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Prediction comparison

60-64 Female AG Super Sprint

22.09.2023 Pontevedra ESP
Race information and calculation basis
2023 World Triathlon Age-Group Championships Pontevedra

Datengrundlage: maximal zwölf Starts je Athlet:in, die zeitlich strikt vor 22.09.2023 liegen. Neuere Leistungen und direkte Duelle werden mit einer Halbwertszeit von 300 Tagen stärker gewichtet.

Prediction model used
Modell v14 Default values
Prediction quality 20/100 sehr niedrig
Show model parameters and data quality

Not yet sufficiently calibrated – conservative defaults are used.

Einzelabstand ≤ 4 s Gruppenspanne ≤ 14 s Gruppeneffekt 0.65 Max. Vorteil 2.2 km/h

Datenabdeckung 0.0 % · Head-to-Head-Abdeckung 58.3 % · 0 Kalibrierungsrennen

Prediction comparison

Summary of prediction errors
Mean place error3.2
Mean swim error152.6 s
Mean bike-speed error1.35 km/h
Correct bike groups3/10
No history2
Within the 80% range25.0 %
Place
Prediction / result		 Athlete Swimming
Prediction / result		 Bike group
Prediction / result		 Run
Prediction / result		 Overall prediction Details
1 / 1 Michele Tuttle
USA
+56 s
+0 s
G1 / G1
correct 		7:07
6:51
 19:22
Show details
Prediction details: Michele Tuttle

Placement

Prediction: 1
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 1
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +56 s
Time: 6:20
Pace: 2:07 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +0 s
Fehler: 56.0 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 1 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 100 %
Speed: 33.9 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: 51.7 s
Result: Group 1 (1 people)
Speed: 32.6 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.34 km/h

Running and total

Run: 7:07 (4:27 / km)
Historical basis: 4:27 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:27 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 6:51 (4:17 / km)
Error: +0:16 / +0:10 / km
Overall prediction: 19:22
Data basis: 12 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 6:20 (2:07 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:19 (33.9 km/h)
Run: 7:07 (4:27 / km)
Total: 19:22
2 / 2 Lisa Marquis
USA
+108 s
+36 s
G2 / G2
correct 		6:48
7:16
 20:18
Show details
Prediction details: Lisa Marquis

Placement

Prediction: 2
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 2
Deviation: 0

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +108 s
Time: 7:12
Pace: 2:24 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 71.7 s
H2H: 1 Gegner:innen, 1 Duelle, Korrektur 0.24 %, Sicherheit 1 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 2 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 32.8 km/h
Gap ahead: 51.7 s
Gap behind: 27.2 s
Result: Group 2 (1 people)
Speed: 32.5 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.36 km/h

Running and total

Run: 6:48 (4:15 / km)
Historical basis: 4:15 / km
Best comparable pace: 4:15 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:16 (4:33 / km)
Error: −0:28 / −0:17 / km
Overall prediction: 20:18
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:12 (2:24 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:42 (32.8 km/h)
Run: 6:48 (4:15 / km)
Total: 20:18
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:24
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
About 47.8 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
3 / 5 Sarah Jeffries
GBR
+155 s
+74 s
G4 / G3
 8:41
10:33
 23:45
Show details
Prediction details: Sarah Jeffries

Placement

Prediction: 3
80% range: 6–6
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 5
Deviation: -2

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +155 s
Time: 7:59
Pace: 2:40 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +74 s
Fehler: 80.9 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 4, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.0 s
Gap behind: 33.1 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 32.9 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.07 km/h

Running and total

Run: 8:41 (5:26 / km)
Historical basis: 5:26 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:26 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:33 (6:36 / km)
Error: −1:52 / −1:10 / km
Overall prediction: 23:45
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 7:59 (2:40 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:56 (30.8 km/h)
Run: 8:41 (5:26 / km)
Total: 23:45
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:24
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
About 95 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
4 / 7 Susan Henley
GBR
+135 s
+168 s
G3 / G9
 9:04
9:07
 23:56
Show details
Prediction details: Susan Henley

Placement

Prediction: 4
80% range: 7–7
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 7
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +135 s
Time: 7:39
Pace: 2:33 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +168 s
Fehler: -33.1 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 3 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.4 km/h
Gap ahead: 27.2 s
Gap behind: 20.0 s
Result: Group 9 (1 people)
Speed: 27.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 3.09 km/h

Running and total

Run: 9:04 (5:40 / km)
Historical basis: 5:40 / km
Best comparable pace: 5:40 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:07 (5:42 / km)
Error: −0:03 / −0:02 / km
Overall prediction: 23:56
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 7:39 (2:33 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 12:37 (30.4 km/h)
Run: 9:04 (5:40 / km)
Total: 23:56
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:23
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
About 75.9 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
5 / 11 Chris Childs
GBR
+250 s
+222 s
G6 / G11
 10:09
8:24
 27:58
Show details
Prediction details: Chris Childs

Placement

Prediction: 5
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 11
Deviation: -6

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +250 s
Time: 9:34
Pace: 3:11 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +222 s
Fehler: 27.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 7, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 20.5 s
Gap behind: 132.4 s
Result: Group 11 (1 people)
Speed: 26.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 1.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:09 (6:21 / km)
Historical basis: 6:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:24 (5:15 / km)
Error: +1:45 / +1:06 / km
Overall prediction: 27:58
Data basis: 6 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:34 (3:11 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (28.3 km/h)
Run: 10:09 (6:21 / km)
Total: 27:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:24
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
About 189.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
6 / 10 Debbie Croydon
GBR
+229 s
+88 s
G5 / G7
 10:12
9:21
 27:58
Show details
Prediction details: Debbie Croydon

Placement

Prediction: 6
80% range: 8–9
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 10
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +229 s
Time: 9:13
Pace: 3:04 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +88 s
Fehler: 141.1 s
H2H: 3 Gegner:innen, 3 Duelle, Korrektur -0.04 %, Sicherheit 6 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 5 (1 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 27.5 km/h
Initial Gruppe 6, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 41.1 s
Gap behind: 20.5 s
Result: Group 7 (1 people)
Speed: 27.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.22 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:12 (6:23 / km)
Historical basis: 6:23 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:23 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:21 (5:51 / km)
Error: +0:51 / +0:32 / km
Overall prediction: 27:58
Data basis: 5 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 9:13 (3:04 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 13:57 (27.5 km/h)
Run: 10:12 (6:23 / km)
Total: 27:58
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:24
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
About 169.2 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
7 / 8 Maureen Graszat
CAN
+443 s
+153 s
G7 / G6
 10:09
9:03
 30:49
Show details
Prediction details: Maureen Graszat

Placement

Prediction: 7
80% range: 10–10
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 8
Deviation: -1

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +443 s
Time: 12:47
Pace: 4:16 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +153 s
Fehler: 289.6 s
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 9, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 60.6 s
Gap behind: 83.4 s
Result: Group 6 (1 people)
Speed: 28.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.17 km/h

Running and total

Run: 10:09 (6:21 / km)
Historical basis: 6:21 / km
Best comparable pace: 6:21 / km
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 1
H2H: 2 Gegner:innen, 2 Duelle, Korrektur 0.00 %, Sicherheit 5 %
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:03 (5:39 / km)
Error: +1:06 / +0:41 / km
Overall prediction: 30:49
Data basis: 3 Races · Confidence 0.60
Swimming: 12:47 (4:16 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:54 (29.0 km/h)
Run: 10:09 (6:21 / km)
Total: 30:49
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 6:24
Pace: 2:08 / 100 m
About 382.7 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +59.9 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 3 Catherine Alderton
NZL
+382 s
+36 s
G6 / G3
7:06
Show details
Prediction details: Catherine Alderton

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 2–3
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 3
Deviation: -3

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +382 s
Time: 11:46
Pace: 3:55 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +36 s
Fehler: 346.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 6 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 28.3 km/h
Initial Gruppe 8, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 132.4 s
Gap behind: 60.6 s
Result: Group 3 (2 people)
Speed: 31.0 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: -2.72 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 7:06 (4:26 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 7 Races · Confidence 1.00
Swimming: 11:46 (3:55 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:27 (28.3 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:08
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
About 278.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +103.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 4 Sandra Stewart
GBR
+188 s
+60 s
G4 / G4
correct
8:08
Show details
Prediction details: Sandra Stewart

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 1–1
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 4
Deviation: -4

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +188 s
Time: 8:32
Pace: 2:51 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +60 s
Fehler: 128.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 4 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 30.8 km/h
Initial Gruppe 5, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 33.1 s
Gap behind: 41.1 s
Result: Group 4 (1 people)
Speed: 29.8 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.95 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:08 (5:05 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 8:32 (2:51 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:56 (30.8 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:08
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
About 84.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +103.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 6 Sara Bartlett
GBR
+0 s
+62 s
G0 / G5
8:49
Show details
Prediction details: Sara Bartlett

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 11–11
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 6
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:24
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +62 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 5 (1 people)
Speed: 28.1 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 8:49 (5:31 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:24 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.
0 / 9 Ulla Petter
GER
+526 s
+174 s
G7 / G8
9:01
Show details
Prediction details: Ulla Petter

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 4–5
Top-10 probability: 100 %
Result: 9
Deviation: -9

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +526 s
Time: 14:10
Pace: 4:43 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +174 s
Fehler: 352.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 7 (2 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 29.0 km/h
Initial Gruppe 10, später eingeholt/vereinigt
Gap ahead: 83.4 s
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 8 (1 people)
Speed: 28.4 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.63 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 9:01 (5:38 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 1 Races · Confidence 0.20
Swimming: 14:10 (4:43 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): 11:54 (29.0 km/h)
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Goal: finish the bike split with the first bike group.
Estimated requirement:
Swim time: 7:08
Pace: 2:23 / 100 m
About 422.4 s faster in the swim
Maximum predicted gap after the swim: +103.6 s
The complete bike-group simulation, including catches and group mergers, is recalculated through the end of the bike split.
0 / 12 Linda Johns
USA
+0 s
+105 s
G0 / G10
10:39
Show details
Prediction details: Linda Johns

Placement

Prediction: 0
80% range: 12–12
Top-10 probability: 0 %
Result: 12
Deviation:

Swimming

Prognoseabstand: +0 s
Time: 5:24
Pace: 1:48 / 100 m
Ergebnisabstand: +105 s
Fehler: 0.0 s

Cycling

Prediction: Group 0 (0 people)
Gruppe 1: 0 %
Speed: 0.0 km/h
Gap ahead: –
Gap behind: –
Result: Group 10 (1 people)
Speed: 26.3 km/h
Tempo-Fehler: 0.00 km/h

Running and total

Run: ()
Historical basis:
Best comparable pace:
Trend: +0:00 / km
Comparable races: 0
Fallback calculation from other run distances
Ergebnis Lauf: 10:39 (6:39 / km)
Error: /
Overall prediction:
Data basis: 0 Races · Confidence 0.00
Swimming: 5:24 (1:48 / 100 m)
To the end of cycling (group time): –
Run: –
Total: not fully calculable
Target first bike group at the bike finish
Cannot be calculated without a swim distance or historical swim data.