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Prediction comparison

35-39 Female AG Super Sprint

22.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Age-Group Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v15 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 0.0 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.8
Mean swim error124.8 s
Mean bike-speed error2.85 km/h
Correct bike groups2/4
No history13
Within the 80% range5.9 %
Details
1 / 1 Ange Keen
NZL
+0 s
+14 s
G1 / G1
correct 		7:48
6:14
 17:18
Show details
Prediction details: Ange Keen

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +14 s
Fehler: -14.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 40.5 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 87.2 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 36.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.28 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:48 (4:52 / km)
Historical basis: 4:52 / km
Best comparable pace: 3:46 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 2
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:14 (3:54 / km)
Error: +1:34 / +0:58 / km
Overall prediction: 17:18
Data basis: 9 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 9:30 (40.5 km/h)
Run: 7:48 (4:52 / km)
Total: 17:18
2 / 3 Bronwyn Russel
CAN
+87 s
+77 s
G2 / G3
 6:35
6:38
 19:38
Show details
Prediction details: Bronwyn Russel

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 2–2
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +87 s
Time: 5:53
Pace: 1:58 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +77 s
Fehler: 10.2 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.1 km/h
Gap ahead: 87.2 s
Gap behind: 82.5 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 32.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.73 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:35 (4:07 / km)
Historical basis: 4:07 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:07 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:38 (4:09 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 19:38
Data basis: 4 Races · Confidence 0.80
Swimming: 5:53 (1:58 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:35 (33.1 km/h)
Run: 6:35 (4:07 / km)
Total: 19:38
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 83.3 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 4 Gemma Brown
GBR
+170 s
+70 s
G3 / G3
correct 		8:38
7:11
 22:21
Show details
Prediction details: Gemma Brown

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 3–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +170 s
Time: 7:16
Pace: 2:25 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +70 s
Fehler: 99.7 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 35.3 km/h
Gap ahead: 82.5 s
Gap behind: 296.4 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 33.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 2.26 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:38 (5:24 / km)
Historical basis: 5:24 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:24 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:11 (4:29 / km)
Error: +1:27 / +0:55 / km
Overall prediction: 22:21
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 7:16 (2:25 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 10:53 (35.3 km/h)
Run: 8:38 (5:24 / km)
Total: 22:21
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 165.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 17 Irma Araceli González Lee
MEX
+466 s
+91 s
G4 / G12
 9:22
7:18
 28:37
Show details
Prediction details: Irma Araceli González Lee

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 4–4
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 17
Deviation: -13

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +466 s
Time: 12:12
Pace: 4:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +91 s
Fehler: 375.1 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 33.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 296.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (2 people)
Speed: 29.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 4.13 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:22 (5:51 / km)
Historical basis: 5:51 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:51 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:18 (4:34 / km)
Error: +2:04 / +1:18 / km
Overall prediction: 28:37
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 12:12 (4:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:29 (33.4 km/h)
Run: 9:22 (5:51 / km)
Total: 28:37
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 4:30
Pace: 1:30 / 100 m
About 462.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +3.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 2 Wendy Seguine
USA
+0 s
+30 s
G0 / G2
6:48
Show details
Prediction details: Wendy Seguine

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 5–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +30 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 33.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:48 (4:15 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 5 Irene Fleitas Imbernon
ESP
+0 s
+0 s
G0 / G5
6:57
Show details
Prediction details: Irene Fleitas Imbernon

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:57 (4:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 6 Amy Delashmit
USA
+0 s
+85 s
G0 / G5
6:56
Show details
Prediction details: Amy Delashmit

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +85 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (2 people)
Speed: 32.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:56 (4:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 7 Zelmare Viljoen
UAE
+0 s
+48 s
G0 / G4
6:56
Show details
Prediction details: Zelmare Viljoen

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 8–8
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +48 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 32.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:56 (4:20 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 8 Carmen Fuerte Carillo
ESP
+0 s
+68 s
G0 / G8
6:28
Show details
Prediction details: Carmen Fuerte Carillo

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 9–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +68 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 30.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:28 (4:03 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Sarah Perrin
GBR
+0 s
+136 s
G0 / G7
6:40
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Perrin

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +136 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 33.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:40 (4:10 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 10 Micaela Gonzalez Kail
USA
+0 s
+31 s
G0 / G6
7:11
Show details
Prediction details: Micaela Gonzalez Kail

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 10
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +31 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 31.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:11 (4:29 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 11 Phoenix Bean
UAE
+0 s
+58 s
G0 / G7
6:57
Show details
Prediction details: Phoenix Bean

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 11
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +58 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 7 (2 people)
Speed: 31.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:57 (4:21 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 12 Bri Rive
CAN
+0 s
+99 s
G0 / G8
7:31
Show details
Prediction details: Bri Rive

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 13–13
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +99 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (2 people)
Speed: 31.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:31 (4:42 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 13 Ashley Ingram
USA
+0 s
+71 s
G0 / G9
7:46
Show details
Prediction details: Ashley Ingram

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 14–14
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 13
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +71 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 30.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:46 (4:51 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 14 Jessica Morgan
USA
+0 s
+101 s
G0 / G10
7:24
Show details
Prediction details: Jessica Morgan

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 15–15
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 14
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +101 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 28.7 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:24 (4:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 15 Kitiara Pascoe
GBR
+0 s
+152 s
G0 / G11
7:21
Show details
Prediction details: Kitiara Pascoe

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 16–16
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 15
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +152 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:21 (4:36 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 16 Marina Serrano Liria
ESP
+0 s
+182 s
G0 / G12
7:33
Show details
Prediction details: Marina Serrano Liria

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 17–17
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 16
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 4:26
Pace: 1:29 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +182 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 12 (2 people)
Speed: 27.2 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:33 (4:43 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 4:26 (1:29 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.