Kimberley Gray

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:25
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +390 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 28.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:25 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Johanna Cade
GBR
+0 s
+351 s
G0 / G10
Show details
Prediction details: Johanna Cade

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:25
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +351 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 26.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:25 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Jaime Reel
USA
+0 s
+763 s
G0 / G12
Show details
Prediction details: Jaime Reel

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:25
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +763 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (1 people)
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:25 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Lauren Caskey
USA
+0 s
+408 s
G0 / G13
Show details
Prediction details: Lauren Caskey

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:25
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +408 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 13 (1 people)
Speed: 26.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:25 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Frances Mulinix
USA
+0 s
+613 s
G0 / G14
Show details
Prediction details: Frances Mulinix

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 23:25
Pace: 1:34 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +613 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 14 (1 people)
Speed: 26.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 23:25 (1:34 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Elizabeth Jarocki
USA
+574 s
+686 s
G3 / G15
Show details
Prediction details: Elizabeth Jarocki

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 15
Deviation: -15

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +574 s
Time: 32:59
Pace: 2:12 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +686 s
Fehler: -111.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 4 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 415.0 s
Gap behind: 5.7 s
Result: Group 15 (1 people)
Speed: 24.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.15 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: ()
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 32:59 (2:12 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 1:16:53 (30.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 24:06
Pace: 1:36 / 100 m
About 533.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +40.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.