Prediction comparison

70-74 Male AG

24.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP

Race information and calculation basis

2023 World Triathlon Age-Group Aquabike Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 24.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Add missing course distances

The API does not provide every distance. Values are stored in metres for the race.

Prediction model used

Modell v15 Default values

Prediction quality 25/100 sehr niedrig

Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 9.1 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Retrospective backtest without using the analysed race or later results.

Show methodology

Only after the historical calculation is the prediction compared with the actual result.

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors

Mean place error4.0

Mean swim error263.2 s

Mean bike-speed error3.52 km/h

Correct bike groups2/9

No history2

Within the 80% range9.1 %

						Details
1 / 1	Rick Kozlowski USA	+0 s +0 s	G1 / G1 correct	47:26	1:55:28	Show details Prediction details: Rick Kozlowski Placement Prediction: 1 80% range: 4–4 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 1 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 23:35 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +0 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 90 % Speed: 34.8 km/h Gap ahead: 0.0 s Gap behind: 27.0 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 31.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 3.42 km/h Running and total Run: 47:26 (4:45 / km) Historical basis: 4:45 / km Best comparable pace: 4:45 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 1:55:28 Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 23:35 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:02 (34.8 km/h) Run: 47:26 (4:45 / km) Total: 1:55:28
2 / 2	Michael Dunne GBR	+172 s +244 s	G2 / G1	52:12	2:12:06	Show details Prediction details: Michael Dunne Placement Prediction: 2 80% range: 5–5 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 2 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +172 s Time: 26:27 Pace: 1:46 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +244 s Fehler: -71.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 145.2 s Gap behind: 172.8 s Result: Group 1 (2 people) Speed: 32.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: -0.81 km/h Running and total Run: 52:12 (5:13 / km) Historical basis: 5:13 / km Best comparable pace: 5:13 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 2:12:06 Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 26:27 (1:46 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:13:59 (32.1 km/h) Run: 52:12 (5:13 / km) Total: 2:12:06 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 23:39 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 168.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 3	Steve Bulman GBR	+355 s +507 s	G2 / G2 correct	59:15	2:19:09	Show details Prediction details: Steve Bulman Placement Prediction: 3 80% range: 6–6 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 3 Deviation: 0 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +355 s Time: 29:30 Pace: 1:58 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +507 s Fehler: -151.9 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 10.1 s Gap behind: 98.1 s Result: Group 2 (1 people) Speed: 31.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.31 km/h Running and total Run: 59:15 (5:56 / km) Historical basis: 5:56 / km Best comparable pace: 5:56 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 2:19:09 Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80 Swimming: 29:30 (1:58 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:13:59 (32.1 km/h) Run: 59:15 (5:56 / km) Total: 2:19:09 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 23:39 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 351.2 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7	Robert Watson USA	+27 s +313 s	G2 / G5	1:02:33	2:22:27	Show details Prediction details: Robert Watson Placement Prediction: 4 80% range: 7–7 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 7 Deviation: -3 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +27 s Time: 24:02 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +313 s Fehler: -286.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 27.0 s Gap behind: 145.2 s Result: Group 5 (1 people) Speed: 27.1 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.93 km/h Running and total Run: 1:02:33 (6:15 / km) Historical basis: 6:15 / km Best comparable pace: 6:15 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 2:22:27 Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 24:02 (1:36 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:13:59 (32.1 km/h) Run: 1:02:33 (6:15 / km) Total: 2:22:27 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 23:39 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 23.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 9	Francisco Gala Pla ESP	+548 s +773 s	G4 / G7	59:15	2:40:15	Show details Prediction details: Francisco Gala Pla Placement Prediction: 5 80% range: 8–8 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 9 Deviation: -4 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +548 s Time: 32:43 Pace: 2:11 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +773 s Fehler: -224.6 s Cycling Prediction: Group 4 (1 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 25.8 km/h Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 77.4 s Gap behind: – Result: Group 7 (1 people) Speed: 24.0 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 1.80 km/h Running and total Run: 59:15 (5:55 / km) Historical basis: 5:55 / km Best comparable pace: 5:48 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 4 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 2:40:15 Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 32:43 (2:11 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:31:52 (25.8 km/h) Run: 59:15 (5:55 / km) Total: 2:40:15 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 23:39 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 544.5 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 11	Fabio De Mello BRA	+453 s +1050 s	G3 / G9	1:35:07	3:13:55	Show details Prediction details: Fabio De Mello Placement Prediction: 6 80% range: 9–9 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 11 Deviation: -5 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +453 s Time: 31:08 Pace: 2:05 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +1050 s Fehler: -596.8 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 26.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 98.1 s Gap behind: 17.8 s Result: Group 9 (1 people) Speed: 21.8 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 4.17 km/h Running and total Run: 1:35:07 (9:31 / km) Historical basis: 9:31 / km Best comparable pace: 9:31 / km Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 1 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: 3:13:55 Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 31:08 (2:05 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:30:57 (26.0 km/h) Run: 1:35:07 (9:31 / km) Total: 3:13:55 Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 23:39 Pace: 1:35 / 100 m About 449.3 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4	David Leak GBR	+0 s +379 s	G0 / G3			Show details Prediction details: David Leak Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 10–10 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 4 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 23:35 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +379 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 27.9 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 23:35 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5	Mark Folger USA	+0 s +354 s	G0 / G3			Show details Prediction details: Mark Folger Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 11–11 Top-10 probability: 0 % Result: 5 Deviation: Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 23:35 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +354 s Fehler: 0.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 0 (0 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 0.0 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: – Result: Group 3 (2 people) Speed: 28.4 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00 Swimming: 23:35 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): – Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6	Angel Santamaria Cuevas ESP	+0 s +209 s	G1 / G4			Show details Prediction details: Angel Santamaria Cuevas Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 1–1 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 6 Deviation: -6 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +0 s Time: 23:35 Pace: 1:34 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +209 s Fehler: -209.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 1 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 100 % Speed: 34.8 km/h Gap ahead: – Gap behind: 0.0 s Result: Group 4 (1 people) Speed: 26.5 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 8.29 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 23:35 (1:34 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:08:02 (34.8 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable
0 / 8	Manrico Colla ITA	+345 s +697 s	G2 / G6			Show details Prediction details: Manrico Colla Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 2–2 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 8 Deviation: -8 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +345 s Time: 29:20 Pace: 1:57 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +697 s Fehler: -352.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 2 (4 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 32.1 km/h Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 172.8 s Gap behind: 10.1 s Result: Group 6 (1 people) Speed: 26.3 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 5.75 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00 Swimming: 29:20 (1:57 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:13:59 (32.1 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 23:58 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m About 322.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 10	Robin Jones GBR	+471 s +948 s	G3 / G8			Show details Prediction details: Robin Jones Placement Prediction: 0 80% range: 3–3 Top-10 probability: 100 % Result: 10 Deviation: -10 Swimming Prognoseabstand: +471 s Time: 31:26 Pace: 2:06 / 100 m Ergebnisabstand: +948 s Fehler: -477.0 s Cycling Prediction: Group 3 (2 people) Gruppe 1: 0 % Speed: 26.0 km/h Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt Gap ahead: 17.8 s Gap behind: 77.4 s Result: Group 8 (1 people) Speed: 23.7 km/h Tempo-Fehler: 2.23 km/h Running and total Run: () Historical basis: Best comparable pace: Trend: +0:00 / km Comparable races: 0 Fallback calculation from other run distances Ergebnis Lauf: () Error: / Overall prediction: Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40 Swimming: 31:26 (2:06 / 100 m) To the end of cycling (group time): 1:30:57 (26.0 km/h) Run: – Total: not fully calculable Target first bike group at the bike finish Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group. Estimated requirement: Swim time: 23:58 Pace: 1:36 / 100 m About 448.1 s faster in the swim Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +22.9 s The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.

Prediction comparison

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