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25-29 Female AG Super Sprint

22.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Age-Group Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 20.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.6
Mean swim error65.8 s
Mean bike-speed error1.81 km/h
Correct bike groups2/7
No history3
Within the 80% range10.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 2 Jenny Gormley
USA
+58 s
+18 s
G2 / G2
correct 		5:49
5:45
 19:21
Show details
Prediction details: Jenny Gormley

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +58 s
Time: 5:48
Pace: 1:56 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +18 s
Fehler: 40.0 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 1 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 11.9 s
Gap behind: 63.5 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.43 km/h

Running and total

Run: 5:49 (3:38 / km)
Historical basis: 3:38 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:38 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 5:45 (3:36 / km)
Error: +0:04 / +0:03 / km
Overall prediction: 19:21
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 5:48 (1:56 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:57 (33.4 km/h)
Run: 5:49 (3:38 / km)
Total: 19:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:54
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 54.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
2 / 3 Olivia Christmann
USA
+122 s
+81 s
G2 / G3
 6:21
6:07
 19:53
Show details
Prediction details: Olivia Christmann

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +122 s
Time: 6:52
Pace: 2:17 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +81 s
Fehler: 40.5 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 63.5 s
Gap behind: 33.5 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 34.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:21 (3:58 / km)
Historical basis: 3:58 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:58 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:07 (3:49 / km)
Error: +0:14 / +0:09 / km
Overall prediction: 19:53
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 6:52 (2:17 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:57 (33.4 km/h)
Run: 6:21 (3:58 / km)
Total: 19:53
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:32
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 80.1 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +41.4 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Cho Ieng Lei
MAC
+46 s
+66 s
G2 / G3
 7:12
6:48
 20:44
Show details
Prediction details: Cho Ieng Lei

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +46 s
Time: 5:36
Pace: 1:52 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: -19.9 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 3, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 38.1 s
Gap behind: 11.9 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.77 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:12 (4:30 / km)
Historical basis: 4:30 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:30 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 3 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:48 (4:15 / km)
Error: +0:24 / +0:15 / km
Overall prediction: 20:44
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 5:36 (1:52 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:57 (33.4 km/h)
Run: 7:12 (4:30 / km)
Total: 20:44
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:54
Pace: 1:38 / 100 m
About 42.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 1 Aleksandra Bańbor
POL
+8 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct
6:04
Show details
Prediction details: Aleksandra Bańbor

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +8 s
Time: 4:58
Pace: 1:39 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 8.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 2, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 8.0 s
Gap behind: 38.1 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 35.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.40 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:04 (3:48 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 4:58 (1:39 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:30 (33.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 5 Eva Russell
GBR
+185 s
+66 s
G3 / G4
6:57
Show details
Prediction details: Eva Russell

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -5

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +185 s
Time: 7:55
Pace: 2:38 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +66 s
Fehler: 119.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 30.0 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.75 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:57 (4:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 2 Races · Confidence 0.40
Swimming: 7:55 (2:38 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:30 (33.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:05
Pace: 1:42 / 100 m
About 170.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +14.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Tilly Bland
GBR
+0 s
+147 s
G1 / G6
6:24
Show details
Prediction details: Tilly Bland

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:50
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +147 s
Fehler: -147.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 96 %
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 1, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 8.0 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -0.30 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:24 (4:00 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 4:50 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:30 (33.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
0 / 7 Anny Vargas
COL
+0 s
+109 s
G0 / G5
6:37
Show details
Prediction details: Anny Vargas

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:50
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +109 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:37 (4:08 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:50 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Cristina Cuevas Reinaldo
ESP
+0 s
+67 s
G0 / G7
6:45
Show details
Prediction details: Cristina Cuevas Reinaldo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:50
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +67 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:45 (4:13 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:50 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Melanie Bouchard
CAN
+0 s
+77 s
G0 / G8
8:31
Show details
Prediction details: Melanie Bouchard

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:50
Pace: 1:37 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 28.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:31 (5:19 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:50 (1:37 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Courtney Brick
GBR
+155 s
+69 s
G2 / G8
8:55
Show details
Prediction details: Courtney Brick

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 3–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -10

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +155 s
Time: 7:25
Pace: 2:28 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +69 s
Fehler: 86.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (4 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.5 s
Gap behind: 30.0 s
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 27.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 6.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:55 (5:34 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:25 (2:28 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:57 (33.4 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 5:32
Pace: 1:51 / 100 m
About 113 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +42 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.